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CFB Week 14 (Champ Week) Early Projections and Picks

ProfessorSides Published 1 week ago

The Big Ten is making me think about ways to restructure the model, or just add another variable. We’ve long talked about Penn State, Iowa and Maryland being teams that take care of business against teams worse than them but can’t beat teams better than them. That’s on display this week with the model projecting Iowa closer to Michigan than they should be. Why? Cause the model is built to on average perform well, and with A grade picks on the season up to a 6% ROI, we’re seeing that. That said, I wouldn’t take points with Iowa unless I was getting at least 35, and maybe even something in the 40s. It’s also part of why spreads are capped at B grades – some of these bigger numbers are just tougher to dissect.

That said, here are the projections and first round of picks. Texas -13 would be a B grade and probably worth a look. We’ll see if Cousin Jared wants us to play Miami OH and taking the points on show tonight. There are also several intriguing totals that we’ll discuss!

Fri 7:00pm: New Mexico State +12.9 (ML: +414, A grade: +616) at Liberty -12.9 (ML: -414, A grade: -301), Total: 53.2
Fri 8:00pm: Oregon -9.1 (ML: -255, A grade: -197) vs Washington +9.1 (ML: +255, A grade: +341), Total: 57.6
Sat 12:00pm: Oklahoma State +17.8 (ML: +647, A grade: +1167) vs Texas -17.8 (ML: -647, A grade: -429), Total: 60.4
Sat 12:00pm: Miami (OH) +5.6 (ML: +197, A grade: +255) vs Toledo -5.6 (ML: -197, A grade: -155), Total: 41.9
Sat 3:00pm: Boise State +2.5 (ML: +127, A grade: +160) at UNLV -2.5 (ML: -127, A grade: -102), Total: 65.3
Sat 4:00pm: SMU -8.9 (ML: -284, A grade: -217) at Tulane +8.9 (ML: +284, A grade: +387), Total: 45.2
Sat 4:00pm: Georgia +1.8 (ML: +120, A grade: +150) vs Alabama -1.8 (ML: -120, A grade: +104), Total: 57.7
Sat 4:00pm: Appalachian State +8 (ML: +236, A grade: +312) at Troy -8 (ML: -236, A grade: -183), Total: 53.8
Sat 8:00pm: Louisville +8.4 (ML: +270, A grade: +365) vs Florida State -8.4 (ML: -270, A grade: -208), Total: 44.8
Sat 8:00pm: Michigan -17.5 (ML: -1163, A grade: -645) vs Iowa +17.5 (ML: +1163, A grade: +4033), Total: 35.6

Boise State at UNLV: UNLV +126 (A grade: risk 1.33u to win 1.67u)
SMU at Tulane: SMU +160 (A grade: risk 1.15u to win 1.85u)
Georgia vs Alabama: Alabama +172 (A grade: risk 1.1u to win 1.9u)
Louisville vs Florida State: Florida State -172 (A grade: risk 1.9u to win 1.1u)

Screenshot 2023-11-26 at 3.46.27 PM.png

Fri 7:00pm ET: New Mexico State at Liberty
- SideLine: New Mexico State has a 19% win probability (+414) … A grade: +616
- The model thinks they should be 12.9 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #52 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 103)
- Diego Pavia (#27 ranked QB, grade: 119) is listed as 100%, giving them 3.2 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #56 (Grade: 102)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #87 (99), pass blocking: #104 (93) RB: #66 (104) run blocking: #86 (97)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #56 (Grade: 97) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #93 (Grade: 108) and a run defense efficiency ranked #108 (Grade: 111)
- Their pace ranks #129 (Grade: 77)
- SideLine: Liberty has a 81% win probability (-414) … A grade: -301
- The model thinks they should be 12.9 point favorites
- They’re ranked #14 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 120)
- Kaidon Salter (#18 ranked QB, grade: 124) is listed as 100%, giving them 4 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #9 (Grade: 122)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #77 (102), pass blocking: #64 (106) RB: #25 (120) run blocking: #39 (112)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #29 (Grade: 89) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #17 (Grade: 80) and a run defense efficiency ranked #31 (Grade: 88)
- Their pace ranks #60 (Grade: 102)
- SideLine Projected Total: 53.2
- Projected Score: Liberty 33 New Mexico State 20

