2024 NFL: -5.65 Units
Gus Edwards Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Risk 1.1 Units
When JK Dobbins got injured against the Ravens four weeks ago, OC Greg Roman said they would go with whoever had the “hot hand.” In their next game against the Falcons, the Chargers only ran the ball 11 times in a bizarre game in which they should have lost. Herbert only had 23 attempts in that game passing, just total low volume all around. Gus led the team in yards per carry and attempts, but it was just 6 for 32 yards.
In their next game against the Chiefs, Gus led the team again in carries and yards, with 10 attempts for 36 yards. He wasn’t very efficient, nor Kimani Vidal, so no hot hand had been established.
Last week, they got walloped by the Buccaneers, so the run game was generally out of wack. Gus and Vidal weren’t efficient, but Gus had eight carries to Vidal’s 3.
The Chargers should have a playoff spot even if they lose this game, but the odds go up to 97% with a win, and after losing 3 of their last four, and should be 4 of 4, I think they’ll give it to the veteran over the rookie, Vidal just hasn’t taken over this job.
The Broncos’ run defense ranks 6th in rushing yards this season, it’s been a great run defense overall, but lately, they’ve been run on.
Over the entire season, they rank second in yards per carry at 3.9. Over the last 3 weeks, that number goes up to 4.2, and last week, Jonathan Taylor torched them, and the ground game averaged 4.7 yards per carry. They’ve also faced three straight QBs they can stack the box against in Anthony Richardson, Jameis Winston, and Aiden O’Connell. You can’t really do that against Justin Herbert, especially when he has Ladd McConkey in there.
The interior defensive line for the Broncos is also banged up. DJ Jones was a DNP on Monday and limited in practice on Tuesday. John Franklin-Myers has yet to practice with a foot injury. For a running back like Gus Edwards, who runs in between the tackles and doesn’t have the nickname Gus Bus for no reason, he has a more significant chance of breaking through one of these holes.
If the Chargers give Gus ten carries, which I think they will, and I’ll explain even more why when we talk about the total, he would have to average 3.4 yards per carry to go over this. With the Broncos’ run defense trending in the wrong direction, that should be attainable. JK Dobbins ran the ball 25 times against this Broncos defense in their first matchup, and while Gamescript had a factor in this one, the Chargers should continue to establish the ground game. With the upside for even more carries in this one, give me over 33.5 rushing yards to win one unit for Gus Edwards, playable to 35.5.
Broncos vs Chargers Under 42.5 (-115) Risk 1.15 Units
So let’s talk about the total. The Broncos defensive line is an absolute force against opposing QB’s. They rank 2nd in pressure rate, 6th in pass rush win rate and rank number one in dropback EPA. Nik Bonitto has emerged as an elite edge rusher and ranks 14th among all edge rushers in pass rush win rate. Zach Allen ranks first among all defensive tackles in pass rush win rate.
The Broncos combine their elite edge rush with the best secondaries in the league led by Pat Surtain. They rank 1st in EPA per play against dropbacks and have allowed the second lowest success rate on dropbacks in the league. In the first matchup between the Chargers and Dolphins, Herbert tried to push the ball downfield, as evidenced by his intended air yards average of 8.7 yards. The caveat is that his average completed air yards in that game was only 5.3 yards. You can try to push the ball deep against the Broncos, but you won’t be rewarded.
This is why establishing the run is so important for LA, and what led them to victory in the first matchup. I don’t expect 20 carries for Gus in this one, but he should get enough volume to surpass 33.5 rushing yards, even if he’s not very efficient.
By all accounts, the Chargers offense is below average. They rank 17th in EPA per play on the year and have averaged 21 points per game, which ranks 20th. The offensive struggles get turned up a notch when they step up in class. In three games against top 10 defenses by EPA per play, the Chargers averaged under 17 points per game.
From weeks 1-8, the Chargers defense ranked second in EPA per play against. There were questions about how they’d fare against superior opponents after facing primarily bottom 10 offenses across their first eight matchups. The answer is that the Chargers’ defense regressed when facing top-tier offenses like the Bengals, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bucs. Since week 9, they rank 18th in EPA per play.
I know that data point sounds bad, but the Broncos, who rank 23rd in EPA per play on offense, are far from a top-10 offense. The Chargers defense may not be as elite as we were led to believe early in the season, but they’re still a formidable unit that can stop a below-average Broncos offense. Especially after giving up 40 points, and now facing a divisional opponent, we should get 100% effort in this one from the Chargers defense.
The Chargers’ heavy zone defense should continue to give Bo Nix problems. The Chargers play the fifth most zone in the league, and Nix’s numbers against zone fall off a cliff. He has the 15th best completion percentage in the league against men, drops to 35th against zone, and has one of the worst marks in the NFL. The same thing goes with his passer rating. Against man, it’s 93.6. Against zone, it’s 78.6, 34th in the league.
Outdoor divisional unders are a 60% trend overall. In outdoor divisional games, the under is 291-190-12, (60% hit rate) with a 17% ROI.
The line for this total when they played last time was 37.5, but it ended 23-16, so the over hit with 39 points. Both teams are coming off games in which the over-hit, but we expect the Chargers defense to bounce back, and the Broncos put up 31 points with less than 200 yards of offense, which is entirely unsustainable. This total should be 41, so at 42.5, I bet the under at -115 to win one unit.
