Playoffs: 6-1 (+3.44 Units)
Kareem Hunt Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (+115) - Risk 0.75 Units
We’ll start with the early game on Saturday between the Chiefs and the Texans, the Chiefs are 8.5 point favorites and the total is 41.5. For those wong teaser bettors, this is your teaser leg of the week, the only issue is that while we have other legs that can pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7, the totals are very high, which tends to add more variance to said teaser. I’m not opposed to teasing them with Ohio State in the National Championship, but my pick in this game is looking at a player prop.
Isaiah Pacheco Over 41.5 rushing yards is the most bet-over prop in the divisional round on BetMGM. Makes sense, Chiefs are big favorites, which lends itself to a run-heavy game script for the KC, especially in the playoffs, as they are the kings of getting a lead, and bleeding out the clock.
The Texans defense is phenomenal and a huge reason they are here in the first place, but one of the few cracks in it is the run defense. It’s still good don’t get me wrong, but they do rank 14th in success rate against the run and second against the pass. We just saw Herbert throw more INTs than he had all season against this team, and while it’s still Mahomes, the Chiefs have to be wary of the number of turnovers the Texans create.
I agree with everyone’s assumption, I just think they picked the wrong Chiefs running back. We are used to Isaiah Pacheco running angrily through defenses in the playoffs, but this year has been a different story him. The man broke his leg in Week 2 and didn’t return until the end of November against the Raiders. He burst onto the scene with a 34 yard run in that raiders game, and ended with seven carries for 44 yards. Since that game, he has 42 carries for 131 yards in four games, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, with his longest run being 9 yards.
In that same span as they are trying to work Pacheco back, Hunt has 38 carries for 136 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per carry with two touchdown runs, as he has 70% of the attempts inside the red zone, with Pacheco only having 7 all season.
I’m not here to tell you to bet on Kareem Hunt over rushing yards, even though I think it probably hits due to the amount of usage.
Since Pacheco returned, Kareem Hunt is averaging 9 attempts per game. Against Houston just a few weeks ago, he led the team in attempts and rushing yards, going for 11 attempts with 55 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5 yards a carry. Pacheco went for nine carries and 26 yards, 2.9 yards per carry.
Kareem Hunt is dependable. He hasn’t lost a fumble all season long, and he is tied for the best pass-blocking grade among all running backs with James Cook. It makes sense to me that the Chiefs would rely on him over a running back with more talent, but he hasn’t shown it since he fractured his fibula.
I think people will be upset that they picked the wrong Chiefs running back to bet on when Kareem Hunt Vultures carries and ends up in the double digits when it comes to attempts. The Texans run defense is stout, and Hunt doesn’t have a ton of upside when it comes to gaining yards, so I’d rather go with the attempts line, and it’s much better value considering it’s +115.
Eagles -6 (-105) Risk 1.05 Units
As a Rams fan, I was elated to beat the Vikings. They came out hot and kept their foot on the has as Sam Darnold continued to see ghosts. We bet the Rams in the first matchup, and I was thinking about doing it again due to the matchup, but I didn’t love the value on it, so we went with TJ Hockenson, and he hit both his receptions line and his receiving line due to our ineffieicnecies covering tight ends.
We aren’t going back to the player prop market, because the best matchup in this game, and the line showing the most value is fading my beloved Rams. First off, the spot is terrible, as they got the short end of the stick when it comes to rest, but they also have to travel across the country to face a team with one of the best home-field edges in football.
The Eagles came into LA earlier this season and dismantled the Rams. They outgained the Rams by almost 200 yards, and after a Saquon Barkley 70 yard touchdown, the score was 20-7, and the game was over because the Eagles hunkered down and ran the ball with Saquon, and the Rams had no answer, as he tallied 255 yards with two touchdowns. That was without Devonta Smith, so we knew we had to stop AJ Brown, and still couldn’t, as he went for six catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. I’m not putting a ton of stock into a game played earlier in the regular season, but it illustrates the matchup concerns that I believe will continue to play out in this one.
Stafford thrives against blitz-happy zone defenses like the Vikings, not heavier-man coverage defenses that can pressure the QB while only rushing four. Cooper Kupp’s production is very concerning, which makes it easier for them to cover Puka Nacua.