Fri 8:00pm ET: Oregon vs Washington
- SideLine: Oregon has a 72% win probability (-255) … A grade: -197
- The model thinks they should be 9.1 point favorites
- They’re ranked #6 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 130)
- Bo Nix (#5 ranked QB, grade: 136) is listed as 100%, giving them 6 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #5 (Grade: 127)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #8 (127), pass blocking: #2 (129) RB: #12 (127) run blocking: #7 (124)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #12 (Grade: 76) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #14 (Grade: 78) and a run defense efficiency ranked #54 (Grade: 97)
- Their pace ranks #75 (Grade: 95)
- SideLine: Washington has a 28% win probability (+255) … A grade: +341
- The model thinks they should be 9.1 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #18 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 117)
- Michael Penix Jr. (#6 ranked QB, grade: 136) is listed as 100%, giving them 5.9 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #12 (Grade: 121)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #5 (129), pass blocking: #14 (120) RB: #15 (125) run blocking: #62 (107)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #39 (Grade: 93) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #27 (Grade: 87) and a run defense efficiency ranked #60 (Grade: 98)
- Their pace ranks #51 (Grade: 105)
- SideLine Projected Total: 57.6
- Projected Score: Oregon 33 Washington 24

Sat 12:00pm ET: Oklahoma State vs Texas
- SideLine: Oklahoma State has a 13% win probability (+647) … A grade: +1167
- The model thinks they should be 17.8 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #67 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 100)
- Alan Bowman (#83 ranked QB, grade: 101) is listed as 100%, giving them 0.2 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #41 (Grade: 109)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #52 (110), pass blocking: #39 (111) RB: #21 (122) run blocking: #61 (107)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #104 (Grade: 111) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #98 (Grade: 110) and a run defense efficiency ranked #105 (Grade: 109)
- Their pace ranks #20 (Grade: 117)
- SideLine: Texas has a 87% win probability (-647) … A grade: -429
- The model thinks they should be 17.8 point favorites
- They’re ranked #10 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 124)
- Quinn Ewers (#19 ranked QB, grade: 123) is listed as 100%, giving them 3.9 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #17 (Grade: 118)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #10 (125), pass blocking: #3 (127) RB: #61 (105) run blocking: #58 (107)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #13 (Grade: 77) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #19 (Grade: 82) and a run defense efficiency ranked #29 (Grade: 87)
- Their pace ranks #53 (Grade: 104)
- SideLine Projected Total: 60.4
- Projected Score: Texas 39 Oklahoma State 21

Sat 12:00pm ET: Miami (OH) vs Toledo
- SideLine: Miami (OH) has a 34% win probability (+197) … A grade: +255
- The model thinks they should be 5.6 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #41 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 106)
- Aveon Smith (#111 ranked QB, grade: 93) is listed as 100%, giving them -1.2 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #70 (Grade: 98)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #59 (107), pass blocking: #80 (101) RB: #89 (95) run blocking: #42 (111)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #21 (Grade: 86) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #86 (Grade: 106) and a run defense efficiency ranked #20 (Grade: 81)
- Their pace ranks #126 (Grade: 78)
- SideLine: Toledo has a 66% win probability (-197) … A grade: -155
- The model thinks they should be 5.6 point favorites
- They’re ranked #21 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 115)
- Dequan Finn (#53 ranked QB, grade: 111) is listed as 100%, giving them 1.9 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #37 (Grade: 110)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #69 (105), pass blocking: #27 (114) RB: #42 (113) run blocking: #71 (102)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #18 (Grade: 85) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #6 (Grade: 66) and a run defense efficiency ranked #23 (Grade: 82)
- Their pace ranks #72 (Grade: 97)
- SideLine Projected Total: 41.9
- Projected Score: Toledo 24 Miami (OH) 18

