4for4PickEm

Malik Willis UNDER 177.5 Passing Yards

Willis has started three games, never topping 100 passing yards: pass comp 25/49 attempts (51%), passing yards 234 (78.0 yards a game), 0 TD 3 Int through the air with 20 carries 95 yards 1 4.7 yards per carry on the ground.

We’re talking about guys like Justin Fields consistently lined in the 150’s last year, Bo Nix is currently in the 160’s… you’re telling me the worst quarterback in the NFL by EPA per play (and my eyeballs) should be at a higher number?

One of the more overlooked aspects of this is the fact that he was just traded to the Packers, so even if he has made some improvement it’s very unlikely he is familiar enough with the playbook to actually show that off. The Colts were thrashed on the ground for 215 total yards last week, mostly by Mixon. There is no way this team doesn’t live and die on Josh Jacobs and the ground game.

Pete Werner UNDER 6.5 Tackles+Assists

“Pete Werner’s production has slipped a bit over the past two seasons as his role expanded. He ranked 89th out of 111 linebackers in PFF’s tackles over expected last season (-14.4). This is a curiously high line, considering Werner has topped it just twice in his past 13 games. Werner had two tackles on 69.5% of the snaps in last week’s game against the Panthers. While all of the Saints defenders sat out the last couple of series, it’s notable that Werner, per PFF, played in just 57% of the first 40 plays before they benched their starters.

Dallas is also a below-average matchup for opposing linebackers, and games in Dallas were the third-worst spot in the league for assists last season, finishing below 39% in back-to-back seasons (the league average was 43.68% last season). We have Werner projected for 5.06 T&A this week.”

Will Levis UNDER 19.5 Completions

Will Levis was really bad in Week 1, going 19/32 for 127 yards and basically threw the game away on a brutal INT that was returned for a TD. In week 2, he draws a difficult matchup against the NYJ defense in a game that should also play extremely slow. Going into the season, I expected the Titans to be more pass happy under first year head coach Brian Callahan, but that was not the case in week 1. The Titans were 20th in situation-neutral pass rate and according to Pat Thorman from ETR, “turned in the league’s slowest Neutral Pace of Week 1 while foregoing even a single no-huddle snap.” In a matchup against the NYJ secondary, I expect them to lean on the run for as long as they can this week. The Jets were just gashed on the ground in week 1 by Jordan Mason (28-147-1).

KJ Osborn UNDER 24.5 Receiving Yards

Osborn ran just 14 routes last week on 29 dropbacks from Jacoby Brissett. He drew 6 targets, catching just 3 of them for 21 yards. He likely won’t have anywhere near that level of target per route run rate in the future. He now draws the Seahawks who locked up Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, pressuring Nix on 43% of his dropbacks. Despite playing against an underwhelming Bengals defensive line, Brissett was pressured at the leagues highest rate (44%). The Seahawks could dial up an insane pressure rate here, leading to even less passing success for the Patriots here.

Cedric Tillman UNDER 12.5 Receiving Yards

Tillman ran only 21 routes on Sunday on the Brown’s 60(!!!) pass plays. I do not expect the Browns to drop Watson back nearly as much, and even with Njoku going down, TIllman’s role did not change much at all later in the game. Tillman only saw 1 target good for a 4% TPRR. He’s the WR4 on this Browns team behind Elijah Moore, and in a game where we cannot project nearly the same amount of play volume, Tillman would have to get there on one catch.