MikeHoncho

A little history:

I used to sit and watch hours and hours of tape on fighters to gain edge on the betting markets. This required a massive time investment and limited me to fights in the UFC. My strategy was parlaying chalky favorites and playing slight underdogs. In an effort to save time I developed a betting model.

The model takes into account a combination of stats, attributes and historical results and gives me a winner on a 0-4 scale. 0 is low confidence and is not a bet. 1-4 are the units I’d apply to the model. I applied this model to just underdogs and discarded the favorites because it seemed massively uncool to play favorites. This was the birth of the underdog model. The results were there! As profitable as we were it always felt like we were leaving money on the table by not including some favorites so we dug into the data. The data showed us that including the favorites into our betting strategy was profitable! The new model includes every bet suggested on a 1-4u scale. The other benefit of the model is that it is applicable to any other fight promotion so we are no longer limited to just the UFC!

THE MODEL RESULTS(up until 10/01/23 will update end of year)

The underdog model resulted in an overall 12% ROI with an average of +180 odds. I dug into the numbers and decided to take a peek at how the model would perform if included all the favorites as well and the results were pretty shocking.

The newer model showed me how much money I was leaving on the table! In 2023 alone the underdog model netted about 65u in the year (which is impressive enough!) and the new improved model brought in 104u. That is significant. It’s a doubling of your whole bankroll in less than a year!

The model gives me and edge on fights at all odds ranges. My underdog bets perform greatly and my favorites perform even better.

Here are some stats(Flat Unity Model): as of 10/1/23

Underdog bets hit at a 41% rate with average odds of +180. This meant a bet ROI of 11.8% but a bankroll ROI of 65%

New Model bets hit at a 60% rate with average odds of +105. This meant a bet ROI of 8.6% but a bankroll ROI 104%

Favorites alone hit at a 75.6% Rate!

ODDS
A little something about the odds. I hated playing juice. It always seemed like it wasn’t a cool thing to do and that your merit as capper was on how you sniped the best lines at dog prices. It seemed like there was no skill in picking favorites and that it’d be a long term losing strategy. Sifting through the data on my picks really showed me how much money I could be making. I separated my spreadsheet by odds and was astounded that my model was picking winners at a better clip than the odds would suggest.

My two biggest returns were between -101 to -150 and anything juicier than -500 in odds

Out of 72 bets over -500 my model picked 72 correctly. That’s right 72-0 with an 18% ROI! The juice payed off. I believe that my model has an edge over the betting markets and will continue to perform. Obviously past results are not indicative of future result and there are always ebbs and flow with any gambling system. WE might have a bad day, week, and maybe month but we have never seen our model not profit on a 3 month timeline and has always profited well in a 6 month period.

BANK ROLL MANAGEMENT
The betting system is assuming that you are betting 1-3% your bankroll for every unit. This allow for breathing room when we hit a cold streak (happens to everyone). You should set a base level for what your unit size is. if you are working with a $10,000 bankroll your unit size should be $100-$300. A 1u bet would be $100 and a 3u bet would be $900. It all depends on how much risk you’re willing to incur. If you’re starting with a small bankroll and looking to build, I would suggest the more aggressive approach.
Once your bankroll grow to a base level you’re comfortable with you can adjust unit sizing.

There are different ways to approach increasing your unit sizing to grow your bankroll. The two that I have used are percentage betting and flat betting with a goal.

Percentage Betting:
You have a $10,000 bankroll and you place and win a 1u($100) bet at +200 odds.
Your bankroll is now $10,200. Your next unit bet would be $102. Always sticking to your 1% baseline.
The pros and cons are that if you go on a hot streak you’ll build a bankroll faster. It’s almost like compounding interest.
It also mitigates the losses a bit. If you go on a cold streak, your unit size will shrink and it will slow the bleeding. This is the preferred strategy for this type of betting model.

Flat Betting with goals:
You have a $10,000 bankroll. You set a gaol to $11,000. You keep betting the same unit size until you hit that goal. Once you’re up 10u you would increase your unit size to $110. You would also set a deficit limit of $9000. You would keep the $100 unit size unit size until you hit that deficit limit then lower your unit size to $90.
Some people will revisit their unit size at a quarterly, half year, or annual rate. You would see where your bankroll is at these specific intervals and adjust unit size appropriately.

Flat unit betting:
You pick unit size and stick to it for a prolonged time.
You have a $10,000. You don’t change your unit size. You’ll be at a specific units size until you’re ready to move on. Most people will do this in a year. https://www.betmma.tips/badmma.