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(more than 7 days old)Wed 9/4 MLB Update
![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/dc-prod-image-uploads/prod/NqLMJsEI_400x400.jpg)
3:07pm ET: Phillies at Blue Jays
- First pitch: 73 degrees, roof open
- Approx end: 71 degrees, roof open
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 0%
- Phillies (Offense rating: 113 (vs RHP: 112), RPs: 83 (top RPs: 85)) SP: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (26 GS, 152 IP, 3.49 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, 3.71 park neutral projection, Rating: 86)
- Blue Jays (Offense rating: 110 (vs LHP: 112), RPs: 114 (top RPs: 116)) SP: RHP Bowden Francis (9 GS, 79 IP, 3.66 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 3.74 park neutral projection, Rating: 86)
- SideLine: Phillies have a 48% win probability (+108) … Threshold: +123 or better
- Phillies -1.5 wins 35% of the time (+184) … Threshold: +224
- Phillies +1.5 wins 66% of the time (-192) … Threshold: -174
- Phillies win (pushes removed) the first five innings 48% of the time (+110) … Threshold: +124
- Phillies -0.5 wins 40% of the time (+149) … Threshold: +175
- Phillies +0.5 wins 56% of the time (-128) … Threshold: -115
- SideLine: Blue Jays have a 52% win probability (-108) … Threshold: +103 or better
- Blue Jays -1.5 wins 34% of the time (+192) … Threshold: +235
- Blue Jays +1.5 wins 65% of the time (-184) … Threshold: -167
- Blue Jays win (pushes removed) the first five innings 52% of the time (-110) … Threshold: +102
- Blue Jays -0.5 wins 44% of the time (+128) … Threshold: +147
- Blue Jays +0.5 wins 60% of the time (-149) … Threshold: -135
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.18 (F5: 4.02)
6:35pm ET: White Sox at Orioles
- First pitch: 77 degrees, wind “in” from RF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 72 degrees, wind “in” from RF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -5%
- White Sox (Offense rating: 61 (vs RHP: 62), RPs: 131 (top RPs: 129)) SP: RHP Jonathan Cannon (16 GS, 96 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.8 FIP, 4.81 xFIP, 4.92 park neutral projection, Rating: 117)
- Orioles (Offense rating: 109 (vs RHP: 112), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 100)) SP: RHP Albert Suarez (19 GS, 109 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.52 xFIP, 3.87 park neutral projection, Rating: 92)
- SideLine: White Sox have a 23% win probability (+332) … Threshold: +500 or better
- White Sox -1.5 wins 11% of the time (+829) … Threshold: -3250
- White Sox +1.5 wins 42% of the time (+137) … Threshold: +158
- White Sox win (pushes removed) the first five innings 31% of the time (+223) … Threshold: +284
- White Sox -0.5 wins 26% of the time (+285) … Threshold: +395
- White Sox +0.5 wins 42% of the time (+138) … Threshold: +160
- SideLine: Orioles have a 77% win probability (-332) … Threshold: -298 or better
- Orioles -1.5 wins 58% of the time (-137) … Threshold: -123
- Orioles +1.5 wins 89% of the time (-829) … Threshold: -704
- Orioles win (pushes removed) the first five innings 69% of the time (-223) … Threshold: -202
- Orioles -0.5 wins 58% of the time (-138) … Threshold: -124
- Orioles +0.5 wins 74% of the time (-285) … Threshold: -257
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.74 (F5: 4.09)
6:40pm ET: Nationals at Marlins
- First pitch: Dome
- Approx end: Dome
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 0%
- Nationals (Offense rating: 75 (vs RHP: 79), RPs: 108 (top RPs: 110)) SP: LHP MacKenzie Gore (27 GS, 138 IP, 4.45 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.11 park neutral projection, Rating: 99)
- Marlins (Offense rating: 83 (vs LHP: 87), RPs: 120 (top RPs: 119)) SP: RHP Valente Bellozo (8 GS, 42 IP, 4.32 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 5.53 xFIP, 5.5 park neutral projection, Rating: 131)
- SideLine: Nationals have a 55% win probability (-125) … Threshold: -112 or better
- Nationals -1.5 wins 43% of the time (+135) … Threshold: +156
- Nationals +1.5 wins 73% of the time (-271) … Threshold: -245
- Nationals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 57% of the time (-135) … Threshold: -121
- Nationals -0.5 wins 48% of the time (+108) … Threshold: +122
- Nationals +0.5 wins 64% of the time (-179) … Threshold: -162
- SideLine: Marlins have a 45% win probability (+125) … Threshold: +143 or better
- Marlins -1.5 wins 27% of the time (+271) … Threshold: +367
- Marlins +1.5 wins 57% of the time (-135) … Threshold: -121
- Marlins win (pushes removed) the first five innings 43% of the time (+135) … Threshold: +156
- Marlins -0.5 wins 36% of the time (+179) … Threshold: +216
- Marlins +0.5 wins 52% of the time (-108) … Threshold: +104
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.28 (F5: 4.51)
6:40pm ET: Astros at Reds
- First pitch: 83 degrees, wind in from LC at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 76 degrees, wind in from LC at 3 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 8%
- Astros (Offense rating: 111 (vs RHP: 111), RPs: 90 (top RPs: 90)) SP: RHP Spencer Arrighetti (24 GS, 124 IP, 4.63 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.04 park neutral projection, Rating: 96)
- Reds (Offense rating: 96 (vs RHP: 91), RPs: 114 (top RPs: 117)) SP: RHP Nick Martinez (11 GS, 110 IP, 3.78 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.74 park neutral projection, Rating: 113)
- SideLine: Astros have a 61% win probability (-156) … Threshold: -141 or better
- Astros -1.5 wins 49% of the time (+103) … Threshold: +116
- Astros +1.5 wins 78% of the time (-352) … Threshold: -316
- Astros win (pushes removed) the first five innings 59% of the time (-143) … Threshold: -129
- Astros -0.5 wins 49% of the time (+102) … Threshold: +116
- Astros +0.5 wins 65% of the time (-189) … Threshold: -171
- SideLine: Reds have a 39% win probability (+156) … Threshold: +184 or better
