NFL 2024: -4.55 Units
Jordan Love Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-120) Risk 1.2 Units
We’ll start with Jordan Love, as it’s a similar handicap to the Jameis Winston prop that we cashed with ease.
The few teams that rank towards the bottom of passing attempts allowed follow a pattern. The Broncos are 27th in passing attempts allowed because they have a very good offense that forces you to keep up, and it’s combined with a stout run defense that makes it diffcult to catch up by running the football.
The Lions fit this mold to a tee, and actually rank a spot below the Broncos at 28th in the league. They also have a better run defense this year by EPA than Denver does, and are coming off a game in which they held D’Andre Swift to just 39 yards on 11 carries. They did the same thing to Jonathan Taylor, limiting him to just 11 carries on 35 yards.
The Lions injuries on defense are definitely piling up, but even over the last four weeks, they rank 7th in rush EPA, one spot ahead of Denver.
Josh Jacobs is an exceptional running back, and the Packers have won three games in a row by relying more on the ground game than Jordan Love’s arm. Jacobs had 95 yards against this Lions team, and with Loves’ inconsistency, I believe the Lions will make stopping Jacobs their number one priority in this one, and they have the run defense to make stops.
This lends us more of a pass-heavy game script for Green Bay. The Lions have proven that almost nobody can stop them at home, so Love will have to keep up by using his arm. Even though he’s been under his passing attempts line in three straight games, I believe we see a pendulum swing where he’s sligning the rock more than usual.
Jordan Love has been over 32.5 passing attempts in two of three games against the Lions in his career, and had 39 passing attempts when they played them a month ago.
If we look at the last three games he’s gone under this line, it was two blowouts with the Packers being on the winning side, and then he threw for 261 yards on just 17 attempts against a Bears team, but in general that was a strange game where the Bears dominated time of possession.
What we do know is that in games against the Lions that have been decided by 14 points or less, quarterbacks have exceeded 32.5 passing attempts in six of eight games.
Week 1: Rams vs Lions (20-26)
Matthew Stafford - 34-49 (317 yards passing) in Detroit
Week 2: Bucs vs Lions (20-16)
Baker Mayfield: 12-19 (185 yards passing) in Detroit
Week 3: Lions vs Cardinals (20-13)
Kyler Murray - 21-34 (207 passing yards) in Arizona
Week 4: Seahawks vs Lions (29-42)
Geno Smith - 38-56 (395 yards passing) in Detroit
Week 6: Lions vs Vikings (31-29)
Sam Darnold - 22-27 (259 yards passing) in Minnesota
Week 7: Lions vs Packers (24-14)
Jordan Love 23-39 (273 yards passing) in Green Bay
Lions vs Texans (26-23)
CJ Stroud 19-33 (232 yards passing) in Houston
Week 13 Bears vs Lions (20-23)
Caleb Williams 20-39 (256 yards passing) in Detroit
His median line is just 30 passing attempts this season, but in a matchup like this indoors against this Lions offense, I project 36 passing attempts for Love, so give me Jordan Love over 32.5 passing attempts at -120 on BetMGM to win one unit. I would play this up to 34.5 if the line were to move.
Jared Goff Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-115) Risk 1.15 Units
We move to the other QB in this game, Jared Goff. We are also backing him to throw the ball, but with how efficient Goff has been this season, I think passing yards are the way to go here.
The first time the Lions played the Packers, Goff only had 145 yards. It was a weird game, the Lions got an early lead, and then Love threw a pick 6, giving the ball back to Green Bay. The Lions had a 24-3 lead by the third quarter, so they just ran the ball out. The game was never in doubt, and Goff only had four incompletions, but due to the game script, he didn’t have to throw much.
QBs against the Green Bay Packers have been over 250 passing yards in seven of the 12 Packers games this season. They rank 24th in passing completion percentage against and 17th in passing yards allowed. That fits Goff’s typical plan: make high-percentage throws and let your weapons tally up those yards after the catch.
I wanted to go with completions, but it’s a really high line at 22.5, a line he’s only been over in 3 of 12 games this year. When he’s thrown at least 22 completions, he’s been over 250 passing yards every time. Goff had an 81% completion percentage against Green Bay in the game he went under this.
At home, Goff is a machine when it comes to passing yards. In 2023 home games which includes the playoffs, he was over this line in seven of them averaging 280.4 passing yards. Last year in Detroit against Green Bay, Goff threw for over 320 passing yards.
In 2024 home games, he’s only over it in three of six games. In the first game of the season, he went under against the Rams, only threw for 85 yards in the game they won by a million against the Titans, and then went under on Thanksgiving against the Bears, his last game, which I think it giving us some value on his passing yards for this game.
The Bears have a better secondary than Green Bay, and it was another game the Lions went up big early and ran the clock out. That Bears secondary is also healthier than Green Bay’s, as Jaire Alexander will not play in this one. It helps that linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, the second-best cover linebacker on the Packers per PFF, will also be out.
So, in general, Goff has been over 250 passing yards in 13 of his last 19 home games (68.4%) and now faces a defense allowing a high completion percentage against a QB with the second-highest completion percentage in the league. Tua has the highest in the league, and he threw for 338 yards against the Packers in the cold last week.
A fair line for Jared Goff should be closer to 260 yards in this one, so at 250.5 at -115, I laid 1.15 units to win one unit on Jared Goff over passing yards.
