TheParlayCafe

Happy Friday Everyone. The amount of bad luck is pretty comical at this point.. Our play of the day yesterday had 3 of the 4 legs soar past their ACTUAL lines. But an hour after sending out the parlay, it out of nowhere comes out that Damian Lillard is actually going to play. That was just about the worst news when we had Middleton for 4+ Assists and we obviously would never take that with Lillard in. The odds instantly shifted against our favor and we knew it’d be an uphill battle. But then he actually gets 2 assists in the first 5 minutes of the game, so things were looking good. Then he got to 3 but had it taken off cause of a stat correction. Then he picks up a 5th foul early in the 4th, and then a blowout had him sit with half of the 4th quarter left. He ends the game with 3 assists, to leave us hooked again. Bottom line, basically every single thing that could’ve gone wrong on that leg, did in fact go wrong. Although it absolutely sucks, the luck will turn our way in a major way and we know that. Hopefully starting with tonight.

We’re going to roll with a 3 leg +100 for game 6 of the Mavericks/Clippers game. We actually dove back into the numbers for PJ Washington, who sold our last two plays for this series, and we’re realizing it actually makes way more sense to fade him for a higher amount of rebounds, so you’re going to see us use our first ever under in one of our parlays. We wanted to include some legs from the Magic/Cavs game, but there’s a major question mark as to whether Jarrett Allen plays. We really loved his over 20.5 Points + Rebounds if he does. If we hit todays play, we’ll send $50 to two different people in the discord. Let’s see the luck turn our way tonight ☕️

Parlay #1 (Video/Ladder): 3 Legs, +100

Paul George (Clippers) Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists
Kyrie Irving (Mavericks) Over 18.5 Points
PJ Washington (Mavericks) UNDER 8.5 Rebounds

1st Leg: Paul George (Clippers) Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists
-Hit in 22 of last 24 Playoff Games
-19 of last 21 against Mavericks
-14 & 15 in last two games of this series
-No Kawhi Leonard, season on the line, PG should be heavily involved

2nd Leg: Kyrie Irving (Mavericks) Over 18.5 Points
-23 of last 24 at home (with 21+ Points in all 23)
-Averaged 25.7 this season
-Hit in 9 of last 10… Coming off Game 5 where he only scored 14… but was also a blowout where he didn’t realize have to be aggressive

3rd Leg: PJ Washington (Mavericks) Under 8.5 Rebounds
-31/34 since joining the Mavericks
-Has gone under in all 5 games of this series with 5,4 & 5 in the last 3
-Hit this under in all 12 career matchups against Clippers
-Already a bunch of rebounds on this squad when you have Luka, Gafford and now even Derrick Lively is back on the squad

What’s going on Café. Why do we continue to go with PJ Washington? I’d say one of our themes and lessons of the season is too often going back to our “favorite” players even after they’ve sold for us. They’ll win a few in a row, and even though there’s a clear indication he’s been seeing less production, we go back, when we obviously should just go to one of the much better options out there. He had a basket in the first couple minutes of the game yesterday, then proceeded after that to shoot 0/6 (0/4 from three), and 0-2 from the free throw line. Grabs 5 boards, so he ends with 7 of the 13 Points+Rebounds we needed. The annoying thing is if we’d just stuck with him for the 4+ Rebounds that we’d been taking throughout the series, which was at the same odds, he would’ve hit. Just don’t know what to say. Between all of the getting hooked, or first half injuries, or absolutely abysmal shooting nights, it does certainly feel like we can’t catch a break. I’ll say the one thing that has us still feeling fine is that these plays are literally as close as possible when we lose. We just have to stop making mistakes, and we know that we will.

Todays parlay has 4 legs that have all hit in every game of their respective series. We’re not going to post a video today, just locking in on making sure the play itself is something we love. As a Knicks fan, definitely hoping for them to get it done tonight, but what I’d really love is to see this play hit with ease. You’re going to see us continue to experiment a lot with the combo lines throughout the rest of the season so we can add that to The Parlay Café arsenal. We also may start mixing in some unders, which we’re yet to ever do. If this play hits, we’ll send $50 to two different random people in the discord, let’s see it happen ☕️

NBA Play of the Day (Have all hit in every game of these series, No Video): 4 Legs, -102

Khris Middleton (Bucks) 4+ Assists
Brook Lopez (Bucks) Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds
Joel Embiid (76ers) 8+ Rebounds
Josh Hart (Knicks) Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

1st Leg: Khris Middleton (Bucks) 4+ Assists
-28 Straight Playoff Games
-18 Straight against the Pacers
-Probably no Lillard or Giannis, he will have to make things happen

2nd Leg: Brook Lopez (Bucks) Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds
-12 Straight (Hit in all 5 of this series obviously)
-Averaged 17.7 this season (and that’s with Giannis & Lillard out there)
-No Lillard or Giannis, we like Lopez to continue with a larger role in this offense. Also an elimination game for the Bucks. So we like him to be out there a lot
-20 of last 23 against Pacers

3rd Leg: Joel Embiid (76ers) 8+ Rebounds
-Has hit in all 5 of this series
-Has hit in all 10 career elimination games in his career (with 10+ in 9 of them)
-Coming off the last game where he hit this in the first half and had 16 in the game
-Averaged 11 this season
-Has hit this in 18 of last 19 against Knicks (11 Straight)
-Averaged 11 this season
-24/26 this season at home (with 10+ in 22 of those)

4th Leg: Josh Hart (Knicks) Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
-Hit in all 5 of this series with 37,39,32,26 & 31
-We even saw him hit this on an 0-7 shooting night because he was able to grab 17 rebounds
-Very realistic chance Josh Hart will play this entire game, and this is the definition of a guy that hustles. He could have a great offensive night and get us 15-20 points which should make this easy. But he’s also very capable of getting 20 Rebounds + Assists alone which would make this easy as well.
-We also think the 76ers will need to throw everything they have at stopping Brunson which should force other guys like Hart to make some plays