BallparkPal

Ballpark Pal projections are generated through a system of models that you can read about at www.ballparkpal.com/Methods.html. The approach focuses on separating player skills from external factors such as stadium variation, weather, and batted ball luck. Mechanically, the projections come from a proprietary game simulator, which pre-executes each game thousands of times.

Game simulations are detailed processes that mimic real baseball games as closely as possible. Each game is simulated thousands of times. In each simulation, the game unfolds play by play, with outcomes determined by probability models. At the end, we aggregate the outcomes to understand the range of possible results for the game. The advantage of this approach is that it predicts every aspect of the game while naturally accounting for unmodeled factors and hidden nuances. You can read about the process in more detail here.

DFS projections are averages from the sim results and are based on the unique scoring system that each platform uses.

Weather data is sourced from WeatherStack.

The BP Research Feed only pushes these sheets once per day - each morning, as close to 9:00am ET as we can get.

If there is a special situation - an error on our part or something significant that changes a LOT of sims - we may push an update through this feed, but most minor alterations will be found on X/Twitter at @BallparkPal.

The most up-to-date information from the BP sims can always be found at BallparkPal dot com, which will update as soon as possible when information changes and as lineups lock in.

Park effects for individual games are based on the small handful of plays that are susceptible to their environment. Most outcomes occur regardless of the park and conditions. For example, a 450-foot fly ball is a home run in every stadium, while a game with few fly balls won't be helped or hurt much by strong wind. With some exceptions, park factors are typically secondary effects that shouldn't be thought of as a primary driver of the game's outcome. They show up over time but may not be visible in the results of individual games.

The Ballpark Pal website subscription and the BP Research Feed, hosted by DubClub, are two separate products that each require their own unique subscription.

The website provides all the data produced by the Ballpark Pal model, as well as tools like the Matchup Machine, Outlier Odds, Parlay Calculator, Player Props 2.0 and a lot more.

The Research Feed is the only place to receive the daily curated reports such as the Home Run Reports, Park Factors, Pitching Previews and a ton more - more than 20 reports total - in your inbox every morning.

There are definitely overlaps between the two.

You can find large amounts of what the Research Feed provides with your website subscription. The difference is that the Feed curates it and organizes it easily, then delivers it straight into your inbox, while you'll have to track it all down on the website.

There's also a LOT more data and tools on the website than on the Feed and it updates throughout the day, while the Feed is only what we have each morning.

On the other hand, there is a lot of info on the Feed (rankings, luck ratings, etc) that can't be found on the website and it’s all presented in one clean place.

We work hard to make sure each subscription has unique value, so it's just whichever our subscribers prefer!

We do not make recommendations for specific bets or plays.

We are simply a research platform where people can find helpful data and collect as much accurate information as possible to inform whatever they would like to do.

We’re working on ways to easily show you what every single piece of information on the BP Research Feed means - in the meantime, basic overviews and icon keys for the graphics can be found at our website at www.ballparkpal.com/ResearchFeed.html.

If you’re still wondering about something, feel free to send us a note on the Ballpark Pal support portal or shoot us a DM on Twitter at @BallparkPal - be as descriptive as possible and we’ll be happy to help you out!

If you are still unable to access the subscription you paid for (make sure it isn’t the other one first), please send us a note using the Ballpark Pal support portal (https://www.ballparkpal.com/Support.php).

Please include:
- which product you paid for and can’t access
- the email address you used to register on that product

Those two things will make it much easier for us to help and make sure you can get back connected much quicker!