Sat 3:00pm ET: Boise State at UNLV
- SideLine: Boise State has a 44% win probability (+127) … A grade: +160
- The model thinks they should be 2.5 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #61 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 102)
- Taylen Green (#91 ranked QB, grade: 99) is listed as 100%, giving them -0.1 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #28 (Grade: 113)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #34 (117), pass blocking: #76 (103) RB: #1 (141) run blocking: #47 (110)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #107 (Grade: 112) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #108 (Grade: 112) and a run defense efficiency ranked #111 (Grade: 114)
- Their pace ranks #101 (Grade: 89)
- SideLine: UNLV has a 56% win probability (-127) … A grade: -102
- The model thinks they should be 2.5 point favorites
- They’re ranked #59 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 102)
- Jayden Maiava (#89 ranked QB, grade: 100) is listed as 100%, giving them -0.1 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #32 (Grade: 112)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #33 (117), pass blocking: #65 (106) RB: #56 (108) run blocking: #103 (92)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #102 (Grade: 111) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #128 (Grade: 124) and a run defense efficiency ranked #79 (Grade: 103)
- Their pace ranks #65 (Grade: 99)
- SideLine Projected Total: 65.3
- Projected Score: UNLV 34 Boise State 31

Sat 4:00pm ET: SMU at Tulane
- SideLine: SMU has a 74% win probability (-284) … A grade: -217
- The model thinks they should be 8.9 point favorites
- They’re ranked #11 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 124)
- Preston Stone (#9 ranked QB, grade: 134) is listed as 20%, giving them 1.4 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #33 (Grade: 112)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #44 (114), pass blocking: #7 (123) RB: #105 (89) run blocking: #6 (124)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #7 (Grade: 71) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #9 (Grade: 70) and a run defense efficiency ranked #9 (Grade: 75)
- Their pace ranks #18 (Grade: 119)
- SideLine: Tulane has a 26% win probability (+284) … A grade: +387
- The model thinks they should be 8.9 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #35 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 109)
- Michael Pratt (#25 ranked QB, grade: 120) is listed as 100%, giving them 3.3 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #66 (Grade: 99)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #17 (121), pass blocking: #54 (108) RB: #46 (111) run blocking: #65 (105)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #17 (Grade: 84) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #18 (Grade: 81) and a run defense efficiency ranked #49 (Grade: 96)
- Their pace ranks #87 (Grade: 92)
- SideLine Projected Total: 45.2
- Projected Score: SMU 27 Tulane 18

Sat 4:00pm ET: Georgia vs Alabama
- SideLine: Georgia has a 45% win probability (+120) … A grade: +150
- The model thinks they should be 1.8 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #5 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 131)
- Carson Beck (#2 ranked QB, grade: 138) is listed as 100%, giving them 6.4 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #1 (Grade: 137)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #1 (137), pass blocking: #1 (131) RB: #3 (134) run blocking: #2 (130)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #22 (Grade: 86) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #12 (Grade: 77) and a run defense efficiency ranked #77 (Grade: 103)
- Their pace ranks #112 (Grade: 86)
- SideLine: Alabama has a 55% win probability (-120) … A grade: +104
- The model thinks they should be 1.8 point favorites
- They’re ranked #2 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 134)
- Jalen Milroe (#8 ranked QB, grade: 134) is listed as 100%, giving them 5.6 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #4 (Grade: 130)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #4 (130), pass blocking: #4 (124) RB: #30 (116) run blocking: #3 (130)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #8 (Grade: 73) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #2 (Grade: 61) and a run defense efficiency ranked #16 (Grade: 79)
- Their pace ranks #80 (Grade: 94)
- SideLine Projected Total: 57.7
- Projected Score: Alabama 30 Georgia 28

Sat 4:00pm ET: Appalachian State at Troy
- SideLine: Appalachian State has a 30% win probability (+236) … A grade: +312
- The model thinks they should be 8 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #30 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 111)
- Joey Aguilar (#28 ranked QB, grade: 119) is listed as 100%, giving them 3.1 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #21 (Grade: 116)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #40 (115), pass blocking: #87 (100) RB: #64 (104) run blocking: #36 (112)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #68 (Grade: 99) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #30 (Grade: 88) and a run defense efficiency ranked #118 (Grade: 117)
- Their pace ranks #40 (Grade: 108)
- SideLine: Troy has a 70% win probability (-236) … A grade: -183
- The model thinks they should be 8 point favorites
- They’re ranked #15 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 119)
- Gunnar Watson (#16 ranked QB, grade: 128) is listed as 100%, giving them 4.6 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #47 (Grade: 107)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #53 (110), pass blocking: #82 (101) RB: #17 (124) run blocking: #97 (95)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #9 (Grade: 74) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #15 (Grade: 79) and a run defense efficiency ranked #7 (Grade: 74)
- Their pace ranks #69 (Grade: 98)
- SideLine Projected Total: 53.8
- Projected Score: Troy 31 Appalachian State 23

