NFL 2024: -1.55 Units
Steelers vs Bengals Under 48 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units
Based on the matchup, this should be a relatively high scoring game. The Bengals defense is still a bottom ten unit in the NFL, and their offense with Higgins and Chase is a top five unit in the NFL. But this just isn’t a normal game, this is an AFC rivalry game, and when that happens, history tells us this will be a low scoring battle.
Since Joe Burrow became the QB for the Bengals, Steelers vs Bengals game’s have gone under 48 points in five of seven matchups. That’s just the beginning of how many trends are pointing us to this under.
Divisional unders when the total is above 44.5 and the game is outdoors from November to December are 189-128-5 (60%)
Since 2017, when both teams have 8+ days of rest (Bengals coming off a bye, Steelers played on Thursday night) the under is 113-65 (63.5%)
Mike Tomlin road unders are 57-29 (66%) since he took over for the Steelers
Shawn Hoculi will be reffing this game, and I only bring you referee trends when they are outliers. Hoculi is an absurd 26-12-1 (70%) to the under in divisional games in his career as the head referee. No crew calls a higher per-game average of false starts and offensive holding calls than Hochuli’s group, so both offenses could get caught with more flags than usual.
All of these systems are from Action Network BetLabs, and this one I found from Ralph Michaels from Wagertalk. When the Steelers are facing a team that averages 35 passing attempts per game, the under is 29-9 (76.3%) hit rate.
The cold weather should impact the passing game, and the Steelers fifth ranked secondary by dropback EPA should continue to limit the big play from the Bengals, and in turn the Steelers should reveal a run heavy game script, against a suspect Bengals run defense, keeping the drives long and wasting clock.
I definitely lean towards the Steelers at +3, but with more trends backing the under, and how these games often come down to a coin flip, the under 48 is the way to go, and I would still play this as long as it’s above the key number of 47 to win one unit.
Jayden Daniels Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-113) Risk 1.13 Units
For our next pick, we are looking at a player prop in the Titans vs. Commanders game, and it’s reminiscent of last week’s easy cash on CJ Stroud over rushing yards. The Titans defense continues to leave holes open for running quarterbacks, and Daniels is a great spot to take advantage.
Not only is the matchup great for Daniels, he’ll likely be forced to run to develop a ground game for the Commanders. Running back Austin Ekeler is out after suffering a concussion last week against the Cowboys.
Starting running back Brian Robinson has been a limited practice participant after suffering an ankle injury in that same game. Without those two, Daniels was forced to use his legs, recording 74 rushing yards against the Cowboys.
This line should be in the 40s, but he went under this line in three straight before this game. He also suffered a rib injury in week 7 against Carolina, so it’s understandable that the Commanders didn’t design as many run plays for him, but now he’s healthy, and they barely have any running backs to lean on.
This is one of the easiest matchups for him all season. They’ve allowed QB’s to go over their rushing line in four straight games, and rank 26th in rushing yards allowed to QB’s.
Daniels also has been crushing this line at home this year. In six home games, he’s been over this line five times, averaging 51.2 rushing yards per game.
I expect the Commanders to key on his running ability in this matchup, especially because the Titans’ pass defense is rounding into form, ranking 12th in dropback EPA over the last five weeks. Daniels also has dropped off in terms of efficiency, ranking 23rd in completion percentage over that span.
Likely without a full workload from Robinson, and no Ekeler, I expect plenty of designed runs for Daniels in this game coupled with large holes left in the Titans defense that we’ve seen over the past four weeks. Daniels has a lot of upside on the ground this week, so give me over 37.5 rushing yards at -110 to win one unit.
Alvin Kamara 40+ Receiving Yards (+110) (1 Unit Risk), 50+ Receiving Yards (+195) (Risk 0.5 Units)
I’m a Rams fan, and when I saw who we had on deck, I was immediately nervous that Alvin Kamara would have a dominant game as a pass catcher in this one. The Rams run defense has stepped up since the midway point of the season, but they are allowing 8.2 yards per catch to running backs, ranking 25th in the league.
In general, they’ve allowed the 23rd most receiving yards to running backs, and now they have a date with a running back with the highest targeted running back in the NFL.
This is do or die for the Saints, and with no Chris Olave or Rasheed Shahid, I expect Derek Carr to make Kamara a focal point in the passing attack.
He had at least five receptions in seven straight games before last week, when the Saints completely blew out the Browns. The Saints are 2.5 or 3 point underdogs, depending on where you shop, and a matchup against the Rams team, which is clearly much better than Cleveland, should keep this game close.
I bring up the receptions because of the Rams’ inability to stop running backs as pass-catchers. If he gets his typical five receptions at 8.2 yards that the Rams are giving up, we are looking at 40 receiving yards, and that’s for average running backs, not Alvin Kamara
The Rams also play zone coverage at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. Kamara excels in finding soft spots in these zone defenses and often adjusts his routes on the fly, which is super effective on these short/intermediate routes where we just need one big run to get close to this number.
