MmaWeezy

1.25 UNIT BET ON ESTEBAN RIBOVICS +3.5 POINTS HANDICAP AT -125 ON BETONLINE SPORTSBOOK

I just bet 1.25U on Esteban Ribovics +3.5 points handicap spread at -125 on BetOnline Sportsbook. Zellhuber is such an interesting prospect. He’s tall and long for the division and he will be 3’ taller with a 8’ reach advantage here. He’s 3 years younger than Esteban and is the more experienced fighter overall and in the UFC and he’s the much more technical striker at range. Daniel also has excellent conditioning and durability. Esteban Ribovics has that dog in him. He’s also very durable and can push a pace for 15 minutes. Esteban has a 100% finish rate as a pro with 5 wins by SUB and 7 by KO. We saw his highlight reel KO power in the McKinney fight and saw his heart and ability to go to war in the Radzhabov fight. I think Esteban’s style is perfect to highlight what I think are the weaknesses in Zellhuber’s game. Zellhuber is technical, he wants to use his height and reach to out point his opponent at range. He doesnt deal with pressure well and this was on display in round 1 of the Prado fight. If you walk Daniel down and dont give him room to kick he does not look good. That is going to be how Esteban wins this fight, by putting Daniel on his back foot, by getting into the pocket and trading power shots with Daniel. Both these guys have very reliable chins and excellent conditioning so I dont see either guy getting knocked out. Zellhuber by SUB is a long shot prop that I think has some value this week but I think Esteban by DEC at +400 is a very tempting look and I’m also interested in Ribovics +3.5 handicap and his ML. I’m picking El Gringo to win this fight by forcing a pocket boxing war where Ribovics pressure and output and commitment to throwing power strikes get him the nod on the scorecards in this fight. El Gringo is a dog, so I made him my dog of the week this week!

1.5 UNIT BET ON THE IGNACIO BAHAMONDES MONEYLINE AT +120 ON BETONLINE SPORTSBOOK

Both of these guys are tall and long for the division, they both have power in their striking and both guys have winning UFC records. Torres is a frontloaded fighter with a ton of power and an opportunistic submission game. He’s finished all 3 of his UFC wins in the 1st Round, the market is really high on him right now and why not? He’s absolutely dick sawed all 3 of his UFC opponents thus far and showing the new wrinkles in his grappling game last time out against Duncan doesnt hurt either. Ignacio is 2.5 years younger, 5’ taller, has a 2’ reach advantage, is more experienced overall and in the UFC, he’s fought the better brand of competition as a pro, I rate him as the better minute winner and also as the more likely moment winner after the 1st round in the striking exchanges and he’s shown excellent TD defense at the UFC level. Torres has a lot to prove here. I think Ignacio toys with him at distance striking range and uses his durability and heart to weather the early storm, drag Torres into deep waters and finish him with the striking in the 2nd or 3rd Round. This is a step up for Torres and there are too many questions about his ability to win minutes and his conditioning to favor him against a striker of Bahamondes quality who has never been knocked out as a pro. I’m going with Bahamondes with a decent amount of confidence and I think this line is off.