Hello all! Itās that time of the year! NBA Season is back. Youāll find todayās plays at the bottom. I encourage you to read this long intro though as it will tell you what to expect this season + my previous season records.
Typically, my goal is to get plays live at 8AM EST every day. These first few days are going to be a little unique (since lines are already live for every game), but starting on Friday, you can expect a post at 8AM EST every day, with some added plays throughout the day.
What Type of Plays Do I Do? I will be heavily focused on Player Props, but we are going to be doing more Spread/Total/Game Picks this year with the help of Logan. Likely 2 a day (both for 0.50u, starting tomorrow). I wanted to bring some diversity to the card. Obviously, if we start to struggle here, we will likely reduce the number of plays we do, but Iām confident over the whole season, we can turn in a very profitable record on game picks.
Below, youāll find my record the last 3 seasons. Every season is unique, but Iām locked in and ready to have my best season yet.
2022: +40.34 Units
2023: +56.02 Units
2024: +33.26 Units
Letās crush the 2024-25 season.
Season to Date: +0.00 Units
1 Final Notes
(1) I will be starting the season light on the units. No reason to force a ton of units immediately out the gate. Iāll likely go up to 1 Unit after each team has played 1 game.
The Picks:
0.50u - Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) OVER 21.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)
0.25u - KAT 25+ Points (+190, BetMGM)
0.50u - Josh Hart (NYK) OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-140, FanDuel)
0.25u - Hart 10+ Rebounds (+190, DraftKings)
0.50u - LeBron James (LAL) OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-113, FanDuel)
0.50u - Naz Reid (MIN) OVER 11.5 Points (-113, FanDuel)
Analysis:
0.50u - Karl-Anthony Towns (NYK) OVER 21.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)
0.25u - KAT 25+ Points (+190, BetMGM)
Playable to -120.
If you paid attention to my NBA Futures, youād already know Iām a big fan of KAT (as I have him to average 22 and 24 PPG). I really like this spot.
Last season with Minnesota, KAT averaged 21.8 PPG. He attempted 15+ FGAs in 41 games, avg. 24.8 PPG, going OVER this line 63% of the time.
I expect 15+ FGAs from KAT on a consistent basis.
The Knicks donāt have a ton of elite scoring options.
In the last 3 games in the preseason, KAT scored 25, 16 & 22 Points on 20, 13 & 16 FGAs. He played 28, 29 and 30 minutes.
Tonight, I expect 35+ minutes. This is Tom Thibodeau we are talking about. He wonāt have to use a ton of energy defensively tonight guarding Al Horford.
Brunson will constantly be getting harassed by Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. KAT will be involved heavily on offense. Bridges and Anunoby arenāt high volume shooters or scorers. This Knicks team needs KAT to be a scorer.
With Achiuwa and Robinson injured too, they will need his size anyways. KAT starts his time with the Knicks with a big bang.
0.50u - Josh Hart (NYK) OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-140, FanDuel)
0.25u - Hart 10+ Rebounds (+190, DraftKings)
FYI: You get better value taking the 8+ Rebounds than the OVER 7.5 (-146). I like the Ladder to 10+.
I almost made this a full unit play, but Iāll wait on those.
We all know Hart is a huge hustle guy. I donāt expect anything different from him tonight.
The Knicks Rotation will be: Brunson, Bridges, Hart, Anunoby, KAT, McBride and Payne. Tyler Kolek and Jericho Sims might see a few minutes.
Of that list there arenāt many good rebounders. Brunson, Bridges and Anunoby are not known for being aggressive rebounders. KAT will get his. Payne and McBride are undersized.
I like Hart to be aggressive going for them.
Last year when Hart saw 30+ minutes vs. BOS, he recorded 8, 9 and 16 Rebounds.
He will avoid defending Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatumā¦so he will be left with Jrue/Derrick White. Those 2 will get their volume, but they are going to stretch the floor.
Hart will be crashing the boards, defensively, but also offensively where I donāt see him being used too frequently.
Last year in 10 games with OG Anunoby & 30+ minutes, Hart had 10+ Rebounds in 6 of 10 games.
That was having to guard the 2nd best player too of the opposing team. That will now be Bridges responsibility. I like a little ladder here.
0.50u - LeBron James (LAL) OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-113, FanDuel)
Playable to -130.
I like the King on the Boards tonight.
Last season, LeBron avg. 7.3 RPG. He was OVER in 41 of 71 games (58%). His last 3 vs. MIN w/ Gobert: 7, 10 and 3 Rebounds.
I like this matchup for him as heās likely defending Jaden McDaniels. Jaden is a very low usage guy. Heās going to be used to space the floor weakside of the ball handler.
So, LeBron should be left weakside on a lot of shots.
Anthony Davis will lead the Lakers in Rebounding, but he will also be responsible for boxing out Rudy Gobert, who will be crashing the glass.
Under new Head Coach JJ Redick, my guess is the Lakers want to play fast and shoot more 3ās. To me, itās easiest to play fast if your best player is grabbing rebounds and pushing the pace trying to find shooters.
LeBron shouldnāt be asked to guard the best players that will shoot. I also donāt mind targeting rebounding props early in the season as the players shots likely are rusty.
0.50u - Naz Reid (MIN) OVER 11.5 Points (-113, FanDuel)
Playable to -130.
Naz Reid is ready to go. Off the injury report. I expect big things from him this season.
Last season, Naz Reid avg. 13.5 PPG in 24.2 MPG.
In games that he played between 20-30 MPG, he avg 12.8 PPG, going OVER this line 58% of the time.
I shouldnāt need to tell you this but KAT is no longer on the team, nor is Kyle Anderson, someone who played meaningful minutes off the bench.
While Julius Randle is now in town, I donāt see the Timberwolves Coaching Staff using him as a Center, like they did with KAT.
Every Minute Rudy Gobert is off the floor, Naz Reid should be on it. I also believe there will be plenty of overlap minutes with Rudy & Naz playing together.
Naz Reidās L6 vs. LAL: 23, 15, 9, 21, 25 & 31 Points.
I love Reidās matchup against Jaxson Hayes, the Lakers backup Center. I donāt mind it against AD either who plays drop coverage and likely leaves Naz open for some 3 Point Opportunities.