- Reds -1.5 wins 22% of the time (+352) … Threshold: +553
- Reds +1.5 wins 51% of the time (-103) … Threshold: +109
- Reds win (pushes removed) the first five innings 41% of the time (+143) … Threshold: +166
- Reds -0.5 wins 35% of the time (+189) … Threshold: +230
- Reds +0.5 wins 51% of the time (-102) … Threshold: +110
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.17 (F5: 4.8)
6:50pm ET: Twins at Rays
- First pitch: Dome
- Approx end: Dome
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -6%
- Twins (Offense rating: 105 (vs LHP: 101), RPs: 85 (top RPs: 78)) SP: RHP Varland (OP: Henriquez) (7 GS, 37 IP, 6.13 ERA, 5.86 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, 4.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 105)
- Rays (Offense rating: 90 (vs RHP: 91), RPs: 87 (top RPs: 84)) SP: LHP Alexander (OP: Sulser) (7 GS, 85 IP, 5.48 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 5.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 129)
- SideLine: Twins have a 58% win probability (-136) … Threshold: -122 or better
- Twins -1.5 wins 44% of the time (+125) … Threshold: +143
- Twins +1.5 wins 75% of the time (-304) … Threshold: -274
- Twins win (pushes removed) the first five innings 57% of the time (-133) … Threshold: -119
- Twins -0.5 wins 48% of the time (+109) … Threshold: +123
- Twins +0.5 wins 64% of the time (-177) … Threshold: -160
- SideLine: Rays have a 42% win probability (+136) … Threshold: +157 or better
- Rays -1.5 wins 25% of the time (+304) … Threshold: +435
- Rays +1.5 wins 56% of the time (-125) … Threshold: -112
- Rays win (pushes removed) the first five innings 43% of the time (+133) … Threshold: +154
- Rays -0.5 wins 36% of the time (+177) … Threshold: +213
- Rays +0.5 wins 52% of the time (-109) … Threshold: +103
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.1 (F5: 4.51)
7:10pm ET: Red Sox at Mets
- First pitch: 73 degrees, wind “out” to LF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 69 degrees, wind “out” to LF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -8%
- Red Sox (Offense rating: 113 (vs RHP: 115), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 96)) SP: RHP Tanner Houck (27 GS, 165 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 3.82 park neutral projection, Rating: 88)
- Mets (Offense rating: 115 (vs RHP: 114), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 99)) SP: RHP Tylor Megill (10 GS, 52 IP, 4.82 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.65 park neutral projection, Rating: 112)
- SideLine: Red Sox have a 53% win probability (-113) … Threshold: -101 or better
- Red Sox -1.5 wins 40% of the time (+149) … Threshold: +174
- Red Sox +1.5 wins 71% of the time (-243) … Threshold: -220
- Red Sox win (pushes removed) the first five innings 55% of the time (-121) … Threshold: -108
- Red Sox -0.5 wins 46% of the time (+118) … Threshold: +134
- Red Sox +0.5 wins 62% of the time (-163) … Threshold: -147
- SideLine: Mets have a 47% win probability (+113) … Threshold: +129 or better
- Mets -1.5 wins 29% of the time (+243) … Threshold: +317
- Mets +1.5 wins 60% of the time (-149) … Threshold: -134
- Mets win (pushes removed) the first five innings 45% of the time (+121) … Threshold: +138
- Mets -0.5 wins 38% of the time (+163) … Threshold: +193
- Mets +0.5 wins 54% of the time (-118) … Threshold: -105
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.14 (F5: 4.3)
7:20pm ET: Rockies at Braves
- First pitch: 78 degrees, wind “in” from LF at 10 mph, 5% chance of rain
- Approx end: 73 degrees, wind “in” from LF at 8 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 0%
- Rockies (Offense rating: 76 (vs RHP: 78), RPs: 126 (top RPs: 126)) SP: RHP Bradley Blalock (4 GS, 22 IP, 4.99 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 5.52 xFIP, 5.1 park neutral projection, Rating: 122)
- Braves (Offense rating: 103 (vs RHP: 100), RPs: 68 (top RPs: 69)) SP: RHP Charlie Morton (25 GS, 137 IP, 4.26 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 102)
- SideLine: Rockies have a 30% win probability (+238) … Threshold: +307 or better
- Rockies -1.5 wins 17% of the time (+480) … Threshold: +1068
- Rockies +1.5 wins 48% of the time (+110) … Threshold: +124
- Rockies win (pushes removed) the first five innings 38% of the time (+166) … Threshold: +198
- Rockies -0.5 wins 32% of the time (+217) … Threshold: +273
- Rockies +0.5 wins 48% of the time (+110) … Threshold: +125
- SideLine: Braves have a 70% win probability (-238) … Threshold: -215 or better
- Braves -1.5 wins 52% of the time (-110) … Threshold: +102
- Braves +1.5 wins 83% of the time (-480) … Threshold: -424
- Braves win (pushes removed) the first five innings 62% of the time (-166) … Threshold: -150
- Braves -0.5 wins 52% of the time (-110) … Threshold: +102
- Braves +0.5 wins 68% of the time (-217) … Threshold: -196
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.25 (F5: 4.55)
7:40pm ET: Pirates at Cubs
- First pitch: 74 degrees, wind in from RF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 72 degrees, wind “in” from RF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -2%
- Pirates (Offense rating: 92 (vs LHP: 93), RPs: 106 (top RPs: 107)) SP: RHP Domingo German (1 GS, 18 IP, 6.12 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 6.09 xFIP, 4.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 103)
- Cubs (Offense rating: 108 (vs RHP: 107), RPs: 113 (top RPs: 116)) SP: LHP Shota Imanaga (25 GS, 146 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 3.85 park neutral projection, Rating: 89)
- SideLine: Pirates have a 37% win probability (+173) … Threshold: +208 or better
- Pirates -1.5 wins 24% of the time (+316) … Threshold: +463
- Pirates +1.5 wins 55% of the time (-121) … Threshold: -108
- Pirates win (pushes removed) the first five innings 40% of the time (+150) … Threshold: +176
