Two Player Props for Week 7 Monday Night Football, as the Los Angeles Chargers travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.
We are coming off a profitable Sunday, as the Lions covered +2.5, and winning outright was huge for all of our Lions futures, win total, division, best record. That was big.
We also hit on Tyler Huntley under 31.5 rushing yards. That one was tough, as Huntley exited the game with an injury and didn’t return. We don’t wish injuries on anyone, hope Huntley ends up being ok.
We did lose on the 49ers ML. Deebo Samuel ended up being sick and not playing, and Aiyuk went out early with an injury. That’s when injuries don’t help us, and Purdy definitely didn’t, throwing three INT’s all within the Chiefs 40 yard line. I’ll take a 2-1 day, but let’s go 2-0 on Monday Night.
Justin Herbert Under 10.5 Rushing Yards (+120) Risk 1 Unit
Let’s look at Justin Herbert. Herbert has played in every game this season, but an ankle injury has hobbled him all season. Against the Steelers, he took a nasty sack and came up limping in Week 3. He didn’t look his most athletic against the Chiefs, and then he had a bye week to rest up. He came back last week and played well, but there has been one common theme throughout, he’s not scrambling, or running at all.
Over the last three weeks he has two rushing yards on eight carries. He had a run of five yards last week, but a few kneel downs got him down to two. He hasn’t really ran at all this year, running for 18 yards on six carries, aided by a 13 yard run against the Panthers. He only had six yards rushing in week one.
If he’s still dealing with the ankle, which it looks like he might be, his rushing yards lines should be in the single digits. While he’s averaged 13 yards rushing per game over his career, he’s clearly not doing that this year.
This dates back to last year as well. The last two games of the season he had -5 rushing yards. Even last year having some breakout games on the ground, he averaged 3.9 rushing yards per attempt. So if he’s able to average 4 yards per attempt, and go over his 3.5 carries line, and no kneel downs, he’ll have 16 yards. That doesn’t feel like something in the cards for him right now.
The Cardinals have one of the worst run defenses in the league, but that’s against running backs. Against QB’s on the ground, they are league average, ranking 17th in rushing yards allowed to QB’s. It makes sense, we look for teams to go over when they have high pressure rates, which often force the QB’s to scramble if receivers are covered. Now only do the Cardinals have the 30th ranked secondary, they have the fourth lowest pressure rate. Receivers should be open, and they should be able to run the ball with their running backs.
This is the largest edge my model has shown for Monday Night Football, the same model that has given us three straight winners. The model on rithmm has the Herbert projected for 7.8 rushing yards, giving up a 76.5% chance of winning.
Instead of the normal 12.5 line, I’m taking under 10.5 rushing yards at +120. This is either going to look really smart or stupiud with such a low line, so i want all the value I can get, considering he’s averaging 5.2 rushing yards per game with a median of two.
Michael Wilson Over 30.5 Rec Yards (-115) Risk 1 Unit
My second player prop centers around Michael Wilson, the Cardinals’ wide receiver. I’m sure Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride will be popular, but Wilson’s consistency at home, combined with the Chargers’ focus on those two, is showing value for Kyler Murray’s third option.
He averages 11.3 yards per reception and his receptions line is -175 towards the over 2.5.
If we look at every single game Michael Wilson has ever played, the only time he didn’t have at least 34 yards if he caught three passes was against the Seahawks, catching three passes for 26 yards. He’s been over 30.5 four of his six games this year, and of course, every time he caught three passes he’s been over 30.5. He had 31 yards in week 2 against the Rams on just two catches.
Michael Wilson has exceeded 30.5 yards in 6 of his last 7 games at home (45.7 receiving yards/game average). He’s been fantastic whenever he’s at State Farm Field. He went over this line in all three home games this season, and in seven home games last year, he was over this line in five of them. One of those was with Joshua Dobbs, and the other one he was targeted three times but didn’t come down with any of them against the 49ers.
The Chargers play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Among wide recievers on the Cardinals, Michael Wilson leads the team in yards, receptions, and routes run. He has 220 yards versus zone, next closest is Marvin Harrison with 187.
This is an excellent spot for Wilson, but this is a tough matchup as the Chargers rank 8th in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. My model on rithmm is showing value on this play, even though 31.5 was loaded in instead of the readily available 30.5. Regardless, the projection for Wilson is 36.5, so I would take this to 32.5.
So give me Michael Wilson over 30.5 receiving yards for one unit.