BallparkPal

Happy National Eat Outside Day!

We have another full Saturday slate to get ready for - all 30 teams in action with three afternoon games and 12 set for the evening. Things get started in The Bronx with the Yankees hosting the Cardinals. 25 year-old rookie Will Warren gets the start for New York as he looks to correct a particularly rocky start to his career in the Majors.

Despite a decent strikeout rate, Warren has allowed 19 earned runs over just 17 innings thus far - earning him a 9.68 ERA over his first 4 big league starts. From a glass-half-full perspective, the BP pitching model actually likes his stuff. He has a wide 5-pitch arsenal, working in three different fastball types - all of which appear to be plus pitches. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Warren regress toward expectations as he gains experience (and perhaps gets a bit luckier).

On the more positive end of the pitching spectrum there are two standout matchups slated for this evening. The first of which is a battle of southpaws with Cole Ragans facing off across from Yusei Kikuchi in Houston. 2024 has been the first complete season for Ragans as a full-time starter and he’s certainly risen to the occasion with a 3.28 ERA over 27 starts. The more veteran Kikuchi is having one of the best stretches of his career since being traded to the Astros. He’s upped his K rate from 26% to 31% and only allowed 9 earned runs over 5 starts and 28 innings with Houston.

The other marquee pitcher’s duel is Max Fried vs Zack Wheeler in Philadelphia. Wheeler, who’s been a stud all year, has had an unsurprisingly dominant August allowing just 7 earned runs through 5 starts and 32 innings while racking up 37 strikeouts.

While August hasn’t been as kind to Fried (5.26 ERA over 5 starts), he’s put together a complete season for the Braves. Fried has always been one of the pitchers the BP model hasn’t loved despite the sustained results. His underwhelming 4-seam outperforms expectations, likely owing in part to his complete and diverse arsenal which keeps hitters off balance.

It’s another excellent day for park factors with green numbers up and down the slate once again. It helps when Coors and GABP are both in action, but we have warm weather and some out-blowing wind featured at several other venues to round out the hitter-friendly expectations for Saturday.

The most up-to-date information from the BP sims can always be found at BallparkPal dot com, which will update as soon as possible when information changes and as lineups lock in. As a reminder, your subscription to this Research Feed does NOT include full access to the website, which requires its own unique subscription.

Complete summaries, details and explanations for ALL of the graphics provided as part of the BP Research Feed are available at this link.

Full insight into the methodology and techniques used in the Ballpark Pal model can also be found right here.

If you have any questions for us, we can be reached by DM on Twitter/X via @BallparkPal or by email at support at ballparkpal dot com.

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Happy National Toasted Marshmallow Day!

We’ve got a bonus-sized 16-game schedule and a full set of new series to take us into the weekend!

Things get going at 12:40pm ET with Game One of a Brewers @ Reds doubleheader, where the top home run venue in the league will be supplemented by excellent hitting conditions: we’re looking at temperatures in the mid-90s at first pitch. Great American Ball Park saw six home runs under similar conditions yesterday and it should be fun to get 18 innings in Cincinnati today.

Game Two of the twinbill will feature the anticipated debut of Rhett Lowder, the Wake Forest product who was taken seventh overall in last year’s draft. Currently ranked as the Reds #4 prospect, the long-haired righty spent his first month of Minor League ball in High-A before moving up to AA Chattanooga, where he’s spent most of the season, accumulating a 4.31 ERA across 16 starts.

Lowder made his lone start for the AAA Louisville Bats last week, striking out seven across six shutout innings to truly punch his ticket to The Show. He features what appears to be a very solid four-pitch arsenal, with a four-seamer that sits about 94mph and a slider that is generally considered his best pitch.

Making a big league debut at GABP in hot weather won’t be the easiest start to his MLB career, so we’ll be interested to see how well he does at keeping the Brewers in the yard tonight.

Angels lefty prospect Samuel Aldegheri will also be making his first MLB start on Friday night (9:38pm ET), when he’ll become the first pitcher born and raised in Italy to play in the Majors.

The 22-year-old signed with Philadelphia all the way back in 2019 before being traded to the Angels last month. He’s thrown more than 200 innings in the minors, though none of them have been at a level higher than AA. His most recent stint with the AA Rocket City Trash Pandas saw him notch a 5.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP across four starts, so it will be interesting to see him after a jump to the bigs.

We still have some other pitching uncertainty on the slate, with no official starter listed for the Cubs, Tigers or Brewers (Game Two). Based on reporting we’ve spotted, we’ve penciled in Shota Imanaga for Chicago, Casey Mize for Detroit and left Milwaukee undecided.

That means that ALL data in the feed from Brewers @ Reds will be referring to Game One today.

The most up-to-date information from the BP sims can always be found at BallparkPal dot com, which will update as soon as possible when information changes and as lineups lock in. As a reminder, your subscription to this Research Feed does NOT include full access to the website, which requires its own unique subscription.

Complete summaries, details and explanations for ALL of the graphics provided as part of the BP Research Feed are available at this link.

Full insight into the methodology and techniques used in the Ballpark Pal model can also be found right here.

If you have any questions for us, we can be reached by DM on Twitter/X via @BallparkPal or by email at support at ballparkpal dot com.

Thank you again for subscribing!