JohnBollman

Cardinals Yankees Over 9
Will Warren is getting the start for the Yankees today and he has been pretty bad in his first four starts. The only decent start he made was when he allowed two runs in 5 IP but that was against the White Sox. He has allowed 17 runs in 12.2 IP in his other three starts combined and it’s not like those were great offenses either with starts against the Angels, Rockies and Phillies. Kyle Gibson had been pretty consistent all season long but he has struggled a lot more lately. He has a 5.54 ERA in his last 7 starts and he has a 6.91 ERA in August. I also think this is just a terrible matchup for him because he struggles with walks and home runs and that’s what the Yankees do. The Cardinals aren’t hitting righties well right now but I don’t think that will matter with Warren starting and the Yankees are ranked 2nd in wOBA against righties since the deadline. Both these bullpens have been about average since the deadline too.

Tigers ML -142 vs. Red Sox
The Tigers made a great comeback yesterday to tie the game and ended up losing in extra innings but they have their ace going today. Tarik Skubal has been great all season long going 15-4 with a 2.58 ERA. Nick Pivetta is 1-3 with a 5.89 ERA in his last 7 starts and he has been struggling with walks and home runs for a while now allowing 2 home runs in 5 straight games. The Tigers have been crushing righties with all their left handed hitters healthy again and the Red Sox have been much worse against lefties ranked 18th in wOBA since the deadline. The Tigers bullpen is ranked 6th in that time while the Red Sox are ranked 29th. The Tigers are also 16-11 since the deadline while the Red Sox are 13-14.

Blue Jays ML +130 vs. Twins
Zebby Matthews is making his fourth career start and he has been good in his first three, he just hasn’t gone more than 5 innings. Jose Berrios has been pitching really well lately going 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA and he is facing his old team today. He has 4 straight 7 inning quality starts. Both teams have been hitting righties pretty well but the Blue Jays bullpen has been a bit better. The Blue Jays are 15-12 since the deadline while the Twins are 14-13.

Phillies ML -158 vs. Braves
Max Fried has really struggled going 1-4 with a 5.02 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has faced the Phillies three times allowing 3 runs in 0.2 IP, 5 runs in 6 IP, and most recently 2 runs in 7 IP. However, the Phillies have been the best team in the league against lefties since the deadline while the Braves aren’t hitting righties nearly as well, ranked 14th in the league. Zack Wheeler has been great all season long going 12-6 with a 2.74 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 1.97 ERA in August with five straight quality starts. He had quality starts against the Braves both times he has faced them. The Phillies bullpen has been much better than the Braves since the deadline and the Phillies have been much better at home lately.

Dodgers Diamondbacks Over 9
The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks today in the second game of this rivalry series between teams that have been red hot since the All Star break. The Dodgers won the first game of this series after Clayton Kershaw was removed from the game in the second inning with an injury. They had to run through their bullpen but they were able to sneak out a 10-9 victory in a shootout. The Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in the playoffs last season so there is no love lost between these two teams. They have split the season series so far with each team winning five games so this is definitely a budding rivalry with both these teams being good again. The Dodgers currently have a five game lead over both the Diamondbacks and the Padres in the NL West. They have won three games in a row and eight of their last 10 games overall. They are 81-54 on the season and they are a solid 36-30 on the road. They are also 46-36 against teams over .500 this season. The Diamondbacks are 76-59 on the season and they are currently in the Wild Card spot with a five game lead over the Mets. They have won seven of their last 10 games but they have lost their last two games. They are 38-29 at home and they are just 39-39 against teams over .500.

Merrill Kelly is making just his seventh start of the season due to an injury very early in the season. He was injured on April 15th and he has made three starts now since returning from the IL. He allowed two runs in five innings in his first start, he allowed six runs in five innings in his second start, and he allowed four runs in six innings in his most recent start since returning from the IL. He has a 6.75 ERA in August in those three games and he had multiple walks in each of those three games. So he hasn’t been pitching his best and he is still trying to find it after his injury. He has a very tough matchup with the Dodgers lineup today too and he has not faced them yet this season. Gavin Stone struggled a bit right after the trade deadline but he turned it on in August. He is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA in August and he has allowed just one run and five hits in his last two starts covering 14 innings. However, he faced the Mariners and Rays at home. He has faced the Diamondbacks two times already this season and he allowed four runs in six innings pitched and four runs in three innings pitched.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have both been hitting very well lately as evidenced by their 10-9 game yesterday. The Diamondbacks have the highest wOBA in the league against righties since the trade deadline while the Dodgers have the 8th highest wOBA against righties in that time. Both bullpens have also been pitching very well as the Dodgers bullpen is ranked 3rd in bullpen ERA since the trade deadline while the Diamondbacks are ranked 9th. However, these two teams are very familiar with each other’s bullpens by now and they know how they are going to get pitched. Both bullpens are also very worked after the starters on both sides had to come out early yesterday. The Diamondbacks should have everyone available still but the Dodgers will be without Anthony Banda and Joe Kelly for sure. Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson have both pitched two days in a row so they will both likely be unavailable as well. Alex Vesia, Ryan Brasier, and Michael Kopech have all pitched three of the last four days and should be available, but likely won’t be as effective. Evan Phillips is their only other option and he has pitched two of the last three days. Considering how hot these offenses are and how worked these bullpens are, I think there will be plenty of runs in this game.