- Pirates -0.5 wins 34% of the time (+198) … Threshold: +243
- Pirates +0.5 wins 50% of the time (+102) … Threshold: +115
- SideLine: Cubs have a 63% win probability (-173) … Threshold: -157 or better
- Cubs -1.5 wins 45% of the time (+121) … Threshold: +138
- Cubs +1.5 wins 76% of the time (-316) … Threshold: -285
- Cubs win (pushes removed) the first five innings 60% of the time (-150) … Threshold: -135
- Cubs -0.5 wins 50% of the time (-102) … Threshold: +111
- Cubs +0.5 wins 66% of the time (-198) … Threshold: -179
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.16 (F5: 4.11)
7:40pm ET: Cardinals at Brewers
- First pitch: 72 degrees, roof closed
- Approx end: 72 degrees, roof closed
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -2%
- Cardinals (Offense rating: 93 (vs RHP: 93), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 100)) SP: RHP Sonny Gray (25 GS, 148 IP, 3.96 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 2.85 xFIP, 3.48 park neutral projection, Rating: 81)
- Brewers (Offense rating: 100 (vs RHP: 98), RPs: 95 (top RPs: 94)) SP: RHP Colin Rea (23 GS, 146 IP, 3.7 ERA, 4.6 FIP, 4.34 xFIP, 4.17 park neutral projection, Rating: 98)
- SideLine: Cardinals have a 50% win probability (+100) … Threshold: +113 or better
- Cardinals -1.5 wins 36% of the time (+175) … Threshold: +211
- Cardinals +1.5 wins 68% of the time (-215) … Threshold: -195
- Cardinals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 53% of the time (-111) … Threshold: +101
- Cardinals -0.5 wins 44% of the time (+126) … Threshold: +145
- Cardinals +0.5 wins 60% of the time (-151) … Threshold: -136
- SideLine: Brewers have a 50% win probability (-100) … Threshold: +112 or better
- Brewers -1.5 wins 32% of the time (+215) … Threshold: +270
- Brewers +1.5 wins 64% of the time (-175) … Threshold: -159
- Brewers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 47% of the time (+111) … Threshold: +126
- Brewers -0.5 wins 40% of the time (+151) … Threshold: +177
- Brewers +0.5 wins 56% of the time (-126) … Threshold: -113
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.51 (F5: 3.72)
7:40pm ET: Guardians at Royals
- First pitch: 81 degrees, wind across to LF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 76 degrees, wind across to LF at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 12%
- Guardians (Offense rating: 104 (vs RHP: 107), RPs: 81 (top RPs: 77)) SP: RHP Ben Lively (24 GS, 131 IP, 3.92 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.73 park neutral projection, Rating: 112)
- Royals (Offense rating: 93 (vs RHP: 91), RPs: 111 (top RPs: 112)) SP: RHP Seth Lugo (28 GS, 179 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, 3.79 park neutral projection, Rating: 86)
- SideLine: Guardians have a 46% win probability (+116) … Threshold: +132 or better
- Guardians -1.5 wins 34% of the time (+190) … Threshold: +232
- Guardians +1.5 wins 63% of the time (-172) … Threshold: -155
- Guardians win (pushes removed) the first five innings 44% of the time (+126) … Threshold: +145
- Guardians -0.5 wins 37% of the time (+169) … Threshold: +202
- Guardians +0.5 wins 53% of the time (-114) … Threshold: -102
- SideLine: Royals have a 54% win probability (-116) … Threshold: -103 or better
- Royals -1.5 wins 37% of the time (+172) … Threshold: +206
- Royals +1.5 wins 66% of the time (-190) … Threshold: -172
- Royals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 56% of the time (-126) … Threshold: -113
- Royals -0.5 wins 47% of the time (+114) … Threshold: +129
- Royals +0.5 wins 63% of the time (-169) … Threshold: -153
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.13 (F5: 4.81)
8:05pm ET: Yankees at Rangers
- First pitch: 76 degrees, roof open
- Approx end: 75 degrees, roof open
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 5%
- Yankees (Offense rating: 130 (vs RHP: 130), RPs: 103 (top RPs: 107)) SP: RHP Marcus Stroman (26 GS, 139 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, 4.36 park neutral projection, Rating: 103)
- Rangers (Offense rating: 100 (vs RHP: 100), RPs: 94 (top RPs: 93)) SP: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (24 GS, 140 IP, 3.6 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.57 park neutral projection, Rating: 83)
- SideLine: Yankees have a 47% win probability (+111) … Threshold: +126 or better
- Yankees -1.5 wins 35% of the time (+182) … Threshold: +220
- Yankees +1.5 wins 64% of the time (-181) … Threshold: -164
- Yankees win (pushes removed) the first five innings 46% of the time (+115) … Threshold: +131
- Yankees -0.5 wins 39% of the time (+156) … Threshold: +184
- Yankees +0.5 wins 55% of the time (-122) … Threshold: -110
- SideLine: Rangers have a 53% win probability (-111) … Threshold: +101 or better
- Rangers -1.5 wins 36% of the time (+181) … Threshold: +219
- Rangers +1.5 wins 65% of the time (-182) … Threshold: -165
- Rangers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 54% of the time (-115) … Threshold: -103
- Rangers -0.5 wins 45% of the time (+122) … Threshold: +140
- Rangers +0.5 wins 61% of the time (-156) … Threshold: -141
- SideLine Projected Total: 9 (F5: 4.56)
9:38pm ET: Dodgers at Angels
- First pitch: 87 degrees, wind out to RC at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 80 degrees, wind out to CF at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 8%
- Dodgers (Offense rating: 134 (vs RHP: 134), RPs: 93 (top RPs: 96)) SP: RHP Bobby Miller (10 GS, 45 IP, 7.25 ERA, 6.43 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.36 park neutral projection, Rating: 107)
- Angels (Offense rating: 84 (vs RHP: 82), RPs: 122 (top RPs: 114)) SP: RHP Griffin Canning (26 GS, 144 IP, 5.18 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 4.77 xFIP, 4.93 park neutral projection, Rating: 117)
- SideLine: Dodgers have a 68% win probability (-208) … Threshold: -188 or better
- Dodgers -1.5 wins 57% of the time (-132) … Threshold: -119
