I’ve already made two NFL picks for the Wild Card Round, broken down with three Super Bowl futures to prepare us for the playoffs. I’ll break all that down while reviewing my 2024 season with an updated record on the regular season and our futures.
Super Bowl Futures
Let’s start with the Super Bowl Futures. I gave out the Kansas City Chiefs at +440 for a 2.5-unit risk a while ago. It comes down to this. With the bye, they’ll have to beat the winner of Texans vs Chargers, a game in which they should cruise, and then they’ll likely face the winner of Ravens vs Bills. The Chiefs will likely be underdogs, the world will freak out, and the Chiefs find a way to win. Square, sharp, who cares? We’ve made so much on the Chiefs in the last two seasons, and I’m just rolling some of it over until they prove me wrong. The best price in the market is +370 on the Chiefs. I would still bet that.
We also gave out the Packers a few weeks ago at +1400, which accompanied a Packers ML and team total play of the month. The Packers fell short against the Vikings, but at least they covered the team total. Regardless, the Packers limped into the playoffs, and now Christian Watson is hurt, which disrupts their deep-play ability. This is a future I wish I could take back, but here we are. I still think the Packers have a shot, but with the way the line has moved on the Wild Card game, they are a better pick to roll over winnings on the ML. I lean them on the spread against the Eagles, but I haven’t decided how to play it yet.
I took the Ravens +700 for a one-unit risk before Week 18 started. They are now down to +600 in the market. This team is a top-five unit on offense and defense since the season’s midway point. They had a glaring hole in the secondary, but since week 8, they rank second in dropback EPA and fourth in success rate against the pass. This season, Lamar is number one in EPA+CPOE, and Derrick Henry can’t be stopped. I think this is the best team in the playoffs, and I am picking them to beat Buffalo if they both move on. Then, hopefully, they play the Chiefs, and in a perfect world, we have two big futures where one will make it to the Super Bowl.
Wild Card Picks
These two picks stem from a few systems that have been profitable for us over the years while also meeting the eye test. They center around the strength of schedule, fading teams with an easy schedule. The teams that played a more difficult schedule in the wild card round were 59-32-2 ATS. The more battle-tested the team is, the more likely they are to rise to the occasion against a playoff team.
That trend tells us to take:
Packers ATS vs Eagles
Bills ATS vs Broncos
Texans ATS vs Chargers
Steelers ATS vs Ravens
Bucs ATS vs Commanders
Vikings ATS vs Rams
The second is fading QBs making their first playoff start against teams with a QB with playoff experience. Teams like the Broncos, Commanders, and Vikings are 19-37-1 ATS and 19-38 SU in the first round.
The Buccaneers and the Bills are two teams that fit both of these systems. Both are at home; both have plenty of positive experiences in this round. I like the Buccaneers at -2.5, which I grabbed at -120. It’s now settled at a juiced 3, which I would still take, as I make this line Bucs -3.5. However, I think waiting will get you a better number as, right now, more total tickets and money are on the Commanders from what I’m seeing.
The next one is I took the Bills -7.5 against the Broncos. The Bills are my second-ranked team in the playoffs, behind the Ravens, and Josh Allen in Buffalo against a rookie quarterback with a defense heading in the wrong direction. That is the exact matchup I’m looking for. I made that line -9, so at 7.5, I jumped on it. I don’t expect this to go back down, as books are quick to protect against teasers, but as long as it’s at 8 or better, I’d back Buffalo.
If you aren’t sure yet or need more analysis from me on these, just wait. I’ll release my full card later this week with more analysis.
2024 Season in Review
This was a tough year for me. We’ve been profitable over the last three seasons because of underdogs and unders. We’ve all seen the trends; favorites were an absolute cash cow this season, especially in primetime. Favorites in night games went 47-12 straight up, an 80% hit rate. It was a tough pill to swallow for someone who’s been betting the opposite of that my whole betting career. I’m not someone coming on here and making excuses; it’s my fault for not adjusting.
My power rankings and the model I used did not accurately reflect how some bottom-feeding teams were so much worse than the top teams. It’s the NFL; it’s typically a sport where on any given Sunday, any team can win. That wasn’t the case this year, as ten teams had five or fewer wins. That’s a third of the league being absolute trash, and a team like the Titans went 2-15 ATS, the worst mark in NFL history. Again, it’s not to make any excuses; it’s my fault for not realizing how bad these teams were.
My only half-excuse this year is some terrible bad beats. It started in Week 1 with that Titans vs Bears game, where the Titans won and covered without scoring an offensive touchdown. It showed up in props, Tyreek Hill going over 79.5 yards, landing on 80, on the game’s last play. Joe Mixon over 59.5 rushing yards against the Chiefs, he had 60 with 12 minutes left, and ran two more times for -3 yards and lost. We had four different unders lose in the last 2 minutes; we had underdogs not covered because of one yard line blunders; we just had a lot of bad beats. Everyone has bad beats, so again, it’s not even a complete excuse, it’s just what happened, and you can have a good or bad season depending on what side of the aisle you fall on when the margins are tight.
We lost 14.18 units in the regular season, the worst mark I’ve ever had in any regular season, whether in the NFL or MLB, since 2021. I tried my best and got crushed; it was a good learning experience.
However, our futures brought it nearly all back. When starting this channel, my first videos were all about the futures, and we returned 11.70 units in profit. We hit our largest wager, the Saints under 7.5 wins at +122. We crushed all of our Lions futures and still waiting on Dan Campbell, which would net us an additional 10+ units, but unfortunately, he will likely end up losing.
We hit the Eagles division and Cowboys to miss the playoffs, and we hit four of our five season-long player props. My favorites were the INT props, as both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts only had half of their projected lines. One bet I lost was backing the Raiders; I even took them over 7.5 wins. That was a bad wager. But this was my best performance in the futures market in the NFL since I started giving picks publicly.
So, with everything added together, we are down 2.48 units on the season. If you took every play I’ve given out with the recommended units, a $100 unit bettor would be down $248. We don’t like that, but we have a full playoff schedule with Super Bowl futures to end up in the green when it’s all said and done.
