TheParlayPirates

Alright, so I placed this just before the news broke about McCaffrey being out. Since then lines moved to Deebo rushing yards at 24.5.

Obviously I liked it at 14.5 cause I figured if McCaffrey was banged up Deebo might get some RB work. He still should considering Elijah Mitchell is out as well so Jordan Mason is their starting RB. Make your best judgement there if you want to still tail or leave this one since the line moved. Deebo should carry the ball a decent bit on the ground either way and I have to imagine 25 yards may still be in play, it’s just 10 more yards after all and he may be the main option with CMC out.

I also could see Rodgers look to his old friend and old WR1 Allen Lazard a few times tonight. Lazard is the WR3 on this team but Mike Williams will likely be on a snap count and have a lighter workload today. Lazard should compliment Wilson well while the 49er defense focuses on Garrett Wilson.

(McCaffrey news is great for our Jets -4.5 line)

Week 1 MNF Plays
🏈 Jets +4.5 (-115)
🏈Aaron Rodgers over 33.5 pass attempts (-114)

Reasoning:
🏈 Jets +4.5 (-115)
To start off, teams that lost the super bowl are 4-19 against the spread in week 1 the following year over the last 23 seasons.

Looking to this game specifically, there are some serious questions about how prepared the 49ers are coming into this game. Aiyuk, McCaffrey, and Trent Williams have all effectively missed all of camp. That makes you wonder will the timing be just a click off today between the 49ers offense. I also wonder if the 49ers are extra careful with McCaffrey this early in the season as to not make his calf injury worse, I could see him taking a lighter workload tonight. On top of that, not a lot of room for error going against a Jets defense that was graded the best in the league last year, and that is elite in pass coverage.

On the other side, the question lies with how rusty will Aaron Rodgers look after missing an entire season. He is obviously getting old, but before his injury he was still playing at an elite level. The Jets offense is actually fairly dynamic with Hall and Wilson, and if Rodgers can distribute the ball today, I think this game stays rather close and will take the points with New York thanks to their defense.

🏈Aaron Rodgers over 33.5 pass attempts (-114)
Jets quarterbacks threw for over this number is most games last year, sometimes getting well up into the 40s in terms of attempts. That was with QBs like Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian. One thing we know about good quarterbacks as they get old is they love to dink and dunk the ball down the field with short passes underneath (ex. Brady in Tampa Bay). Especially in this game I could see the Jets look to get Rodgers in a rhythm early with some easy completions. I look for the Jets to sustain some long drives with Rodgers picking his way down the field that drive his pass total up, and hopefully the Jets defense is able to get the ball back for the offense.