- Dodgers +1.5 wins 84% of the time (-529) … Threshold: -466
- Dodgers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 61% of the time (-159) … Threshold: -144
- Dodgers -0.5 wins 52% of the time (-107) … Threshold: +105
- Dodgers +0.5 wins 68% of the time (-209) … Threshold: -189
- SideLine: Angels have a 32% win probability (+208) … Threshold: +259 or better
- Angels -1.5 wins 16% of the time (+529) … Threshold: +1448
- Angels +1.5 wins 43% of the time (+132) … Threshold: +153
- Angels win (pushes removed) the first five innings 39% of the time (+159) … Threshold: +188
- Angels -0.5 wins 32% of the time (+209) … Threshold: +260
- Angels +0.5 wins 48% of the time (+107) … Threshold: +121
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.94 (F5: 5.44)
9:40pm ET: Mariners at Athletics
- First pitch: 77 degrees, wind out to RC at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 70 degrees, wind out to RC at 2 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -2%
- Mariners (Offense rating: 94 (vs LHP: 100), RPs: 103 (top RPs: 101)) SP: RHP George Kirby (28 GS, 161 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.4 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.77 park neutral projection, Rating: 89)
- Athletics (Offense rating: 95 (vs RHP: 95), RPs: 107 (top RPs: 106)) SP: LHP JP Sears (27 GS, 152 IP, 4.21 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.74 xFIP, 4.6 park neutral projection, Rating: 107)
- SideLine: Mariners have a 56% win probability (-128) … Threshold: -115 or better
- Mariners -1.5 wins 43% of the time (+133) … Threshold: +154
- Mariners +1.5 wins 74% of the time (-284) … Threshold: -256
- Mariners win (pushes removed) the first five innings 56% of the time (-130) … Threshold: -117
- Mariners -0.5 wins 47% of the time (+111) … Threshold: +126
- Mariners +0.5 wins 63% of the time (-174) … Threshold: -157
- SideLine: Athletics have a 44% win probability (+128) … Threshold: +148 or better
- Athletics -1.5 wins 26% of the time (+284) … Threshold: +394
- Athletics +1.5 wins 57% of the time (-133) … Threshold: -120
- Athletics win (pushes removed) the first five innings 44% of the time (+130) … Threshold: +150
- Athletics -0.5 wins 37% of the time (+174) … Threshold: +208
- Athletics +0.5 wins 53% of the time (-111) … Threshold: +101
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.94 (F5: 4.16)
9:40pm ET: Tigers at Padres
- First pitch: 77 degrees, wind in from LF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 73 degrees, wind in from LF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -9%
- Tigers (Offense rating: 100 (vs RHP: 102), RPs: 102 (top RPs: 105)) SP: RHP Keider Montero (12 GS, 70 IP, 5.17 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 4.48 park neutral projection, Rating: 107)
- Padres (Offense rating: 118 (vs RHP: 117), RPs: 80 (top RPs: 85)) SP: RHP Yu Darvish (11 GS, 56 IP, 3.2 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 4.17 park neutral projection, Rating: 100)
- SideLine: Tigers have a 38% win probability (+166) … Threshold: +197 or better
- Tigers -1.5 wins 25% of the time (+301) … Threshold: +429
- Tigers +1.5 wins 56% of the time (-127) … Threshold: -114
- Tigers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 43% of the time (+134) … Threshold: +155
- Tigers -0.5 wins 36% of the time (+179) … Threshold: +215
- Tigers +0.5 wins 52% of the time (-108) … Threshold: +104
- SideLine: Padres have a 62% win probability (-166) … Threshold: -150 or better
- Padres -1.5 wins 44% of the time (+127) … Threshold: +146
- Padres +1.5 wins 75% of the time (-301) … Threshold: -272
- Padres win (pushes removed) the first five innings 57% of the time (-134) … Threshold: -120
- Padres -0.5 wins 48% of the time (+108) … Threshold: +122
- Padres +0.5 wins 64% of the time (-179) … Threshold: -161
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.98 (F5: 4.24)
9:45pm ET: Diamondbacks at Giants
- First pitch: 67 degrees, wind out to LC at 3 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 64 degrees, wind out to LC at 2 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -7%
- Diamondbacks (Offense rating: 109 (vs RHP: 112), RPs: 84 (top RPs: 85)) SP: RHP Zac Gallen (23 GS, 121 IP, 3.87 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.79 xFIP, 3.92 park neutral projection, Rating: 93)
- Giants (Offense rating: 86 (vs RHP: 85), RPs: 82 (top RPs: 82)) SP: RHP Hayden Birdsong (11 GS, 49 IP, 5.14 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 4.7 park neutral projection, Rating: 116)
- SideLine: Diamondbacks have a 59% win probability (-143) … Threshold: -129 or better
- Diamondbacks -1.5 wins 45% of the time (+123) … Threshold: +141
- Diamondbacks +1.5 wins 77% of the time (-333) … Threshold: -299
- Diamondbacks win (pushes removed) the first five innings 58% of the time (-138) … Threshold: -124
- Diamondbacks -0.5 wins 49% of the time (+105) … Threshold: +119
- Diamondbacks +0.5 wins 65% of the time (-183) … Threshold: -166
- SideLine: Giants have a 41% win probability (+143) … Threshold: +167 or better
- Giants -1.5 wins 23% of the time (+333) … Threshold: +502
- Giants +1.5 wins 55% of the time (-123) … Threshold: -110
- Giants win (pushes removed) the first five innings 42% of the time (+138) … Threshold: +160
- Giants -0.5 wins 35% of the time (+183) … Threshold: +222
- Giants +0.5 wins 51% of the time (-105) … Threshold: +107
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.47 (F5: 3.98)
Wed 9/4 MLB Update
![](https://s3.amazonaws.com/dc-prod-image-uploads/prod/NqLMJsEI_400x400.jpg)
3:07pm ET: Phillies at Blue Jays
- First pitch: 73 degrees, roof open
- Approx end: 71 degrees, roof open
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 0%
- Phillies (Offense rating: 113 (vs RHP: 112), RPs: 83 (top RPs: 85)) SP: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (26 GS, 152 IP, 3.49 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, 3.71 park neutral projection, Rating: 86)