Brewers ML -115 vs. Reds
Frankie Montas is making his sixth start with the Brewers since being traded by the Reds and he has actually pitched pretty well with a 3.33 ERA since being traded. The Reds are starting Fernando Cruz today in a bullpen game. The Brewers have the 3rd highest wOBA against righties since the deadline while the Reds are ranked just 17th. The Brewers bullpen has also been much better ranked 10th to the Reds ranked 25th. The Brewers are 18-9 since the deadline while the Reds are 12-16 and 5-9 at home. The Brewers are 8-2 against the Reds this season as well.

Athletics ML +142 vs. Rangers
Joey Estes has been pitching very well for a while now not allowing more than 3 runs in 8 straight starts. He has not faced the Rangers this season. Cody Bradford has actually been dominating with a 3.25 ERA in August and he didn’t allow an earned run in 6.2 IP against the Athletics earlier this season. The As haven’t been hitting lefties as well but it’s not like the Rangers are hitting righties well right now. The As are 14-11 since the deadline and 7-3 on the road while the Rangers are 11-15 and 5-9 at home. I think there is plenty of value here.

Padres ML +110 vs. Rays
Randy Vasquez has been pitching really well lately, he had just one blowup start that makes his numbers look bad. Shane Baz has been pitching very well since being reinserted into the rotation. The Rays have had the best bullpen in the league since the deadline but the Padres are right behind them ranked 7th. Yandy Diaz left yesterday’s game early and will likely be out today. The Padres are 18-9 since the deadline and 9-5 on the road while the Rays are 11-15 and 4-6 at home.

Cardinals Yankees Over 9
Will Warren is getting the start for the Yankees today and he has been pretty bad in his first four starts. The only decent start he made was when he allowed two runs in 5 IP but that was against the White Sox. He has allowed 17 runs in 12.2 IP in his other three starts combined and it’s not like those were great offenses either with starts against the Angels, Rockies and Phillies. Kyle Gibson had been pretty consistent all season long but he has struggled a lot more lately. He has a 5.54 ERA in his last 7 starts and he has a 6.91 ERA in August. I also think this is just a terrible matchup for him because he struggles with walks and home runs and that’s what the Yankees do. The Cardinals aren’t hitting righties well right now but I don’t think that will matter with Warren starting and the Yankees are ranked 2nd in wOBA against righties since the deadline. Both these bullpens have been about average since the deadline too.

Tigers ML -142 vs. Red Sox
The Tigers made a great comeback yesterday to tie the game and ended up losing in extra innings but they have their ace going today. Tarik Skubal has been great all season long going 15-4 with a 2.58 ERA. Nick Pivetta is 1-3 with a 5.89 ERA in his last 7 starts and he has been struggling with walks and home runs for a while now allowing 2 home runs in 5 straight games. The Tigers have been crushing righties with all their left handed hitters healthy again and the Red Sox have been much worse against lefties ranked 18th in wOBA since the deadline. The Tigers bullpen is ranked 6th in that time while the Red Sox are ranked 29th. The Tigers are also 16-11 since the deadline while the Red Sox are 13-14.

Blue Jays ML +130 vs. Twins
Zebby Matthews is making his fourth career start and he has been good in his first three, he just hasn’t gone more than 5 innings. Jose Berrios has been pitching really well lately going 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA and he is facing his old team today. He has 4 straight 7 inning quality starts. Both teams have been hitting righties pretty well but the Blue Jays bullpen has been a bit better. The Blue Jays are 15-12 since the deadline while the Twins are 14-13.

Phillies ML -158 vs. Braves
Max Fried has really struggled going 1-4 with a 5.02 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has faced the Phillies three times allowing 3 runs in 0.2 IP, 5 runs in 6 IP, and most recently 2 runs in 7 IP. However, the Phillies have been the best team in the league against lefties since the deadline while the Braves aren’t hitting righties nearly as well, ranked 14th in the league. Zack Wheeler has been great all season long going 12-6 with a 2.74 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 1.97 ERA in August with five straight quality starts. He had quality starts against the Braves both times he has faced them. The Phillies bullpen has been much better than the Braves since the deadline and the Phillies have been much better at home lately.

