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What to expect

Plays per day 10+
Written analysis Moderate
Specialties Projection Models, Simulation Sheets

Recent plays

(more than 7 days old)

Wind n' Rain

BallparkPal Published 1 week ago

Happy Masters Thursday to all who celebrate!

Two steps forward, one step back on the weather front, with three of our seven games having rain in the forecast and five having some solid wind on tap. If both games end up being played, PIT @ PHI is looking at somewhere around 15-20mph blowing out to left-center, while MIN @ DET is in the low teens, but right into the batters’ faces.

With that headwind in a pitchers’ park and a couple studs on the mound in Lopez and Skubal, that MIN/DET total is at 6.5 in our sims, one of the lowest we’ve seen this season and right around where the books are generally sitting.

It’s a good chance for a reminder that our Park Factors are the combined effect of both stadium and weather, with all the percentages and raw numbers on the sheet relative to the season-long MLB averages.

Also of note today is that we’re far enough into the year now that we’ve started populating the Last 15 Days section of our Hottest/Coldest Players sheets. Players there are sorted by Runs Created, along with expected home runs and expected hits.

The numbers on those two graphics are more straightforward than they look: 2.5x hits for a hitter means they’re averaging 2.5 times more hits-per-plate-appearance than they were in the prior 30 days, while 0.3x hits for a pitcher means they’re allowing 30% of the total hits-per-plate-appearance (70% fewer) vs the prior 30 days.

The most up-to-date information from the BP sims can always be found at BallparkPal dot com, which will update as soon as possible when information changes and as lineups lock in. As a reminder, your subscription to this Research Feed does NOT include full access to the website, which requires its own unique subscription.

Complete summaries, details and explanations for ALL of the graphics provided as part of the BP Research Feed are available at this link.

Full insight into the methodology and techniques used in the Ballpark Pal model can also be found right here.

If you have any questions for us, we can be reached by DM on Twitter/X via @BallparkPal or by email at support at ballparkpal dot com.

Thank you again for subscribing!

1_StadiumReport.png
2_StartingPitcherPhysics.png
3_StartingPitcherOutcomes.png
4_StartingPitcherProjections.png
5_HomeRunPlayers.png
6_HomeRunGeneral.png
7_BatterVsPitcherMatchups.png
8_GameSimulationsSides.png
9_GameSimulationsTotals.png
10_DailyFantasy.png
11_MostLikely.png
12_OutlierOdds.png
13_Hot.png
14_Cold.png
15_GoodLuck.png
16_BadLuck.png
17_BullpenRankings.png
18_BattingLineupRankings.png
19_RotationRankings.png
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Everybody Loves a Promotion

BallparkPal Published 1 week, 1 day ago

Good Wednesday morning to everybody!

Not a lot out of the ordinary on the sheets today, with the exception of some possible rain in Cincinnati (vs. Milwaukee) and St. Louis (vs. Philadelphia), so keep an eye on those as the day goes on.

There should be some prominent Major League debuts today, so it’s a good chance for us to talk through how the BP model treats new arrivals. Spencer Arrighetti is is scheduled to start on the mound for the Astros in his first MLB action, while Jackson Holliday - the #1 prospect in baseball - is reportedly joining the Orioles for the rest of their series in Boston.

Our model doesn’t use data from the minor leagues for a variety of reasons, so we generally treat most call-ups roughly the same - as a sort of placeholder ‘new player’ - for a bit, but the model will also quickly adapt to their skills to dial in the accuracy.

Every once in a while, we’ll have a very comparable established player for a minor league call-up and we can manually insert a good equivalent in their early games, but we always want to be sure on those. Don’t worry - if Arrighetti or Holliday tears it up in their first few appearances, Ballpark Pal will be on top of it in short order.

The most up-to-date information from the BP sims can always be found at BallparkPal dot com, which will update as soon as possible when information changes and as lineups lock in. As a reminder, your subscription to this Research Feed does NOT include full access to the website, which requires its own unique subscription.

Complete summaries, details and explanations for ALL of the graphics provided as part of the BP Research Feed are available at this link.

Full insight into the methodology and techniques used in the Ballpark Pal model can also be found right here.

If you have any questions for us, we can be reached by DM on Twitter/X via @BallparkPal or by email at support at ballparkpal dot com.

Thank you again for subscribing!

1_StadiumReport.png
2_StartingPitcherPhysics.png
3_StartingPitcherOutcomes.png
4_StartingPitcherProjections.png
5_HomeRunPlayers.png
6_HomeRunGeneral.png
7_BatterVsPitcherMatchups.png
8_GameSimulationsSides.png
9_GameSimulationsTotals.png
10_DailyFantasy.png
11_MostLikely.png
12_OutlierOdds.png
13_Hot.png
14_Cold.png
15_GoodLuck.png
16_BadLuck.png
17_BullpenRankings.png
18_BattingLineupRankings.png
19_RotationRankings.png
20_TeamRankings.png
21_BatterRankings.png
22_StartingPitcherRankings.png
23_RelieverRankings.png

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About me

Ballpark Pal is an MLB research platform that produces in-depth projections for every game. Trusted by 45,000 weekly users in 2023, it stands as a premier source for those seeking data-driven insights into each day’s slate of games. This feed delivers 20+ reports each morning covering park factors, pitching previews, home run projections, simulation results, outlier odds, and much more.

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Ballpark Pal tracks and publishes the accuracy of its sim results in detail: Ballpark Pal Accuracy

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