- Blue Jays (Offense rating: 110 (vs LHP: 112), RPs: 114 (top RPs: 116)) SP: RHP Bowden Francis (9 GS, 79 IP, 3.66 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, 3.74 park neutral projection, Rating: 86)
- SideLine: Phillies have a 48% win probability (+108) … Threshold: +123 or better
- Phillies -1.5 wins 35% of the time (+184) … Threshold: +224
- Phillies +1.5 wins 66% of the time (-192) … Threshold: -174
- Phillies win (pushes removed) the first five innings 48% of the time (+110) … Threshold: +124
- Phillies -0.5 wins 40% of the time (+149) … Threshold: +175
- Phillies +0.5 wins 56% of the time (-128) … Threshold: -115
- SideLine: Blue Jays have a 52% win probability (-108) … Threshold: +103 or better
- Blue Jays -1.5 wins 34% of the time (+192) … Threshold: +235
- Blue Jays +1.5 wins 65% of the time (-184) … Threshold: -167
- Blue Jays win (pushes removed) the first five innings 52% of the time (-110) … Threshold: +102
- Blue Jays -0.5 wins 44% of the time (+128) … Threshold: +147
- Blue Jays +0.5 wins 60% of the time (-149) … Threshold: -135
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.18 (F5: 4.02)
6:35pm ET: White Sox at Orioles
- First pitch: 77 degrees, wind “in” from RF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 72 degrees, wind “in” from RF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -5%
- White Sox (Offense rating: 61 (vs RHP: 62), RPs: 131 (top RPs: 129)) SP: RHP Jonathan Cannon (16 GS, 96 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.8 FIP, 4.81 xFIP, 4.92 park neutral projection, Rating: 117)
- Orioles (Offense rating: 109 (vs RHP: 112), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 100)) SP: RHP Albert Suarez (19 GS, 109 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.52 xFIP, 3.87 park neutral projection, Rating: 92)
- SideLine: White Sox have a 23% win probability (+332) … Threshold: +500 or better
- White Sox -1.5 wins 11% of the time (+829) … Threshold: -3250
- White Sox +1.5 wins 42% of the time (+137) … Threshold: +158
- White Sox win (pushes removed) the first five innings 31% of the time (+223) … Threshold: +284
- White Sox -0.5 wins 26% of the time (+285) … Threshold: +395
- White Sox +0.5 wins 42% of the time (+138) … Threshold: +160
- SideLine: Orioles have a 77% win probability (-332) … Threshold: -298 or better
- Orioles -1.5 wins 58% of the time (-137) … Threshold: -123
- Orioles +1.5 wins 89% of the time (-829) … Threshold: -704
- Orioles win (pushes removed) the first five innings 69% of the time (-223) … Threshold: -202
- Orioles -0.5 wins 58% of the time (-138) … Threshold: -124
- Orioles +0.5 wins 74% of the time (-285) … Threshold: -257
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.74 (F5: 4.09)
6:40pm ET: Nationals at Marlins
- First pitch: Dome
- Approx end: Dome
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 0%
- Nationals (Offense rating: 75 (vs RHP: 79), RPs: 108 (top RPs: 110)) SP: LHP MacKenzie Gore (27 GS, 138 IP, 4.45 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.11 park neutral projection, Rating: 99)
- Marlins (Offense rating: 83 (vs LHP: 87), RPs: 120 (top RPs: 119)) SP: RHP Valente Bellozo (8 GS, 42 IP, 4.32 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 5.53 xFIP, 5.5 park neutral projection, Rating: 131)
- SideLine: Nationals have a 55% win probability (-125) … Threshold: -112 or better
- Nationals -1.5 wins 43% of the time (+135) … Threshold: +156
- Nationals +1.5 wins 73% of the time (-271) … Threshold: -245
- Nationals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 57% of the time (-135) … Threshold: -121
- Nationals -0.5 wins 48% of the time (+108) … Threshold: +122
- Nationals +0.5 wins 64% of the time (-179) … Threshold: -162
- SideLine: Marlins have a 45% win probability (+125) … Threshold: +143 or better
- Marlins -1.5 wins 27% of the time (+271) … Threshold: +367
- Marlins +1.5 wins 57% of the time (-135) … Threshold: -121
- Marlins win (pushes removed) the first five innings 43% of the time (+135) … Threshold: +156
- Marlins -0.5 wins 36% of the time (+179) … Threshold: +216
- Marlins +0.5 wins 52% of the time (-108) … Threshold: +104
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.28 (F5: 4.51)
6:40pm ET: Astros at Reds
- First pitch: 83 degrees, wind in from LC at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 76 degrees, wind in from LC at 3 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 8%
- Astros (Offense rating: 111 (vs RHP: 111), RPs: 90 (top RPs: 90)) SP: RHP Spencer Arrighetti (24 GS, 124 IP, 4.63 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.04 park neutral projection, Rating: 96)
- Reds (Offense rating: 96 (vs RHP: 91), RPs: 114 (top RPs: 117)) SP: RHP Nick Martinez (11 GS, 110 IP, 3.78 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.74 park neutral projection, Rating: 113)
- SideLine: Astros have a 61% win probability (-156) … Threshold: -141 or better
- Astros -1.5 wins 49% of the time (+103) … Threshold: +116
- Astros +1.5 wins 78% of the time (-352) … Threshold: -316
- Astros win (pushes removed) the first five innings 59% of the time (-143) … Threshold: -129
- Astros -0.5 wins 49% of the time (+102) … Threshold: +116
- Astros +0.5 wins 65% of the time (-189) … Threshold: -171
- SideLine: Reds have a 39% win probability (+156) … Threshold: +184 or better
- Reds -1.5 wins 22% of the time (+352) … Threshold: +553
- Reds +1.5 wins 51% of the time (-103) … Threshold: +109
- Reds win (pushes removed) the first five innings 41% of the time (+143) … Threshold: +166
- Reds -0.5 wins 35% of the time (+189) … Threshold: +230
- Reds +0.5 wins 51% of the time (-102) … Threshold: +110
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.17 (F5: 4.8)
6:50pm ET: Twins at Rays
- First pitch: Dome
- Approx end: Dome
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -6%
