ArvisPetunovs

Hey,

No games today but sending some predictions not only for Friday but also for Saturday and Sunday!

April 19

Pelicans - Kings
Pick: Brandon Ingram over 5.5 assists
Odds: 2.12
Stake: 2 units

Zion Williamson is out, so Ingram should be handling the ball a lot more. Ingram seems a little bit rusty since returning and that could lead to more assist opportunities. Without Zion, Ingram has covered the line in 6 out 9 games and that includes a game against the Kings where he had 8 assists. With the season being on the line, Ingram should be playing at least 30 minutes and he has covered the line in 64% of the games when seeing such amount of minutes. The Kings are also a friendly team to catch-and-shoot shots and that will make Ingram’s job easier.

Pelicans - Kings
Pick: Jonas Valanciunas over 21.5 PR
Odds: 1.78
Stake: 3 units

Jonas Valanciunas should see more playing time without Zion Williamson. Valanciunas has covered the line in 9 out of 12 games without Zion and in the last 6 games in a row! One of the games was against the Kings, and Valanciunas had 15 points with 12 rebounds. Jonas has been playing very well against his fellow Lithuanian Domantas Sabonis because he has covered the line in 6 out of the last 7 meetings. Valancounas could be playing for at least 25 minutes. When he does that, he has covered the line in 82% of the games (28/34) and 83% of the home games (15/18).

April 20

Cavaliers - Magic
Pick: Darius Garland over 23.5 PA
Odds: 1.82
Stake: 3 units

During the regular season, Darius Garland averaged 18 points and 6.4 assists and I don’t see why he couldn’t at least repeat these numbers. Garland scores mostly as a P&R ball handler, and the Magic has the 5th-worst defense in these types of plays. Garland has covered the line in 53% of the games (30/57) and 64% of the home games (16/25). Last season, he averaged 37.8 minutes during the playoffs. Garland’s coverage rate increases to 67% and 84% when he’s been playing at least 30 minutes this season! Garland played against Orlando three times and he covered the line all 3 times: 26+9, 36+5 and 18+10. Donovan Mitchell playing shouldn’t cause any problems for Garland as he has covered the line in 60% and 70% of the games respectively with Mitchell.

Timberwolves - Suns
Pick: Karl Anthony-Towns over 13.5 points
Odds: 1.82
Stake: 3 units

I don’t know what is this line but I’m taking it! Towns returned just last week and he had 11 and 10 points in both games but he played just 28 and 29 minutes. Towns has covered the line in 86% of the games (53/62). If we increase minutes to at least 31, the coverage rate improves to 84% overall (37/44) and 77% at home (17/22). Towns has scored 25 and 11 points against the Suns this season but the last game was on Sunday. Towns should be in much better shape as he had nearly a week to prepare and he should perform also better.

Nuggets - Lakers
Pick: Austin Reaves over 23.5 PRA
Odds: 1.82
Stake: 3 units

The Nuggets and Lakers are once again meeting in the playoffs. Last year, Reaves played very well against Denver as he averaged 21.3 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists (covered 3 out of 4 games). D’Angelo Russell was terrible last year and he hasn’t improved his defense. If Russell is again seeing fewer minutes, Reaves would only gain. This season, Reaves has covered the line in 65% of the games (52/80) and 61% of the road games (25/41). Last year, Reaves saw at least 36 minutes against Denver. When playing at least 30 minutes this season, Reaves’s coverage rate improved to 76% and 85%. He’s an important player for the Lakers so expect a big performance from him.

April 21

Clippers - Mavericks
Pick: Luka Doncic over 8.5 rebounds
Odds: 1.82
Stake: 3 units

The Mavericks have been playing very well since the all-star and also Doncic has performed awesomely in the rebounding department. During the regular season, Doncic has covered the line in 64% of the games (44/69) and 64% of the road games (23/36). It has to be mentioned, that Luka has covered the line in 23 out of the last 25 games and the last 13 road games. The Mavericks could be playing with a small lineup (Maxi Kleber as a center) and that should only improve Doncic chances to get rebounds. Luka already played a lot of minutes and that shouldn’t change. Doncic has covered the line in 9 out of the last 12 meetings against the Clippers.

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Have a nice day!

G Canning Under 5.5 Ks, +100. 0.625 units.

With only 5 games tomorrow this night be my only play for the day. It could stay around the line potentially, but I’d expect it to drop out of the even money zone.