PeterAppel

The Marlins shamed me last night. We were 2-0 on Marlins fades this season but they finally got us. Ryan Weathers pitched great, and while it was close early, the Giants bullpen was the unit to blow up. That’s baseball for you.

No matter. Still 5-1 since I started trusting my gut. I’m back today with a pick to start another streak.

2024 Record: 22-26 (-5.94 U)

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jordan Wicks vs. Brandon Pfaadt

The Diamondbacks have been favorites in every game for a reason. They have the better offense, they have home-field advantage, and they have the better starting pitcher. The Diamondbacks bullpen is in a slightly better rest spot, so I think they own every advantage in this game.

I know we’ve lost before on Brandon Pfaadt. We took the Diamondbacks ML against the Braves at a hefty plus price, and Pfaadt and the bullpen were the issue. We took him against the Cardinals, and he was the issue. The third time is the charm, right? I believe so.

Without Seiya Suzuki, this Cubs lineup isn’t quite as scary. Even with Michael Busch going on a tear, this Cubs lineup is still slightly below average against right-handed bats. They are between 13-18 among teams in almost every statistic against righties.

This offense has demolished left-handed pitching this season, ranking first in wRC+. The Cubs’ offense looked great against Henry and average against Kelly. Kelly is the better pitcher than Pfaadt, but we get the lesser split for Chicago.

Similarly to the Cubs, the Diamondback’s offense has been league-average against righties but great against lefties. They rank 17th against righties but 7th against lefties. It gets even better when Arizona gets them at home, putting up a 150 wRC+ this season in 150 PA. They were above average in this spot last year as well, but now they have more right-handed power bats.

Jordan Wicks is not off to a great start, similar to Pfaadt. He hasn’t made it through five innings yet, allowing two or more earned runs in every start. He faced tough competition in the Mariners, Dodgers, and Rangers, but the Diamondbacks have hit lefties better than all three teams to start the year. Based on the numbers so far, this is Wicks’ most challenging matchup so far.

Wicks has faced the Diamondbacks once and allowed three runs in four innings. Pfaadt has faced the Cubs once and threw five shutout innings.

The Diamondbacks have three relievers in a good rest spot; Ryan Thompson, Luis Frias, and Joe Mantiply. We could possible see Scott McGough as well. All have thrown less than 25 pitches in the last three games.

The Cubs have one pitcher who’s thrown less than 25 pitches in the last three days, and that’s Mark Leiter, who threw 19 pitches yesterday.

Both bullpens have been below average, but the Cubs have ultimately been worse, recording a 4.40 ERA, 4.55 FIP, and 4.52 xFIP. Arizona is at a 3.93 ERA, 3.42 FIP, and 3.83 xFIP. The Diamondbacks bullpen has outperformed them and they are in a better rest spot.

The Diamondbacks own every advantage, albeit minor advantages stacked on top of each other. You can go with Arizona through five innings, but it’s more expensive, and I’ll take my chances with the better and more rested bullpen.

The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120) Risk 1.2 Units

Diamondbacks ML (-120) vs Cubs

Risk 1.2 Units on FanDuel