- Twins (Offense rating: 105 (vs LHP: 101), RPs: 85 (top RPs: 78)) SP: RHP Varland (OP: Henriquez) (7 GS, 37 IP, 6.13 ERA, 5.86 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, 4.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 105)
- Rays (Offense rating: 90 (vs RHP: 91), RPs: 87 (top RPs: 84)) SP: LHP Alexander (OP: Sulser) (7 GS, 85 IP, 5.48 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 5.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 129)
- SideLine: Twins have a 58% win probability (-136) … Threshold: -122 or better
- Twins -1.5 wins 44% of the time (+125) … Threshold: +143
- Twins +1.5 wins 75% of the time (-304) … Threshold: -274
- Twins win (pushes removed) the first five innings 57% of the time (-133) … Threshold: -119
- Twins -0.5 wins 48% of the time (+109) … Threshold: +123
- Twins +0.5 wins 64% of the time (-177) … Threshold: -160
- SideLine: Rays have a 42% win probability (+136) … Threshold: +157 or better
- Rays -1.5 wins 25% of the time (+304) … Threshold: +435
- Rays +1.5 wins 56% of the time (-125) … Threshold: -112
- Rays win (pushes removed) the first five innings 43% of the time (+133) … Threshold: +154
- Rays -0.5 wins 36% of the time (+177) … Threshold: +213
- Rays +0.5 wins 52% of the time (-109) … Threshold: +103
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.1 (F5: 4.51)
7:10pm ET: Red Sox at Mets
- First pitch: 73 degrees, wind “out” to LF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 69 degrees, wind “out” to LF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -8%
- Red Sox (Offense rating: 113 (vs RHP: 115), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 96)) SP: RHP Tanner Houck (27 GS, 165 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 3.82 park neutral projection, Rating: 88)
- Mets (Offense rating: 115 (vs RHP: 114), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 99)) SP: RHP Tylor Megill (10 GS, 52 IP, 4.82 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.65 park neutral projection, Rating: 112)
- SideLine: Red Sox have a 53% win probability (-113) … Threshold: -101 or better
- Red Sox -1.5 wins 40% of the time (+149) … Threshold: +174
- Red Sox +1.5 wins 71% of the time (-243) … Threshold: -220
- Red Sox win (pushes removed) the first five innings 55% of the time (-121) … Threshold: -108
- Red Sox -0.5 wins 46% of the time (+118) … Threshold: +134
- Red Sox +0.5 wins 62% of the time (-163) … Threshold: -147
- SideLine: Mets have a 47% win probability (+113) … Threshold: +129 or better
- Mets -1.5 wins 29% of the time (+243) … Threshold: +317
- Mets +1.5 wins 60% of the time (-149) … Threshold: -134
- Mets win (pushes removed) the first five innings 45% of the time (+121) … Threshold: +138
- Mets -0.5 wins 38% of the time (+163) … Threshold: +193
- Mets +0.5 wins 54% of the time (-118) … Threshold: -105
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.14 (F5: 4.3)
7:20pm ET: Rockies at Braves
- First pitch: 78 degrees, wind “in” from LF at 10 mph, 5% chance of rain
- Approx end: 73 degrees, wind “in” from LF at 8 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 0%
- Rockies (Offense rating: 76 (vs RHP: 78), RPs: 126 (top RPs: 126)) SP: RHP Bradley Blalock (4 GS, 22 IP, 4.99 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 5.52 xFIP, 5.1 park neutral projection, Rating: 122)
- Braves (Offense rating: 103 (vs RHP: 100), RPs: 68 (top RPs: 69)) SP: RHP Charlie Morton (25 GS, 137 IP, 4.26 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 102)
- SideLine: Rockies have a 30% win probability (+238) … Threshold: +307 or better
- Rockies -1.5 wins 17% of the time (+480) … Threshold: +1068
- Rockies +1.5 wins 48% of the time (+110) … Threshold: +124
- Rockies win (pushes removed) the first five innings 38% of the time (+166) … Threshold: +198
- Rockies -0.5 wins 32% of the time (+217) … Threshold: +273
- Rockies +0.5 wins 48% of the time (+110) … Threshold: +125
- SideLine: Braves have a 70% win probability (-238) … Threshold: -215 or better
- Braves -1.5 wins 52% of the time (-110) … Threshold: +102
- Braves +1.5 wins 83% of the time (-480) … Threshold: -424
- Braves win (pushes removed) the first five innings 62% of the time (-166) … Threshold: -150
- Braves -0.5 wins 52% of the time (-110) … Threshold: +102
- Braves +0.5 wins 68% of the time (-217) … Threshold: -196
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.25 (F5: 4.55)
7:40pm ET: Pirates at Cubs
- First pitch: 74 degrees, wind in from RF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 72 degrees, wind “in” from RF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -2%
- Pirates (Offense rating: 92 (vs LHP: 93), RPs: 106 (top RPs: 107)) SP: RHP Domingo German (1 GS, 18 IP, 6.12 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 6.09 xFIP, 4.32 park neutral projection, Rating: 103)
- Cubs (Offense rating: 108 (vs RHP: 107), RPs: 113 (top RPs: 116)) SP: LHP Shota Imanaga (25 GS, 146 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 3.85 park neutral projection, Rating: 89)
- SideLine: Pirates have a 37% win probability (+173) … Threshold: +208 or better
- Pirates -1.5 wins 24% of the time (+316) … Threshold: +463
- Pirates +1.5 wins 55% of the time (-121) … Threshold: -108
- Pirates win (pushes removed) the first five innings 40% of the time (+150) … Threshold: +176
- Pirates -0.5 wins 34% of the time (+198) … Threshold: +243
- Pirates +0.5 wins 50% of the time (+102) … Threshold: +115
- SideLine: Cubs have a 63% win probability (-173) … Threshold: -157 or better
- Cubs -1.5 wins 45% of the time (+121) … Threshold: +138
- Cubs +1.5 wins 76% of the time (-316) … Threshold: -285
- Cubs win (pushes removed) the first five innings 60% of the time (-150) … Threshold: -135
- Cubs -0.5 wins 50% of the time (-102) … Threshold: +111
- Cubs +0.5 wins 66% of the time (-198) … Threshold: -179
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.16 (F5: 4.11)