Dodgers Diamondbacks Over 9
The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks today in the second game of this rivalry series between teams that have been red hot since the All Star break. The Dodgers won the first game of this series after Clayton Kershaw was removed from the game in the second inning with an injury. They had to run through their bullpen but they were able to sneak out a 10-9 victory in a shootout. The Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in the playoffs last season so there is no love lost between these two teams. They have split the season series so far with each team winning five games so this is definitely a budding rivalry with both these teams being good again. The Dodgers currently have a five game lead over both the Diamondbacks and the Padres in the NL West. They have won three games in a row and eight of their last 10 games overall. They are 81-54 on the season and they are a solid 36-30 on the road. They are also 46-36 against teams over .500 this season. The Diamondbacks are 76-59 on the season and they are currently in the Wild Card spot with a five game lead over the Mets. They have won seven of their last 10 games but they have lost their last two games. They are 38-29 at home and they are just 39-39 against teams over .500.

Merrill Kelly is making just his seventh start of the season due to an injury very early in the season. He was injured on April 15th and he has made three starts now since returning from the IL. He allowed two runs in five innings in his first start, he allowed six runs in five innings in his second start, and he allowed four runs in six innings in his most recent start since returning from the IL. He has a 6.75 ERA in August in those three games and he had multiple walks in each of those three games. So he hasn’t been pitching his best and he is still trying to find it after his injury. He has a very tough matchup with the Dodgers lineup today too and he has not faced them yet this season. Gavin Stone struggled a bit right after the trade deadline but he turned it on in August. He is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA in August and he has allowed just one run and five hits in his last two starts covering 14 innings. However, he faced the Mariners and Rays at home. He has faced the Diamondbacks two times already this season and he allowed four runs in six innings pitched and four runs in three innings pitched.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have both been hitting very well lately as evidenced by their 10-9 game yesterday. The Diamondbacks have the highest wOBA in the league against righties since the trade deadline while the Dodgers have the 8th highest wOBA against righties in that time. Both bullpens have also been pitching very well as the Dodgers bullpen is ranked 3rd in bullpen ERA since the trade deadline while the Diamondbacks are ranked 9th. However, these two teams are very familiar with each other’s bullpens by now and they know how they are going to get pitched. Both bullpens are also very worked after the starters on both sides had to come out early yesterday. The Diamondbacks should have everyone available still but the Dodgers will be without Anthony Banda and Joe Kelly for sure. Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson have both pitched two days in a row so they will both likely be unavailable as well. Alex Vesia, Ryan Brasier, and Michael Kopech have all pitched three of the last four days and should be available, but likely won’t be as effective. Evan Phillips is their only other option and he has pitched two of the last three days. Considering how hot these offenses are and how worked these bullpens are, I think there will be plenty of runs in this game.

Brewers ML -115 vs. Reds
Frankie Montas is making his sixth start with the Brewers since being traded by the Reds and he has actually pitched pretty well with a 3.33 ERA since being traded. The Reds are starting Fernando Cruz today in a bullpen game. The Brewers have the 3rd highest wOBA against righties since the deadline while the Reds are ranked just 17th. The Brewers bullpen has also been much better ranked 10th to the Reds ranked 25th. The Brewers are 18-9 since the deadline while the Reds are 12-16 and 5-9 at home. The Brewers are 8-2 against the Reds this season as well.

Athletics ML +142 vs. Rangers
Joey Estes has been pitching very well for a while now not allowing more than 3 runs in 8 straight starts. He has not faced the Rangers this season. Cody Bradford has actually been dominating with a 3.25 ERA in August and he didn’t allow an earned run in 6.2 IP against the Athletics earlier this season. The As haven’t been hitting lefties as well but it’s not like the Rangers are hitting righties well right now. The As are 14-11 since the deadline and 7-3 on the road while the Rangers are 11-15 and 5-9 at home. I think there is plenty of value here.

Padres ML +110 vs. Rays
Randy Vasquez has been pitching really well lately, he had just one blowup start that makes his numbers look bad. Shane Baz has been pitching very well since being reinserted into the rotation. The Rays have had the best bullpen in the league since the deadline but the Padres are right behind them ranked 7th. Yandy Diaz left yesterday’s game early and will likely be out today. The Padres are 18-9 since the deadline and 9-5 on the road while the Rays are 11-15 and 4-6 at home.