Titans +3.5 (-105) vs Colts - Risk 1.05 Units
Nobody wants anything to do with the Titans. They are 2-12 ATS and have found unique ways to lose by multiple possessions. If they fail to cover this game, they’ll tie history.
Four teams have gone 2-12 ATS through their first four games. The 2016 Browns who ended up covering their next game. The 1987 Bengals who also covered their next game. The one team who fell to 2-13 ATS was the 2007 Ravens. Say whatever you want about the Titans, but the NFL market is efficient. Outliers like these rarely happen, and in a divisional game against an opponent who was just eliminated from the playoffs, now is the time to jump on the dumpster fire that is the 2024 Tennessee Titans.
I don’t think the market has come to grips with how bad Anthony Richardson is. Anthony Richardson has completed just 50% of his passes this season, which is over 11% lower than his expected completion percentage and is more than 10% lower than Cooper Rush’s completion percentage, which is the second-worst in the league. Only 2 qualified QB’s have ever finished the season below a 50% completion percentage, Tim Tebow and Akili Smith, who played four seasons with the Bengals from 1999-2003, that’s a great name if you’re with your boys shouting out old football names.
In 10 games, Richardson has seven touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in interceptions with 16, but Richardson has the highest interception rate in the league. Among 34 qualified QB’s this season, Anthony Richardson is 34th in EPA+CPOE. He is the worst QB in football this season, worse than Desaun Watson and Cooper Rush.
Richardson likes to hunt the big play, evidenced by his 12.5 average intended air yards per pass attempt, which is the highest in the league and more than 3 yards higher than Trevor Lawrence’s 9.3 average intended air yards, which ranks second. Despite hunting deep shots, Richardson has not executed on those chances, and has completed just 25% of his throws 20+ yards downfield. He also leads the league in bad throw percentage. His favorite deep target, Alec Pierce, is out this week with a concussion.
I wasn’t going to back the Titans if Will Levis played. I refuse, as he’s 30th in EPA+CPOE. I could go on and on about how bad Levis is as he ranks in the bottom 5 of just about every QB stat there is and he looks even worse when you watch him play. To give you one, Levis ranks third to last in passing success rate, ahead of only Anthony Richardson and Deshaun Watson.
But it’s not Levis, it’s Mason Rudolph, who has played in five games this year, throwing 6 TD and 5 INT with a QBR of 53.5 and an EPA + CPOE that ranks 22nd out of 42 QB’s with at least 150 plays. That puts him in the company of QBs like Drake Maye, Aaron Rodgers, and Bo Nix, which is a MASSIVE step up from Will Levis. Rudolph is coming off of an excellent performance last Sunday against the Bengals. He completed 80% of his passes and threw for two touchdowns and an interception after replacing Levis, who threw three picks in the first half.
The Colts’ defense is rounding into form, putting up some solid performances lately, but over the entire season, they rank 11th on defense by EPA/Play. The Titans rank 19th overall, but the strength is the run game, as they rank 7th in yards per carry. If they can make Jonathan Taylor’s life somewhat tricky, it’ll be on Richardson to make throws, and I don’t think he’s good enough to win by more than a field goal.
Home divisional favorites are just 10-15 ATS this season and a 45% hit rate historically. The Colts aren’t technically eliminated from playoff contention yet, but if they win this game, they have an 11% chance of making it. I think that loss took the wind out of their sails, and a team like the Titans could surprise and win this game outright. I’m taking the Titans +3.5 at (-105) to win one unit
Giants vs Falcons Over 43 (-110) - Risk 1.1 Units
The sign of a great over is when, on the surface, it’s tough to press. The Giants offense is atrocious, and the Falcons are starting a rookie QB. The Giants have put up 20 points just once in the last five weeks, and the Falcons are coming off a 15-9 win over the Raiders.
I was initially drawn to this game for the allure of Michael Penix. I was enamored with him as a prospect at Washington, and I felt like I was alone on an island when the Falcons picked him. It didn’t make sense only because they just gave Kirk a ton of money, but I think the Falcons will be thanking themselves that they did it.
Kirk can’t move anymore. When I watch Falcons games this season, it feels that he needs five seconds in a clean pocket to move the ball effectively. In all the numbers I look at for QB’s, he’s anywhere between the 18-24 range. However, the Falcons offense as a whole is still 15th in EPA because of the weapons. Mooney and London have been great, and Pitts is still a solid tight end. They have a great running back room with an average offensive line. With a good QB, this offense can be really dangerous.
Do they have one in Michael Penix? We are taking a leap here. I’ve always thought he’s deathly accurate and makes excellent decisions. With multiple weapons at his disposal, the Falcons have a path to 30 points, but they should be in the high 20s because the Giants defense is terrible and injured. Brian Burnes is questionable and his backup is out. Bobby Okereke is out as well, Deonte Banks is questionable. Dexter Lawrence is still out, and the Giants this season rank 28th in EPA, 24th against the run and 29th against the pass. Since the midway point of the season, they rank 31st in EPA, doesn’t get much worse.
I can’t think of a better spot to go with the rookie. Playing at home could bring more nerves, but letting him get comfortable against a terrible defense with little to no crowd noise because Giants fans want their ownership to be sent to the moon. Interestingly, they decided to go with him now though, with the division still in sight. They feel good about him, and I feel good about him.