Sat 8:00pm ET: Louisville vs Florida State
- SideLine: Louisville has a 27% win probability (+270) … A grade: +365
- The model thinks they should be 8.4 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #24 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 114)
- Jack Plummer (#48 ranked QB, grade: 112) is listed as 100%, giving them 1.9 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #36 (Grade: 112)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #49 (112), pass blocking: #37 (111) RB: #20 (122) run blocking: #15 (119)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #23 (Grade: 87) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #25 (Grade: 87) and a run defense efficiency ranked #14 (Grade: 79)
- Their pace ranks #118 (Grade: 84)
- SideLine: Florida State has a 73% win probability (-270) … A grade: -208
- The model thinks they should be 8.4 point favorites
- They’re ranked #8 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 128)
- Tate Rodemaker (#35 ranked QB, grade: 115) is listed as 100%, giving them 2.5 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #19 (Grade: 117)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #7 (127), pass blocking: #5 (124) RB: #7 (129) run blocking: #4 (128)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #6 (Grade: 70) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #8 (Grade: 68) and a run defense efficiency ranked #15 (Grade: 79)
- Their pace ranks #83 (Grade: 93)
- SideLine Projected Total: 44.8
- Projected Score: Florida State 27 Louisville 18

Sat 8:00pm ET: Michigan vs Iowa
- SideLine: Michigan has a 92% win probability (-1163) … A grade: -645
- The model thinks they should be 17.5 point favorites
- They’re ranked #1 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 137)
- J.J. McCarthy (#7 ranked QB, grade: 134) is listed as 100%, giving them 5.6 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #3 (Grade: 131)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #3 (134), pass blocking: #20 (116) RB: #14 (125) run blocking: #8 (124)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #5 (Grade: 68) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #1 (Grade: 61) and a run defense efficiency ranked #6 (Grade: 73)
- Their pace ranks #133 (Grade: 65)
- SideLine: Iowa has a 8% win probability (+1163) … A grade: +4033
- The model thinks they should be 17.5 point underdogs
- They’re ranked #38 according to SideLine (Overall grade: 108)
- Deacon Hill (#124 ranked QB, grade: 86) is listed as 100%, giving them -2.3 points for the QB position
- Their offensive efficiency ranks #99 (Grade: 90)
- Offensive efficiency position group ranks (grades in parentheses): WR/TE: #64 (106), pass blocking: #59 (107) RB: #83 (97) run blocking: #22 (116)
- Their defensive efficiency ranks #11 (Grade: 75) based on a pass defense efficiency ranked #11 (Grade: 72) and a run defense efficiency ranked #11 (Grade: 76)
- Their pace ranks #108 (Grade: 88)
- SideLine Projected Total: 35.6
- Projected Score: Michigan 27 Iowa 9

Butler/Boise St (4pm ET tip)

ProfessorSides Published 1 week ago

Total is now 142, making the over an A grade

About me

I’m a PhD statistician who has built mathematical models to predict various sports outcomes. I also use my expertise of probability to identify good numbers/prices for bets. For more explanations visit www.pickswiththeprofessor.com/new.

My performance

2023 NFL: 27% ROI on A grade sides [n=60], 20% ROI on recommended totals [n=35] (all through Week 12)
2023 CFB: 6% ROI on A grade sides [n=226], 6% ROI on recommended totals [n=73] (all through Week 13)
2023 MLB: Plus money on A grade regular season sides [n=1111], 1% ROI on the POTD [n=200], 1% ROI on recommended totals [n=768]
22-23 CBB: 9% ROI on A grade ML plays [n=185] in March (debut of ML model)
2022 CFB: 54% picking every spread from Week 8 on; 37-17-1 in bowl games between spreads and totals
2022 MLB: 4% ROI on A grade sides