CallingOurShot

Good morning again! Finally, a winning NBA day. Let’s hopefully turn that into some momentum today. Love all 3 of these picks below.

Season to Date: +30.69 Units

The Picks:
1u - Jalen Brunson (NYK) OVER 38.5 Points+Assists (-112, DraftKings)
1u - Andrew Nembhard (IND) OVER 9.5 Points (-102, DraftKings)
1u - Nikola Jokic (DEN) OVER 27.5 Points (-118, DraftKings)

Analysis:

1u - Jalen Brunson (NYK) OVER 38.5 Points+Assists (-112, DraftKings)
Playable at 39.5
I love his OVER in Points, and he’s certainly due some luck in the assists department.
This Series, Brunson:
Game 1: 49 PAs
Game 2: 34 PAs
Game 3: 32 PAs
He’s attempted 26, 18 (injury) & 26 FGAs.
Is Brunson banged up? Yes. But, every player is banged up. The Knicks need him to carry them offensively, especially without Anunoby.
The Big Ragu has played great, but this Knicks team doesn’t have the scoring to keep up with the Pacers.
Our System Play this season has been to back Brunson after a bad shooting outing. Well…Game 3 counted as such. He shot 10/26 (38%) and missed 4 of 7 FTAs.
While the Pacers are typically a team to limit the assists, I don’t mind tacking them on here.
Brunson’s Points line is 32.5. His Assists line is 6.5. Typically, that would warrant a 39.5 P+A line, but we are getting 38.5 here.
Brunson had 13 potential assists last game. He’s had 6, 5 & 6 assists so far this series, converting his assist chances to assists at a 48% clip.
I could see some positive regression coming here for the assists as well as the points. If he shoots that poorly again, so be it. But the FGAs will be there and he’s always capable of getting 10-15 FTAs.

1u - Andrew Nembhard (IND) OVER 9.5 Points (-102, DraftKings)
Playable to -125
There’s an 8.5 line but that’s like -135 so I’ll take the line 1 higher which is nearly + value.
In Game 3, we faded Nembhard. He played only 11 minutes in the 1st half due to foul trouble. He ended with 5 Points on 2/8 shooting.
Nembhard missed some VERY easy shots. That’s the advantage of taking an UNDER. Well, regardless of missing those big shots, he remained confident and hit the biggest shot of the game that sealed it for Indiana.
I anticipate he comes into this game with added confidence and plays much better than he did last game.
In Game 1, Nembhard scored 11 Points (4/10 FGAs) in 29 minutes. In Game 2, 15 Points (7/9 FGAs) in 27 minutes. Game 3, 5 Points (2/8 FGAs) in 31 Minutes.
TJ McConnell’s bench unit played very poorly so Nembhard got a few extra minutes. While I don’t think he sees the 36ish minutes he was seeing in the Bucks series, I still do believe he gets close to 30 minutes.
I like his ability to stay out of foul trouble tonight. Aaron Nesmith had a lot of success defensively against Brunson. The Pacers will go back to Nesmith on Brunson, which should limit Nembhard’s chances at foul trouble.
Ultimately, the Knicks have been burned in this series by Haliburton (twice), Turner (twice), Siakam (last game), and burned a ton by Nesmith in the Regular Season. If there’s a guy they will live with beating them, I feel that is Nembhard.
If you look at his shot chart from Game 3, he missed some EASY shots. 1 for 5 within a few feet. He didn’t score his first points until below 2 minutes in the last game. I like him to get some open look

1u - Nikola Jokic (DEN) OVER 27.5 Points (-118, DraftKings)
Playable to 28.5
This is a play I just have to run back.
In Game 3, Jokic finished with 24 Points (10/18 FGAs). He only scored 7 Points in the 1st Half. He did not play the final 5 minutes of the game.
Even after a terrible half, Jokic still got very close to this line, the game just wasn’t competitive.
The Timberwolves made the mistake of letting everyone else get going. Jamal Murray had 24 (a large majority in the first half), MPJ had 21, Aaron Gordon 13, KCP 12.
The Timberwolves can’t allow that to happen again. They can live with Jokic getting his, but not the other guys.
The Timberwolves have done a pretty solid job 1 on 1 on Jokic. And they should stick to that instead of helping with other defenders and letting Jokic kick it out to shooters or dump it down to AG.
We’ve seen what happens when you run back my plays that lost the game before, they typically smack. Let’s hope this is another one that hits. I really see him getting 18-22 FGAs and that should be enough if he shoots it somewhat okay.

