Erick Fedde ripped our hearts out. We took him over 15.5 pitching outs on Wednesday. He goes out for the sixth inning with 79 pitches. He gets a ground ball to second base and he boots it. Fedde goes on to walk two straight batters and the White Sox took him out.
Luckily, we also bet the Brewers, and they crushed the Reds, so it was a small losing day. It should have been a sweep, so now we sweep today with three picks.
2024 Record: 17-22 (-5.43 U)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Pablo Lopez vs. Tarik Skubal
Yesterday, I bet the Tigers’ money line. I thought both pitchers would dominate, but the Tigers had the bullpen advantage after a rest day. The Twins had used their high leverage guys, so I thought the Tigers would win in a low scoring game.
The game was postponed, so the Twins get their high leverage guys back for this game. However, the Tigers ML price stayed the same as did the total. That shifted my focus to the under, because the more I looked into it, I simply can’t fade Pablo Lopez against this Tigers offense.
Both of these offenses are underwhelming. Against right-handed pitching at home, the Tigers have a 59 wRC+ while hitting .182. Against righties in general, they are still a below average offense.
As you can see, Lopez has dominated the Tigers current roster. In his lone start in Comerica last year, he tossed seven shutout innings. He also put up a 3.10 ERA in road games last season compared to a 4.21 ERA in home games. He’s facing a below average offense in a better spot for him. Now that the Twins bullpen is ready, it’s hard for me to fade that, especially taking the Tigers as a favorite.
The reason I like the Tigers is Tarik Skubal and this bullpen. I could post Skubal’s numbers against this current roster, but he hasn’t faced them since 2022. When he did face them in Comerica, he also threw seven shutout innings.
Skubal is arguably the best left-handed pitcher in baseball. His 2.92 ERA is elite, but his 1.70 xERA is in the 94th percentile. He’s facing a Twins offense that is off to a good start against lefties overall, but they haven’t beaten good left-handed starters. Chris Sale, Cole Ragans, and James Paxton threw 15 innings against this Twins team and allowed four runs.
These are two of the best bullpens in baseball behind them. The Twins have a 1.35 ERA (2nd), and the Tigers have a 1.47 ERA (3rd). They both had an off day, so everyone should be available. I still think the Tigers have the bullpen advantage, even with health on both sides.
The wind is projected to hit this game hard, with 15 MPH winds blowing out to the left. If some players connect for home runs, I’ll tip my cap. The Tigers rank third to last in ISO, so it’s doubtful it comes from them. The Twins have power, but let’s see them do it against Skubal with some extra rest.
I got the worst number as it’s creeping up due to the heavy winds. I’m not shying away because of wind. I’m on this under.
Projection: 6.5 Runs
The Pick: Under 7 (-115) Risk 1.15 Units
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Steven Matz vs. Brandon Pfaadt
I was looking for the first five innings in this matchup, but it’s much more expensive than taking it through the full game. The Diamondbacks have demolished left-handed pitching at home, and overall, they have better defense and offense. I also think they have a slightly better starter on the mound.
I can’t stop betting on Brandon Pfaadt. He has excellent command, a high strikeout rate, and a low Hard-Hit rate compared to last year. He’s coming off a rough start against the Braves, so now, I think, is a good time to buy low on him.
His 3.33 xERA compared to his 5.06 ERA confirms my bias for him. He’s a better pitcher than what he’s shown thus far. The Cardinals have yet to see him, which bodes well for Pfaadt today. He also gets to face a lineup that has an 81 wRC+ against righties, good for fifth worst in the league so far.
Opposing Pfaadt is Steven Matz. Today, the left-hander has a tough matchup against this Arizona offense. Against lefties at home this year, they’ve put up an absurd 170 wRC+, 70% better than the league-average offense in that spot. Overall, they have the sixth-best wRC+ against lefties in the league while hitting .301 as a team.
They’ve faced Matz over 55 PA. As a team, they are hitting .296. Matz’s 4.63 xERA tells me he’s sustained some luck and has a game against the Marlins. I don’t believe in his 1.74 ERA. Also, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte are two of the best sinker hitters in the league, a pitch Matz throws 55% of the time.
The bullpens are about even. The Cardinals slightly edge out the Snakes from a peripheral standpoint, but the Diamondbacks have the better bullpen ERA. In the later innings, this is a wash.
I think the Diamondbacks have the better starter, offense, and defense. The bullpens are a wash, and we get the home team. While these pitchers have drastically different ERA’s to start, the Diamondbacks should win this game going away.
Projection: Diamondbacks ML (-155)
The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120) Risk 1.2 Units
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Michael King vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
I went into this game looking for a way to back Yamamoto. I still believe he’s one of the best pitchers in the world, and he’s been dominating over his past two starts. His first start was a disaster against these Padres, which is why I think we are seeing value on him today. However, I still really like Michael King, and Dodgers night-games have a secret.
Shadows are often prevalent in the early goings. It’s scary to fade this Dodgers offense, and the Dodgers bullpen has yet to perform well. The Dodgers have played seven games at Dodger Stadium, and nine runs have been scored in six. However, those games’ first five under is 3-4 because the shadows make it harder to hit in the early goings.
While it’s been high scoring early, we have yet to see as good of a pitching matchup in Dodger Stadium as we do today. I’m giving him a pass while Michael King did not perform in Korea. His next two starts totaled 11 innings and two runs allowed.
I like his pitch mix in the shadows. Shoutout to Cameron Rico, a lifelong Dodger fan who clued me in on this. The Dodgers often struggle against four-seam, sinker, sweeper pitchers in the shadows. A good example is Lance Lynn, who weirdly pitched well against the Dodgers with those shadows.
From my experience, when a pitcher struggles in his first outing against a team, he normally bounces back. The batters don’t have to make adjustments because their original plan worked, so now it’s time for the pitcher to make his.
I think we see value in this due to the past history of both starters and the fact that most Dodger games have been high-scoring. Yamamoto could shut out this offense, but I don’t see more than two runs. The same goes for King. I think he can be effective and throw five innings and allow 2-3 runs. The most likely outcome is four runs scored in five innings, but one of these guys has the ability to shut out the other offense early.
I wouldn’t take this full game under, but I still like it. I don’t want to deal with either bullpens, and the shadows go away as the game continues. Early on, I think it’s low scoring
Projection: 3.9 runs in five innings
The Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110)