So why not lay the points with Atlanta? I don’t trust their defense either. They rank 22nd in EPA this season and 18th since the midway point. The Giants offense is the strong point of their team; that’s how bad the defense is. They aren’t good, but they are in the same bucket by EPA with the Texans and Seahawks since the season’s midway point.
Drew Locke will start, the only Giants QB I’ll even consider trusting. They put up 20 against the Cowboys, and then he was shut down to 11 points against the Saints. He wants to sling it, which I like. It’ll either land with a receiver, go incomplete to stop the clock, or get intercepted, and we can get lucky with a good field position.
With a total at 43, we don’t need the Giants to light up the scoreboard, but can they get to 17 points? I think it’s attainable against this Falcons defense. The Falcons are worse against the pass than the Cowboys by dropback EPA, and if Locke is somewhat competent, they should be able to put together enough drives to be in the 17-20 point range.
We also have a system on the over, which we almost never have. Finding profitable systems on over’s is tough, but this one hits at a 56% rate. It’s called “No Wind, Low Total, Non Division Overs”. It says to take the over when the total is between 30-44, there is less than 5 MPH wind, and it’s not a divisional game. That system is 360-279-12, (56% Hit Rate).
I think this total should at least be 44, as I think 27-17 is a very likely score in this game. 24-20 is you think the Giants have more of a shot. Give me the over 43 at -110 to win one unit.
Jakobi Meyers Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-113) Risk 1.13 Units
This is a copy-and-paste play from when we took Jakobi Meyers over receiving yards against the Chiefs on that Black Friday game. It hit on the first play of the second quarter, and he finished with six receptions for 97 yards on 11 targets.
The reason it’s a copy-and paste play is due to the QB situation and the type of defense Jacksonville runs compared to the Chiefs.
Let’s talk Aiden O’Connell, because this man loves targeting Jakobi Meyers. We saw it in full display against the Chiefs, but the issue is that O’Connell hasn’t started many full games and ended them. However, Meyers leads the team in targets when he is in, even over Brock Bowers.
The matchup against the Jaguars also lends itself to Meyers having a productive day with a QB that loves to target him. The Chiefs play man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, and they are around league average in most man coverage metrics. They do have Trent McDuffie, one of the league’s best corners, but Meyers had no issues getting open in that matchup.
Now he gets the Jacksonville Jaguars, who play man coverage at the fourth highest rate in the NFL, but rank in the bottom 3 in almost every man coverage metric. They have the worst secondary in the NFL and are coming off a game in which they allowed Davante Adams to put up nearly 200 receiving yards. Meyers leads Raiders wideouts in target rate against man at 25.4%, 5% higher than against zone.
Meyers has been averaging 80 receiving yards over the last six games, and he has a quarterback who targets him a ton. I’m late to the party with this one, as this number has risen from the opener of 60 yards, but I think it’ll keep rising, and realistically the line should be in the 70s. They are playing in Las Vegas which is a dome environment, so we don’t have to worry about late season weather throwing anything off. I think Meyers continues to dominate in a matchup made for him, and against the lowly Jags, don’t be shocked to see triple digit receiving yards when the game is over. Give me Jakobi Meyers Over 65.5 Recieving Yards to win one unit.
Tee Higgins Under 5.5 Receptions (-120) Risk 1.2 Units
For our last play, we go the other direction on a receiver. Tee Higgins is one of the most talented wide receivers in football, but in this matchup against the Browns, he’s rarely had success, and with the Browns in a free fall and the Bengals being enormous favorites, we likely won’t see the same passing volume from Joe Burrow if they build a big lead.
The Browns are the best in the league at one thing. Receptions to wide receivers. The have a solid secondary, led by Denzel Ward and Grant Delpitt. Juan Thornill is a solid safety over the top, and Martin Emerson Jr, but he is questionable, but he was able to practice both on Thursday and Friday so he should play.
Tee Higgins has 21 catches for 315 yards in seven games against the Browns, that’s an average of three receptions for 45 yards. He’s only had six receptions once against the Bengals in thos seven games, and he had exactly six in a game where the Browns won 41-16, so it was an obvious pass-heavy gamescript for the Bengals as they were down by so many points.
He also only had five receptions once against the Browns back in 2020, and it was in a highly competitive, super high-scoring game that ended 37-34 in the Browns’ favor.
He’s also still dealing with a knee injury that’s hurt his production this season, causing him to miss practice on Thursday, and was limited in Friday’s practice. It makes sense that they’d give Higgins extra rest as he’s a veteran late in the year, but it’s clear he’s not 100%.
2023 he was under this line in 10 of his 12 games. In 2024, he’s under this line in five of his nine games but under in four of his last five games. He also rarely steps up in matchups like these. Tee Higgins has failed to exceed 5.5 receptions in 6 of his last 7 games vs. top 10 defenses for receptions allowed (4.0 receptions/game average).
There are too many signs pointing us to the under 5.5 receptions for Tee Higgins not to take, and at a reasonable price of -120, I laid 1.2 units on Tee Higgins Under 5.5 receptions to win one unit.
