Hello all! As promised, more NFL Plays. Hereās my final 5 of the week: 3 1 Unit Plays, 2 0.5u Plays. If you missed the previous post, it includes a couple 2 Unit Plays. I encourage you to go find it.
The Picks:
1u - Alvin Kamara (NO) OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Bet365)
1u - Tyler Allgeier (ATL) OVER 25.5 Rush Yards (-113, FanDuel)
1u - 2 Leg SGP: Najee Harris (PIT) 40+ Rush Yards, Jaylen Warren (PIT) 25+ Rush Yards (-119, FanDuel)
0.5u - CJ Stroud (HOU) UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-120, FanDuel)
0.5u - Jake Elliott (PHI) OVER 6.5 Kicking Points (-115, FanDuel)
Analysis:
1u - Alvin Kamara (NO) OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Bet365)
Playable to 39.5
Kamara is at home to face the Rams. Last week, the Rams got destroyed on the ground: 255 rush yards to Saquon. I expect that to be a big focus this week. Stop the run.
By doing so, I see Kamara being force fed in the passing game, in a very solid matchup.
Kamara is o36.5 Rec Yards in 7 of 11 games. The Rams lead the NFL in Hurry Rate.
If they can get pressure on Derek Carr, he will have to go somewhere with the ball and Kamara feels like the safe underneath guy, especially given the Rams donāt blitz a ton.
Kamaraās reception line is -150 OVER 4.5. Heās OVER this line in 20 of his L30 games with 4+ Receptions.
We saw Saquon have 47 receiving yards last week. Other RBs have had decent receiving days against the Rams: 25+ for Mostert, Kenneth Walker, Charbonnet, Aaron Jones.
None of these guys are as heavily used in the receiving game as Kamara, especially with all their WRs injured. I could see him catching 6-7 passes on Sunday. Letās hope he makes the most of them.
1u - Tyler Allgeier (ATL) OVER 25.5 Rush Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Playable to 28.5
In the game before the bye week, Allgeier didnāt receiving a single carry. He played only 4 snaps.
I believe part of this was due to him getting banged up the week before with a quad injury. Then the Falcons had their bye week, so I expect things to be full system go here.
Since Week 2, Allgeier has hit this OVER in 7 of 9 games prior to Week 11. He is seeing between 5 and 12 carries per week.
While Bijan Robinson is going to lead this backfield in touches, Allgeier is still a heavy focus to the teamās rushing attack.
Since Week 4, the Chargers are allowing 5.1 yards per carry to RBs (2nd highest in the NFL).
Very few RBs that have seen 5+ Rush Attempts vs the Chargers have failed to hit this OVER. I have Allgeier closer to 7-9 attempts. Averaging 5 yards per carry this season, that puts him closer to 35 yards.
Iāll take a chance on Allgeier. If he gets hot, they will keep running it with him. I like the Falcons to lean on the run game in this matchup. Letās hope itās not 100% Bijan (which it shouldnāt be).
1u - 2 Leg SGP: Najee Harris (PIT) 40+ Rush Yards, Jaylen Warren (PIT) 25+ Rush Yards (-119, FanDuel)
I like both of these guys on Sunday vs. the Bengals.
Najee has 40+ Rush Yards in 10 of 11 games this season. Warren has 25+ Rush Yards in 5 straight (40+ in all 5).
Warren started the season banged up, but he appears fully healthy. Heās the more explosive back, but they still love Najee Harris.
In a big divisional game, I expect this one to be tight and the Steelers to lean on the ground game, thatās their offense gameplan every week.
The Bengals Rush Defense has been better since the start of the season, but theyāve still faced some lackluster rushing units like the Browns and Raiders.
We saw Dobbins and Edwards cash this similar parlay in their last game. I think it hits once again.
0.5u - CJ Stroud (HOU) UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-120, FanDuel)
Like this interception UNDER. It will be sweaty, but I like it. Sticking to 0.5u here though just cause it is an INT Prop.
This season, Stroud has 9 Interceptions. Heās u0.5 INTs in 6 of 12 games, however, he has thrown a pick in 3 straight.
Stroud has faced the Lions, Cowboys and Titans. Some solid Secondaries in that list. Now, he will face the Jaguars.
In 3 career matchups vs. JAX, Stroud has yet to throw an interception (6 pass TDs, 106 pass attempts).
That isnāt uncommon. The Jaguars havenāt had many interceptions this season.
Only 3 QBs have thrown Interceptions vs. JAX this year: Darnold, Love and Williams. The other 9 QBs went UNDER.
Iāll take my chances here with Stroud not throwing one for a 4th straight game and taking care of the football.
Final Note: Jaguars are 2nd worst in pressure rate, lowest in blitz %. Stroud should have all day and not be forced to throw.
0.5u - Jake Elliott (PHI) OVER 6.5 Kicking Points (-115, FanDuel)
This is a little different from a Field Goal Prop. Each Field Goal Made counts as 3 Points, an XP is 1 Point. So, this could cash with 4 extra points and 1 field goal, 2 field goals, 1 extra point or 3+ field goals.
I like all different outcomes.
Elliottās last 5 games: 13, 4, 10, 8 and 13 Kicking Points. Heās attempted 3, 2, 2, 4 and 3 FGs during that time span.
This matchup vs. the Ravens is a solid one.
7 of 12 Kickers to face Baltimore have had 7+ Kicking Points. Of the 5 misses, 3 of them missed a Field Goal which wouldāve taken them o6.5.
Elliott isnāt having the best year, 77%, but heās coming off a 3-3 week. I like him to keep that rolling.
Baltimore is a league average Red Zone Defense, but theyāve been better recently, holding Pittsburgh to Field Goals, the Chargers to 3.
The Eagles rely heavily on running the football in the RedZone. I could see them struggling in this spot to punch it in. Settle for Field Goals and trust their defense can get stops instead of going for it.
