PeterAppel

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What to expect

Plays per day 2 - 4
Written analysis Extensive
Bankroll management 1 unit = 1.00% of bankroll
Specialties Spread, Totals, Player Props

Recent plays

(more than 7 days old)

MLB Monday Card & Writeups

PeterAppel Published 1 week ago

Ugh. The Brewers had a 3-0 lead after the first inning and never scored another run. They lost 4-3, and we lost on the Brewers ML.

I have two picks today, but the lines have moved a lot since I bet them. I obviously have no control over the line movement, and these two plays have seen a lot of it. Be careful today with these.

2024 Record: 46-56 (-10.50 U)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller vs. Colin Rea

The Brewers could not come through for us yesterday, but you know the story—we are always a day late. That’s not the real reason I’m playing it; the Brewers own Mitch Keller.

Mitch Keller does not like pitching on the road and does not like going up against Milwaukee. Through 82 PA against the Brewers’ current roster, they are rocking a .414 xwOBA while hitting .333 with a .568 xSLG. Those are the elite quality-of-contact numbers, and it’s a large enough sample to know this is a continuous issue for Keller.

Keller (4.65 xERA) already faced the Brewers this year, allowing four earned runs in five innings. That was a fine start for his standards against Milwaukee. Last season, he made two starts against the Brewers, allowing 12 runs in ten innings.

Keller has a 5.09 ERA and 4.22 FIP on the road this season compared to a 3.81 ERA and 3.98 FIP in home starts. It’s too small of a sample if we look at this year, but last year was far worse. His ERA at home was 2.90, and his ERA on the road is 5.35. Over his career, his ERA is a run worse on the road.

The Pirates bullpen is also decimated after back to back crazy games against the Cubs.

As you can see from the chart, no Pirates reliever is in a good rest spot. Fleming (4.09 xERA) and Holderman (2.18 xERA) are solid relievers, and we should see them. However, they aren’t in a good spot today. I assume they leave Keller out there for a while, which I don’t see going well.

Colin Rea lines up on the other side. Admittedly, I’m not a massive fan of his, but he does throw with his right hand. The Pirates haven’t been good against righties all year, ranking dead last in wRC+. They also rank dead last in the past two weeks against right-handed pitching. It’s a terrible offense against righties.

Colin Rea has a 5.77 xERA due to a far below average strikeout rate, and his two main pitches have a batting average over .300 against. I don’t plan on backing him over this season, but he does have a very easy matchup today. I’ve seen the Pirates struggle against worse.

It was a mixed bag of results for Rea last year against the Pirates. He allowed six runs in one start, but then dominated for 6.2 innings while only allowing two runs.

The Brewers have the way better offense, home field advantage without travel, and the better and more rested bullpen. Keller is the better pitcher than Rea, but with his history against Milwaukee, I’ll take the Brewers. This line has moved so I would stick with 1.3 Units up to -145. Lower to a one-unit risk at -150 or higher.

The Pick: Brewers ML (-130) Risk 1.3 Units

Player Props

George Kirby Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-128) Risk 1 Unit

This is the line that’s moved a substantial amount. I’ll explain the play, then we can talk line movement.

Kirby is the king of command. His 2.8% walk rate is absurd, and it helps him work through a lineup efficiently. He also tends to go longer when he’s at home. George Kirby has exceeded 17.5 outs in seven of his last eight games at home (18.9 outs/game average).

He faced the Royals once last year, and even though he allowed eight hits and four runs, he still went over this number. That was in Kansas City, which put him in a worse spot than this one.

The Royals are a fine offense, but they only rank 17th in wRC+ against righties this year and 12th over the past two weeks. They also have a low strikeout and walk rate; it’s an aggressive bunch. They should attack Kirby early, especially knowing he’ll be in the zone constantly.

Even Patrick Sandoval, who gave up 11 hits and four runs yesterday, still got through six innings. Tyler Anderson also went over this line, and Canning went 5.2 shutouts but was removed after 90 pitches. That’s just in the last three games. That’s why I like taking the outs; even if Kirby gets hit, he should keep the pitch count low.

The Mariners’ bullpen could also use a breather. Every reliever has thrown at least once over the last two games except Trent Thorton. They aren’t in a terrible rest spot, but they should give Kirby some leeway here. Kirby also gave up four runs in his last start but is now -165 to go under 2.5 earned runs. If he stays under three earned runs, we should easily get 18 outs.

I put a unit on this at -130. I think it hits so I would put a unit on it up to -170. Anything after that, the value is gone.

Line movement

PeterAppel Published 1 week ago

Hey everyone,

Hopefully everyone got brewers in at a good price, but I’m sorry about Kirby. Obviously I have no control of line movement, and it moved a ton just a few minutes after I sent it out.

I still think Kirby outs hits, but the value is gone. If you want to stick to the unit bet, you’ll win less, but you won’t lose more than I would if it does lose. Thats what I would do

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About me

I enjoy analyzing the game from a betting perspective as much as the thrill of betting on it.

I bet on what I know, and I don’t overextend myself. Those specialties are MLB and NFL.

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My performance

2021 MLB: +15.67 Units
2021 NFL: +13.4 Units
2022 MLB: +44.05 Units
2022 NFL: +26.96 Units
2023 MLB: -8.46 U
2023 NFL: +35.25 U
2021-2023 Total: +126.87 U

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