Good morning. MLB Picks are here. 3 straight winning days. Let’s make it a 3rd.

Season to Date: -1.28 Units

The Picks:
1u - Orioles Moneyline (-122, FanDuel)
1u - Kyle Harrison (SFG) OVER 15.5 Outs (-125, Bet365)
1u - Rangers/Rockies OVER 11 (-105, DraftKings)

The Analysis:

1u - Orioles Moneyline (-122, FanDuel)
Start Time: 1:35 PM ET
Starting Pitchers:
Zac Gallen (ARI)
Dean Kremer (BAL)
Gallen is + value for a reason. It’s Orioles to finish off the series sweep
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles: 3.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP
On the season, Arizona is 28th in average and OPS vs righties
Arizona is only hitting .211 against righties in their last 3 games
They did their damage against the lefty Means as I predicted they would. I don’t have faith in them getting to Kremer
Gallen could pitch well and still not win because I don’t trust he will have run support
Zac Gallen starts for the Dbacks: 2.84 ERA and 1.13 WHIP
Gallen has a 0.53 ERA at home and 4.71 ERA on the road
Gallen is 52nd percentile in chase and 51st whiff %, and 4th percentile in hard hit %
Orioles are hitting .265 against righties in their last 3 games
Gallen is worse against lefties: .200 BA/.536 OPS is righties vs .242 BA/.755 OPS to lefties
Baltimore can stack lefties: Gunnar, Adley, Santander, Cowser, Mullins
Arizona is 21st in bullpen ERA and Baltimore is 7th in bullpen ERA

1u - Kyle Harrison (SFG) OVER 15.5 Outs (-125, Bet365)
Playable to -145.
Start Time: 4:05 PM ET
The Giants used 5 bullpen arms yesterday, 2 guys being used on back to back days AND they have the Dodgers on deck tomorrow, they need length out of Kyle Harrison today.
Harrison is OVER this line in 5 out of 8 starts. In his UNDERS, he allowed 10, 9 & 8 base runners. He also hit a batter in each UNDER.
His UNDERS came against LAD, BOS & ARI.
All 3 of those offenses are respectable. Today, I am not afraid of the Reds offense.
Over the last 2 weeks, here’s how the Reds have done against Left Handed Pitching: .188 BA (3rd lowest), .258 OBP (5th lowest) & 48 wRC+ (3rd lowest).
They’ve faced 3 lefties, who went 6.1, 7 & 7 IP.
Last year, Harrison pitched well at home: 2.66 ERA & 1.08 WHIP. He allowed a .195 BA at home (compared to .259 on the Road).
Kyle Harrison faced the Reds once in his career. His 2nd ever start last August. 6.1 IP, 3 Hits, 0 ER & 11 Strikeouts.
Harrison is 15th out of 77 qualified pitchers in fewest pitches per inning. If we can get 1 or 2 quick innings, we should be good.
His last start he threw only 86 pitches (in 7 IP). He’s thrown up to 95 this season, I have faith in Kyle.

1u - Rangers/Rockies OVER 11 (-105, DraftKings)
Start Time: 3:10 PM ET
Starting Pitchers:
Jose Urena (TEX)
Ty Blach (COL)
After seeing 6 and 11 runs in this series, the total line is up from 10.5 to 11 today. This one is going over by a good margin
Ty Blach starts for the Rockies: 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP
Blach might not go past 3 or 4 IP but he’s 1st percentile in whiff and K%.
Rangers are batting .278 vs lefties in their last 3 games
Rangers are 1st in batting average and OPS with runners in scoring position
This offense is sitting on a 7+ run performance
Jose Urena starts for the Rangers: 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP
Urena has a career 5.73 ERA at Coors field in his career and an 8.76 ERA pitching at Coors last year
The reason Urena pitches poorly in Coors is because he uses a lot of slider/sinker/changeup. The movement of those pitches in the zone at altitude is different.
Urena doesn’t strike anyone out (15th percentile in K %) and still walks plenty of batters (32nd percentile in BB%)
After scoring 8 yesterday, I am able to trust the Rockies to put some hits together
Texas is 28th in bullpen ERA, Colorado is 22nd in bullpen ERA
There should be run opportunities even once the starters are out