The Chargers are much better at stopping running backs out of the backfield, but they play even more zone coverage than the Rams do, and Kamara went for over 50 yards receiving against them. The Panthers play the seventh most zone coverage, Kamara went for 60 yards against them. The Falcons play the third most zone coverage, Kamara had 54 against them in his last game, and 42 against them the first game.
I think this could end up being one of Kamara’s best games as a receiver all season long, and I love the bounce-back narrative after only recording 22 yards against a Browns team where the game script fell out of wack, and the Browns play man coverage at the fourth highest rate in the NFL.
We are doing a mini ladder for Kamara, and I only want the plus money. Give me Alvin Kamara 40+ receiving yards at +110, risking 1 unit, and 50+ receiving yards at +195 for a half unit.
Eagles vs Ravens Under 51.5 (-115) Risk 1.15 Units
We are looking at the total between the Ravens and Eagles for our next pick in this time slot. We bet a similar line for the Ravens and Chargers game, and we lost on the under in the last 45 seconds. It happens, and now the Ravens are an absurd 10-2 to the over this season. The Eagles are also coming off a game in where we bet the under, as Saquon bursted for a 70 yard touchdown as the Eagles were draining down the clock. It’s only right we bet the under again between two teams who crushed our dreams last week.
The Ravens are the NFL’s best offense, but they have a matchup against the NFL’s best defense since the middle of the season. The Eagles are now the sixth best defense by EPA over the entire season, but since their bye week, they are the number one defense by EPA, ranking second against both the pass and the run.
In that same time span, the Ravens are ninth in EPA on defense. Saquon Barkley is a man on a mission, but he has a very difficult matchup against the Ravens fourth best run defense by EPA since the Eagles bye week, and overall this season, the Ravens rank 2nd in rushing EPA per play on defense.
The one area of weakness when we look at both defenses is the passing defense in Baltimore. I will give them credit, they held Justin Herbert to just 218 yards passing last week, and over their last five games, they rank 12th against the pass. Devonta Smith said he’s “unsure” if he’ll play, and we should expect Kyle Hamilton and company to key in on AJ Brown.
Both teams should get their points here, but 51.5 is just too high, especially when this game was bumped up from the lookahead of 49 points due to both teams being in games that were in the 50s last week.
I would not have budged off the lookahead of 49, as both games didn’t deserve to go over the total, so I think we are getting 2.5 points of value here, and it being over the key number of 51, a score of 27-24 would still keep us under at 51.5 at -115. At 51, I still like it, as does my model on rithmm, giving us a 55.7% chance of staying under 51. So I’m going back to the well and going with Ravens vs Eagles under 51.5 to win one unit at -115.
49ers +6.5 (-115) Risk 1.15 Units
For our last pick, we are taking a side for 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.
How things can change. The 49ers were 2.5 point favorites in this spot before the season started, and were just 3 point underdogs on the lookahead line just last week. The 49ers got absolutely demolished by the Packers, and the Bills are off six straight wins, including an enormous win over the Chiefs, and then they went on their bye week. Teams in the NFL rarely want to hit the bye week when on a hot streak as it can hurt momentum, and there is no hungrier spot for the 49ers than this one.
The 49ers come into this game in do-or-die mode, but they’ll be without Trent Williams and Nick Bosa in this one, but luckily for San Francisco, Brock Purdy is projected to be back after dealing with a shoulder problem. The 49ers will have all of their key pieces on offense ready for this one outside of big Trent, and they’ll need every ounce if they expect to keep up with the Bills.
By gametime, it’s expected to be really cold in Buffalo with potential light snow and some wind. Nothing absurd like some Buffalo games we’ve seen during these winter months, but still, the weather is not looking all that fun to play in.
Weather will undoubtedly affect this game, which puts more of an emphasis on the run game for both teams. The 49ers were totally unable to run the ball last week based on the Packers taking an early lead, and stacking the box with Brandon Allen at QB. With Purdy back, the secondary has to respect his arm, giving more lanes to Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason in this game. I almost went with McCaffrey over rushing yards, but I think both RB’s will be a part of the game plan.
Buffalo’s run defense can be exploited in this matchup. They allow 4.9 yards per carry to running backs this season, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Compare that to the 49ers, who are allowing 4.2 yards per carry, which ranks 9th in the NFL. As the weather is likely to reduce this game to a run-heavy game script, the 49ers have the advantage in this one.
Both passing defenses have been very similar, as the Bills rank 11th in Dropback EPA and the 49ers rank 12th. Clearly, Josh Allen is the preferred QB in this game over Brock Purdy, but Purdy has better weapons in this game who are better in space. With likely slick fields, we should see the 49ers weapons make a larger impact when getting the ball over the Bills weapons on offense.
I see a path to victory here for San Francisco if they can establish the run here, and with weather likely impacting the passing game, the 49ers should stay within the number, and my model is absolutely screaming at me to take it, making the line closer to that lookahead line of +3. Over the key number at +6.5 is what I’m looking at here in a last ditch effort for the 49ers to remain relevant, so give me the 49ers +6.5, playable down to +6 or better.