In a vacuum, the matchup on paper heavily leans towards the Eagles. Their defense is a nightmare matchup for our offense, and Saquon should continue to run through our defense. We also have to factor in that the Rams are not only going into a hostile environment, they have to play in the cold, which Stafford struggled in NY against the Jets, only putting up 19 points on a far inferior defense.
Over the last 20 years, dome teams playing outdoors in the playoffs are just 19-30-1 ATS (38%). When the temperature is below 40 degrees, 33% ATS, and when wind speeds are above 8 MPH, they are 29% ATS. Both apply to this game.
The Eagles should be able to grab a lead here, and if they do, historically, it’s lights out. Over their last 15 games as a home favorite, if they grab a 7 point lead during the game, they are 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS. This line really should be -7.
The Eagles rank sixth in EPA on offense and third on defense, while the Rams rank 15th on offense and 23rd on defense. The Rams had an excellent showing against the Vikings, but I fear a let down is in order, and there is just no area I can find where the Rams will be competitive in this game. Jalen Hurts got the rust out of his system, and the Eagles didn’t even look great and still won by 12, yet public perception is high on LA, and for whatever reason, low on Philly.
It sucks, but you don’t care about my fandom, you want winners, and I think Eagles -6 is one of the best bets on the board this weekend, so I layed it with Philly to win one unit.
Ravens ML (+106) Risk 1.5 Units
Lamar Jackson ATTD (+190) Risk 1 Unit
For Bills Ravens, my handicap is simple. I bet the Ravens Super Bowl odds at +700 before the playoffs began because I think they are the number one team in the playoffs, even though we already have a big position on the Chiefs. My dream scenario is them meeting in the AFC Championship game, and while we were on the Bills last week against Denver, my opinion remains unchanged. The Ravens are better than the Bills and should go into Buffalo and win on Sunday Night.
The #1 offense by EPA per play (Ravens) takes on the #2 EPA per play offense (Bills). The edge in this matchup is whichever defense can step up and stop Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. In this case, the Ravens have a significant edge. Since week 11, when they started moving Kyle Hamilton around, the Ravens rank number one in EPA per play against on defense. The Bills rank 21st since week 11. They rank first in EPA per play against dropbacks, the Bills rank 29th in EPA per play against dropbacks. The Bills have the narrow lead on the Ravens beat when it comes to rush EPA, but by rushing success rate, the Ravens rank second, and the Bills rank 15th.
Josh Allen doesn’t have a running back like Derick Henry, who can singlehandedly win them games on the ground. Matt Milano’s return helps, but the Bills are still undersized to be taking on this stout Ravens offense line with Henry running down their throats. Josh Allen also doesn’t have the elite defense that Lamar does. If this was a battle of just Lamar vs Allen, and both teams seemed equal, I’d be signing a different tune, but it’s not, Lamar has the better team at his disposal.
This was highlighted earlier on in the season when the Ravens beat the brakes off the Bills, winning 35-10 and also nearly outgaining them by 200 yards. I’m not putting a lot on that game, but it does illustrate the difference when these two teams match up. The Bills only had 12 first downs that entire game, while the Ravens had 22 and had almost no trouble moving the ball both through the air and on the ground. Zay Flowers will be out in this game, but in that game against Buffalo, he only had one catch for 10 yards. Mark Andrews’ didn’t have a catch either.
A fun stat from Evan Abrams of Action Network, the Ravens are 13-0 SU when Zay Flowers has five targets or less, which includes two wins in the playoffs.
A big point of emphasis from Bills backers is the weather in Buffalo, and how the home field advantage when we have freezing temperatures is immense. It definitely is against most teams, but not an AFC North team like the Ravens who also play a lot of cold weather games, and when it comes to toughness, just beat the breaks off the Steelers in the cold. This team is built for matchups like this, as it’ll be difficult for bills defenders to plant and tackle both Lamar and Henry on slick conditions.
Due to the weather, this game should determine who runs the ball more effectively. The Ravens outrushed the Bills 271-81, with the Ravens averaging 5.2 yards before contact per rushing attempt, an absurd number that is four yards higher than the Bills average this year. I don’t think it’s even close to the rushing attack or defense, so if Josh Allen can rise above Superman levels, we tip our cap. I bet the Ravens when the lines opened on the ML at +105, but that’s not there anymore. I would lower the risk to a standard play to win a unit on the ML up to -120.
Lamar Jackson hits our projection that is a must play. Only other time this year was Quentin Johnston at +200 and he scored. Let’s sweep!