7:40pm ET: Cardinals at Brewers
- First pitch: 72 degrees, roof closed
- Approx end: 72 degrees, roof closed
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -2%
- Cardinals (Offense rating: 93 (vs RHP: 93), RPs: 100 (top RPs: 100)) SP: RHP Sonny Gray (25 GS, 148 IP, 3.96 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 2.85 xFIP, 3.48 park neutral projection, Rating: 81)
- Brewers (Offense rating: 100 (vs RHP: 98), RPs: 95 (top RPs: 94)) SP: RHP Colin Rea (23 GS, 146 IP, 3.7 ERA, 4.6 FIP, 4.34 xFIP, 4.17 park neutral projection, Rating: 98)
- SideLine: Cardinals have a 50% win probability (+100) … Threshold: +113 or better
- Cardinals -1.5 wins 36% of the time (+175) … Threshold: +211
- Cardinals +1.5 wins 68% of the time (-215) … Threshold: -195
- Cardinals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 53% of the time (-111) … Threshold: +101
- Cardinals -0.5 wins 44% of the time (+126) … Threshold: +145
- Cardinals +0.5 wins 60% of the time (-151) … Threshold: -136
- SideLine: Brewers have a 50% win probability (-100) … Threshold: +112 or better
- Brewers -1.5 wins 32% of the time (+215) … Threshold: +270
- Brewers +1.5 wins 64% of the time (-175) … Threshold: -159
- Brewers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 47% of the time (+111) … Threshold: +126
- Brewers -0.5 wins 40% of the time (+151) … Threshold: +177
- Brewers +0.5 wins 56% of the time (-126) … Threshold: -113
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.51 (F5: 3.72)
7:40pm ET: Guardians at Royals
- First pitch: 81 degrees, wind across to LF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 76 degrees, wind across to LF at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 12%
- Guardians (Offense rating: 104 (vs RHP: 107), RPs: 81 (top RPs: 77)) SP: RHP Ben Lively (24 GS, 131 IP, 3.92 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.73 park neutral projection, Rating: 112)
- Royals (Offense rating: 93 (vs RHP: 91), RPs: 111 (top RPs: 112)) SP: RHP Seth Lugo (28 GS, 179 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, 3.79 park neutral projection, Rating: 86)
- SideLine: Guardians have a 46% win probability (+116) … Threshold: +132 or better
- Guardians -1.5 wins 34% of the time (+190) … Threshold: +232
- Guardians +1.5 wins 63% of the time (-172) … Threshold: -155
- Guardians win (pushes removed) the first five innings 44% of the time (+126) … Threshold: +145
- Guardians -0.5 wins 37% of the time (+169) … Threshold: +202
- Guardians +0.5 wins 53% of the time (-114) … Threshold: -102
- SideLine: Royals have a 54% win probability (-116) … Threshold: -103 or better
- Royals -1.5 wins 37% of the time (+172) … Threshold: +206
- Royals +1.5 wins 66% of the time (-190) … Threshold: -172
- Royals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 56% of the time (-126) … Threshold: -113
- Royals -0.5 wins 47% of the time (+114) … Threshold: +129
- Royals +0.5 wins 63% of the time (-169) … Threshold: -153
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.13 (F5: 4.81)
8:05pm ET: Yankees at Rangers
- First pitch: 76 degrees, roof open
- Approx end: 75 degrees, roof open
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 5%
- Yankees (Offense rating: 130 (vs RHP: 130), RPs: 103 (top RPs: 107)) SP: RHP Marcus Stroman (26 GS, 139 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, 4.36 park neutral projection, Rating: 103)
- Rangers (Offense rating: 100 (vs RHP: 100), RPs: 94 (top RPs: 93)) SP: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (24 GS, 140 IP, 3.6 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.57 park neutral projection, Rating: 83)
- SideLine: Yankees have a 47% win probability (+111) … Threshold: +126 or better
- Yankees -1.5 wins 35% of the time (+182) … Threshold: +220
- Yankees +1.5 wins 64% of the time (-181) … Threshold: -164
- Yankees win (pushes removed) the first five innings 46% of the time (+115) … Threshold: +131
- Yankees -0.5 wins 39% of the time (+156) … Threshold: +184
- Yankees +0.5 wins 55% of the time (-122) … Threshold: -110
- SideLine: Rangers have a 53% win probability (-111) … Threshold: +101 or better
- Rangers -1.5 wins 36% of the time (+181) … Threshold: +219
- Rangers +1.5 wins 65% of the time (-182) … Threshold: -165
- Rangers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 54% of the time (-115) … Threshold: -103
- Rangers -0.5 wins 45% of the time (+122) … Threshold: +140
- Rangers +0.5 wins 61% of the time (-156) … Threshold: -141
- SideLine Projected Total: 9 (F5: 4.56)
9:38pm ET: Dodgers at Angels
- First pitch: 87 degrees, wind out to RC at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 80 degrees, wind out to CF at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by 8%
- Dodgers (Offense rating: 134 (vs RHP: 134), RPs: 93 (top RPs: 96)) SP: RHP Bobby Miller (10 GS, 45 IP, 7.25 ERA, 6.43 FIP, 4.57 xFIP, 4.36 park neutral projection, Rating: 107)
- Angels (Offense rating: 84 (vs RHP: 82), RPs: 122 (top RPs: 114)) SP: RHP Griffin Canning (26 GS, 144 IP, 5.18 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 4.77 xFIP, 4.93 park neutral projection, Rating: 117)
- SideLine: Dodgers have a 68% win probability (-208) … Threshold: -188 or better
- Dodgers -1.5 wins 57% of the time (-132) … Threshold: -119
- Dodgers +1.5 wins 84% of the time (-529) … Threshold: -466
- Dodgers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 61% of the time (-159) … Threshold: -144
- Dodgers -0.5 wins 52% of the time (-107) … Threshold: +105
- Dodgers +0.5 wins 68% of the time (-209) … Threshold: -189
- SideLine: Angels have a 32% win probability (+208) … Threshold: +259 or better
- Angels -1.5 wins 16% of the time (+529) … Threshold: +1448
- Angels +1.5 wins 43% of the time (+132) … Threshold: +153
- Angels win (pushes removed) the first five innings 39% of the time (+159) … Threshold: +188
- Angels -0.5 wins 32% of the time (+209) … Threshold: +260
