CallingOurShot

Hello all! 3 NFL Picks for Sunday are below. I’ve had a busy day. Usually get more posted to you guys than this. For now, we start with 3. I might have a few more tonight, or just post them tomorrow morning after the NBA Picks. Either way, let’s bounce back after that backbreaking 0-3 day on Thursday.

Season to Date: +6.46 Units

The Picks:
1u - Nick Chubb (CLE) OVER 12.5 Rush Attempts (-108, FanDuel)
1u - DeMario Douglas (NE) OVER 3.5 Receptions (-125, Bet365)
0.25u - DeMario Douglas 5+ Receptions (+190, Bet365)
1u - Jared Goff (DET) UNDER 34.5 Longest Completion (-115, DraftKings)

Analysis in previous posts!

Analysis:

1u - Nick Chubb (CLE) OVER 12.5 Rush Attempts (-108, FanDuel)

Playable to 13.5 for 1 Unit
In his 1st game back, Chubb saw 11 rush attempts (other RBs accounted for 5 total). 52 Pass Attempts.
In the 1st Half, they had 1 drive last longer than 4 plays.
His last rush attempt was with 4:29 left in the 3rd Quarter.
They were down 7-6 at half. Their 1st drive after half was 8 plays, 6 passes, 2 runs by Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This Browns Offense has been very pass happy this season.
With Chubb finally back, and them onto Jameis Winston, and with a new playcaller, Ken Dorsey, you just have to hope they run the ball a little more.
The Ravens Rush Defense has been very good…but they are coming off a short week. The Buccaneers had success running the football. Despite trailing most of that game, the Buccaneers still had 24 RB Rush Attempts.
Chubb only played 36% of snaps last week. I think that number goes up this week. I’m willing to take a chance on him rushing 13+ times.
Chubb has great numbers historically vs. the Ravens. Let’s see if he can turn back the clock.
The Browns are heavy underdogs, but I believe they can be competitive here. Jameis can move the football. Extend drives and get us some rush attempts on 1st or 2nd down.

1u - DeMario Douglas (NE) OVER 3.5 Receptions (-125, Bet365)
0.25u - DeMario Douglas 5+ Receptions (+190, Bet365)

Regular Line Playable to -150
If you want to reduce the juice, parlay this with Davante Adams 25+ Receiving Yards. That is a free square this weekend.
Last week, people got burned by Douglas. He randomly got sick in London and played just 20 total snaps.
Prior to that, Douglas had played well.
DeMario’s previous 4 games before getting sick: 7, 3, 6 & 6 Receptions.
That included a Thursday Night game vs. the Jets where he had 7 (2 of which came from Maye on his only drive).
The Jets Rushing Defense has sucked, but I believe they are better than that. The Jets are also 7 Point favorites on the Road. DeMario is a slot guy. They design ways to get him the ball. Outside of him, the rest of their WRs are pretty bad. DeMario will get the looks.
Also like his OVER in Yards.

1u - Jared Goff (DET) UNDER 34.5 Longest Completion (-115, DraftKings)

Playable to 33.5
Goff is OVER this line in 5 of 6 games played.
In 3 of those games, his Longest Completion went to Jameson Williams.
Big News of the Week: Jameson Williams is suspended for 2 games. Big loss for them. While the Lions have capable guys like Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond and Allen Robinson to fill in…how likely is Jared Goff to throw it deep to those guys.
No one on the Lions has a longest reception line above 22.5 (Amon-Ra).
The Titans allow the 3rd fewest pass yards per attempt and 2nd fewest pass yards per game. Only 2 QBs have gone over this line vs. TEN (Malik Willis and Josh Allen).
Josh Allen’s Long Completion was on a broken play where he got out of the pocket. We all know that’s not Jared Goff’s game.
The Lions also find themselves as 11.5 Point favorites. It is assumed that they win this game. Could they beat up the Titans and use some trick plays? Maybe…but with a date against the Packers in Lambeau next week, I could see them saving those plays for another day.
I love this under.

Good Morning all! 1 final NBA Play for the day. I’ll list at the bottom others I looked at, but I’ll just stick to this 1 and call it a day. I wrote an article on it…I encourage you to check that out.

The Added Play:
0.50u - Dillon Brooks (HOU) OVER 9.5 Points (+105, DraftKings)

My Analysis (in this article): https://www.oddschecker.com/us/picks-parlays/basketball/nba/20241025-memphis-grizzlies-vs-houston-rockets-best-bet-can-dillon-brooks-get-revenge-on-his-former-team

Other Plays I Looked At:
Mikal Bridges SGP: 10+ Points, u3.5 Assists
Ja Morant o6.5 Assists
Keyonte George o14.5 Points
Zion Williamson UNDER 25.5 Points
Jerami Grant OVER 17.5 Points

Not worth having TOO much volume.
I’ll stick to the plays we have. Good luck tonight!