pacific_action

Maxey o30.5 PTS+AST:
Maxey crushed this number in each of the first three games of this series, averaging 38.0 PTS+AST. He is coming off an under in Game 4, posting just 29 PTS+AST on a 8-21 shooting night, but I think this is a good opportunity to buy-low.

He has taken at least 21 FGA in every game in this series and hit this number in 76 percent of games when taking that many shots in the regular season. He is also leading PHI in potential assists in this series at 11.8 per game and with Embiid clearly no where close to 100%, the ball is going to be in his hands a ton.

Maxey played 43 mins in Game 4, expect him to play 45+ in this game if not all 48. I think he’s going to continue to have a massive offensive usage and should bounce back to hit this number.

Lopez u8.5 REB+AST:
Lopez hit this number in Game 4, grabbing 9 rebounds and adding 1 assist, but that in no way is indicative of his typical production.

After Bobby Portis got ejected, Lopez had no choice to crash the glass harder than usual but his typical production is much lower. Not only did he go under in each of the first three games of this series, averaging 6.0 REB+AST, he also went under in all five regular season meetings with IND, averaging 5.0 REB+AST.

With Portis back and the offense running through Middleton, Lopez should regress back to his typical production and go under this number.

Banchero u4.5 AST:
Starting in Game 3, ORL adjusted their offensive strategy a bit and moved Paolo more off-ball after he turned the ball over so much in Games 1 and 2. That did open up his efficiency as a slasher, but it also limited the number of opportunities he had to create assists.

While he did hit in both Games 3 and 4, he averaged just 6.5 potentials in those games. I don’t expect ORL’s offense to drop down to the abysmal levels we saw in the first two games of this series but I do expect some regression for this young team going on the road. With Banchero creating so few opportunities within the offense, I think this is worth a half-unit play at plus odds.

White u8.5 REB+AST:
White had 8 REB+AST in Game 3 of this series, extending his under streak against the Heat to 10 of their last 13 meetings, including 9 of 10 in the Playoffs.

While he is second on the Celtics in potential assists behind Tatum, he is spending far more time off-ball in this series than he did in the regular season. He is also just sixth on the Celtics in rebound chances, way down at just 6.3 per game.

He has become a clear secondary playmaker in this offense and is never going to grab more than a few chance rebounds. In this slow matchup against a tough Heat defense, I don’t see White breaking his streak in this game.

Dort u9.5 PTS:
Dort got hot from deep and hit this number in both Games 2 and 3 but his production is completely unsustainable.

78 percent of his FGA in this series have been from three and he’s shooting an absurd 55.3 percent on those shots. Even on mostly wide-open looks, this is a high-30s 3PT shooter and that efficiency is bound to regress.

Dort has not made a 2PT FG in this series and is just 3-4 from the FT line (all attempts coming in Game 2). Getting this like with the hook at 9.5 is massive because it gives us an outside shot at a W even if he hits 3 3PM and I feel great about this regression under.

Jokic o50.5 PRA:
Jokic has hit this number in three of four games in this series, averaging 54.3 PRA/gm. Now he’s motivated coming off DEN’s first loss in forever against LAL and he hit this number in all four games following a loss in last year’s playoffs, averaging an astronomical 60.5 PRA.

Jamal Murray is questionable for this game and, while I fully expect him to play, if he is out or not 100%, that pushes even more usage to Jokic. This is suddenly a crucial game as DEN does not want this series to get back to LA and I think we get a monster, series-ending performance from Jokic here.