- Angels +0.5 wins 48% of the time (+107) … Threshold: +121
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.94 (F5: 5.44)
9:40pm ET: Mariners at Athletics
- First pitch: 77 degrees, wind out to RC at 4 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 70 degrees, wind out to RC at 2 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -2%
- Mariners (Offense rating: 94 (vs LHP: 100), RPs: 103 (top RPs: 101)) SP: RHP George Kirby (28 GS, 161 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.4 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.77 park neutral projection, Rating: 89)
- Athletics (Offense rating: 95 (vs RHP: 95), RPs: 107 (top RPs: 106)) SP: LHP JP Sears (27 GS, 152 IP, 4.21 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.74 xFIP, 4.6 park neutral projection, Rating: 107)
- SideLine: Mariners have a 56% win probability (-128) … Threshold: -115 or better
- Mariners -1.5 wins 43% of the time (+133) … Threshold: +154
- Mariners +1.5 wins 74% of the time (-284) … Threshold: -256
- Mariners win (pushes removed) the first five innings 56% of the time (-130) … Threshold: -117
- Mariners -0.5 wins 47% of the time (+111) … Threshold: +126
- Mariners +0.5 wins 63% of the time (-174) … Threshold: -157
- SideLine: Athletics have a 44% win probability (+128) … Threshold: +148 or better
- Athletics -1.5 wins 26% of the time (+284) … Threshold: +394
- Athletics +1.5 wins 57% of the time (-133) … Threshold: -120
- Athletics win (pushes removed) the first five innings 44% of the time (+130) … Threshold: +150
- Athletics -0.5 wins 37% of the time (+174) … Threshold: +208
- Athletics +0.5 wins 53% of the time (-111) … Threshold: +101
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.94 (F5: 4.16)
9:40pm ET: Tigers at Padres
- First pitch: 77 degrees, wind in from LF at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 73 degrees, wind in from LF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -9%
- Tigers (Offense rating: 100 (vs RHP: 102), RPs: 102 (top RPs: 105)) SP: RHP Keider Montero (12 GS, 70 IP, 5.17 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 4.48 park neutral projection, Rating: 107)
- Padres (Offense rating: 118 (vs RHP: 117), RPs: 80 (top RPs: 85)) SP: RHP Yu Darvish (11 GS, 56 IP, 3.2 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, 4.17 park neutral projection, Rating: 100)
- SideLine: Tigers have a 38% win probability (+166) … Threshold: +197 or better
- Tigers -1.5 wins 25% of the time (+301) … Threshold: +429
- Tigers +1.5 wins 56% of the time (-127) … Threshold: -114
- Tigers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 43% of the time (+134) … Threshold: +155
- Tigers -0.5 wins 36% of the time (+179) … Threshold: +215
- Tigers +0.5 wins 52% of the time (-108) … Threshold: +104
- SideLine: Padres have a 62% win probability (-166) … Threshold: -150 or better
- Padres -1.5 wins 44% of the time (+127) … Threshold: +146
- Padres +1.5 wins 75% of the time (-301) … Threshold: -272
- Padres win (pushes removed) the first five innings 57% of the time (-134) … Threshold: -120
- Padres -0.5 wins 48% of the time (+108) … Threshold: +122
- Padres +0.5 wins 64% of the time (-179) … Threshold: -161
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.98 (F5: 4.24)
9:45pm ET: Diamondbacks at Giants
- First pitch: 67 degrees, wind out to LC at 3 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 64 degrees, wind out to LC at 2 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park and weather adjust the runs by -7%
- Diamondbacks (Offense rating: 109 (vs RHP: 112), RPs: 84 (top RPs: 85)) SP: RHP Zac Gallen (23 GS, 121 IP, 3.87 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.79 xFIP, 3.92 park neutral projection, Rating: 93)
- Giants (Offense rating: 86 (vs RHP: 85), RPs: 82 (top RPs: 82)) SP: RHP Hayden Birdsong (11 GS, 49 IP, 5.14 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 4.7 park neutral projection, Rating: 116)
- SideLine: Diamondbacks have a 59% win probability (-143) … Threshold: -129 or better
- Diamondbacks -1.5 wins 45% of the time (+123) … Threshold: +141
- Diamondbacks +1.5 wins 77% of the time (-333) … Threshold: -299
- Diamondbacks win (pushes removed) the first five innings 58% of the time (-138) … Threshold: -124
- Diamondbacks -0.5 wins 49% of the time (+105) … Threshold: +119
- Diamondbacks +0.5 wins 65% of the time (-183) … Threshold: -166
- SideLine: Giants have a 41% win probability (+143) … Threshold: +167 or better
- Giants -1.5 wins 23% of the time (+333) … Threshold: +502
- Giants +1.5 wins 55% of the time (-123) … Threshold: -110
- Giants win (pushes removed) the first five innings 42% of the time (+138) … Threshold: +160
- Giants -0.5 wins 35% of the time (+183) … Threshold: +222
- Giants +0.5 wins 51% of the time (-105) … Threshold: +107
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.47 (F5: 3.98)
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About me
I’m a PhD statistician who has built mathematical models to predict MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB and NHL. The models provided totals, team totals, and thresholds for ML picks to be +EV and top plays, the latter deriving from my expertise of probability. I believe our picks have an edge because most people don’t understand probability very well! For more explanations visit www.pickswiththeprofessor.com/new, and for a sneak peek of what you get by joining this DubClub, watch this welcome video.
My performance
24 MLB: As of 8/3, 3% ROI on Play of the Day [n=130], +50u (5% ROI) on A grades [n=888]
23-24 CBB: 6% ROI on Play of the Day [n=258]
2023 CFB: 5% ROI on A grade sides [n=259]
2023 NFL: 22% ROI on A grade sides [n=91]
2023 MLB: 1% ROI on the POTD [n=200]
22-23 CBB: 9% ROI on A grade ML plays [n=185] in March (debut of ML model)
2022 CFB: 1% ROI picking every spread from Week 8 on [n=375]
2022 MLB: 4% ROI on A grade sides [n=647]