BettorDaysAhead

Happy Wednesday to you all!

Today, we remember all those lost in the horriffic events that took place on this day, 23 years ago, and I am always humbled by the words of Sandy Dahl, wife of Flight 93 pilot Jason Dahl. Sandy said, “If we learn nothing else from the tragedy, we learn that life is short and there is not time for hate.” In the current environment which we live in, I can’t think of a better message.

We do have a full slate of baseball games to cover, and if you have been using the Model projections- you have had some really profitable days! The Model correctly identified the Baltimore, Kansas City, and the Cincinnati wins- ALL PLUS MONEY dogs! The model went 12-3 yesterday, and is 26-13 over the last 3 days.

Let’s get into some picks! I have found a couple of pitchers that I want to target today, and I did make sure the BetMGM has the markets available on these games.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates - J Bermudez o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the BOTTOM of the 1st Inn -130
Bermundez is making his first start for the Marlins today. He has only been used as a reliever for the organizatoin and has made 2 appearances for the Marlins this season in that capacity. In both relief appearances, he threw over 22 pitches per inning. Normally, a first start is not something I would want to target, however, for Bermudez I am willing to make an exception. The Pirates are above league average in first inning hits, walks, and HR’s at home over the last 30 days. Look for them to make the LHP Bermudez work deep into the pitch count for each at bat.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox - D Martin o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the TOP of the 1st Inning -105
Martin has a first inning home 12.00 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. He has allowed 4 hits in those starts, 3 for HR’s, and has a .308 OPP BA, a .555 OPP wOBA, and a 1.67 WHIP. In his last 3 starts, Martin has thrown 17, 21, and 16. Cleveland has made Sox pitchers throw o15.5 pitches in the first inning in the 2 games played in this series so far.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees - L Gil o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the TOP of the 1st Inning -110
Gil has cleared this line in 5 of his L5 starts. While his first inning stats are fairly decent- 2.08 ERA, .133 OPP BA, .240 OPP wOBA, and 1.08 WHIP, he uses a lot of pitches to get people out. In his last 5 starts he has thrown 19, 22, 32, 30, and 16 in the first inning. With the extended pre-game remembrances and dedications taking place tonight at the stadium, I expect timing will be a little off, and that means Gil will be trying to over-throw his pitches- which is good news for us!

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Cleveland -1.5 Run Line -140
Look, I have said it on “The Weekend Wagers Show”, I have posted it on JustTheStatsSports.com, I have screamed it from the rafters for the last 5 weeks- if you are not fading the White Sox on the Run Line every single game for the rest of the season, you are throwing money away! The White Sox are 6-42 since the All-Star Break (remember when that happened? Lol) they are 13-35 AGAINST THE RUN LINE in the same time frame! The Model has the Guardians winning today by 3.65 runs- I am not opposed to even playing the -2.5 line either for plus money today!

WNBA Pick:

Seattle Storm vs LA Sparks - Total o162.5
These teams have played twice this season and the over has cleared in both meetings- EASILY! The Sparks got blown out by 20 pts last night by the Connecticut Sun, and will certainly be looking for a much better performance tonight. These teams play a very up-and-down, fast paced style against each other, look for lots of scoring to be had.

Look ahead NFL Pick for Thursday Night Football:

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins - Total o48.5 -108
Get this in now before it goes up. Both offenses are going to put plenty of pionts on the board in this AFC shootout!

That will do it for me today- I will see you back here tomorrow with more data and picks! Until then, let’s cash these tickets and be kind to one another!

–Mark

Happy Wednesday to you all!

Today, we remember all those lost in the horriffic events that took place on this day, 23 years ago, and I am always humbled by the words of Sandy Dahl, wife of Flight 93 pilot Jason Dahl. Sandy said, “If we learn nothing else from the tragedy, we learn that life is short and there is not time for hate.” In the current environment which we live in, I can’t think of a better message.

We do have a full slate of baseball games to cover, and if you have been using the Model projections- you have had some really profitable days! The Model correctly identified the Baltimore, Kansas City, and the Cincinnati wins- ALL PLUS MONEY dogs! The model went 12-3 yesterday, and is 26-13 over the last 3 days.

Let’s get into some picks! I have found a couple of pitchers that I want to target today, and I did make sure the BetMGM has the markets available on these games.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates - J Bermudez o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the BOTTOM of the 1st Inn -130
Bermundez is making his first start for the Marlins today. He has only been used as a reliever for the organizatoin and has made 2 appearances for the Marlins this season in that capacity. In both relief appearances, he threw over 22 pitches per inning. Normally, a first start is not something I would want to target, however, for Bermudez I am willing to make an exception. The Pirates are above league average in first inning hits, walks, and HR’s at home over the last 30 days. Look for them to make the LHP Bermudez work deep into the pitch count for each at bat.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox - D Martin o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the TOP of the 1st Inning -105
Martin has a first inning home 12.00 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. He has allowed 4 hits in those starts, 3 for HR’s, and has a .308 OPP BA, a .555 OPP wOBA, and a 1.67 WHIP. In his last 3 starts, Martin has thrown 17, 21, and 16. Cleveland has made Sox pitchers throw o15.5 pitches in the first inning in the 2 games played in this series so far.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees - L Gil o15.5 Pitches Thrown in the TOP of the 1st Inning -110
Gil has cleared this line in 5 of his L5 starts. While his first inning stats are fairly decent- 2.08 ERA, .133 OPP BA, .240 OPP wOBA, and 1.08 WHIP, he uses a lot of pitches to get people out. In his last 5 starts he has thrown 19, 22, 32, 30, and 16 in the first inning. With the extended pre-game remembrances and dedications taking place tonight at the stadium, I expect timing will be a little off, and that means Gil will be trying to over-throw his pitches- which is good news for us!

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Cleveland -1.5 Run Line -140
Look, I have said it on “The Weekend Wagers Show”, I have posted it on JustTheStatsSports.com, I have screamed it from the rafters for the last 5 weeks- if you are not fading the White Sox on the Run Line every single game for the rest of the season, you are throwing money away! The White Sox are 6-42 since the All-Star Break (remember when that happened? Lol) they are 13-35 AGAINST THE RUN LINE in the same time frame! The Model has the Guardians winning today by 3.65 runs- I am not opposed to even playing the -2.5 line either for plus money today!

WNBA Pick:

Seattle Storm vs LA Sparks - Total o162.5
These teams have played twice this season and the over has cleared in both meetings- EASILY! The Sparks got blown out by 20 pts last night by the Connecticut Sun, and will certainly be looking for a much better performance tonight. These teams play a very up-and-down, fast paced style against each other, look for lots of scoring to be had.

Look ahead NFL Pick for Thursday Night Football:

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins - Total o48.5 -108
Get this in now before it goes up. Both offenses are going to put plenty of pionts on the board in this AFC shootout!

That will do it for me today- I will see you back here tomorrow with more data and picks! Until then, let’s cash these tickets and be kind to one another!

–Mark