ParlaySafari

NFL

815pm Bears +4 +100 (2u)
vs Seahawks

Everyone been trying to cash on these Bears the last 8 weeks and I’ve avoided them week after week. This is the spot. In Primetime, short week, vs a team in a must win with the line moving toward SEA. Chalk galore yesterday, here’s the dog. Post week 15, home dogs of 5.5 or less vs teams off a loss are 24-7 ATS since 2018. Everyone knows Seattle is in a must win, and so do the books. Teams in week 16 or later in a must win spot to stay alive as a favorite of less than 11 are 55-132 ATS all time. This is the week.

CFB (12-4 ATS bowl record)

2pm Pitt / Toledo OVER 48.5 -110 (2u)

Pitt back to fully healthy basically without a starting QB. David Lynch gets the nod and this total dropped 3 points. 2 teams outside the top 177 in points allowed. Toledo 26th in yards per play. I expect them to score. This is a classic buy the bad news with the power 5 QB out vs smaller program. Pitt will still bully these guys at the line but Toledo will hang around. Points!

9pm Bowling Green / Arkansas St UNDER 53.5 -110 (2u)

Never seen a game scream over like this one, yet there’s buy back on this under. Arkansas St defense is so so so bad. They’ve given up over 450 yards on average this year. BG defense is awesome but they’ve gotten exploited on the ground game for big runs and Ark St has a two headed monster at RB. This total has been ticking up since this opened but now starting to get too high. I think Arkansas St hangs around here and steps up defensively somehow. This is my “makes no sense play but will for sure hit” winner of the night.

NFL

815pm Bears +4 +100 (2u)
vs Seahawks

Everyone been trying to cash on these Bears the last 8 weeks and I’ve avoided them week after week. This is the spot. In Primetime, short week, vs a team in a must win with the line moving toward SEA. Chalk galore yesterday, here’s the dog. Post week 15, home dogs of 5.5 or less vs teams off a loss are 24-7 ATS since 2018. Everyone knows Seattle is in a must win, and so do the books. Teams in week 16 or later in a must win spot to stay alive as a favorite of less than 11 are 55-132 ATS all time. This is the week.

CFB (12-4 ATS bowl record)

2pm Pitt / Toledo OVER 48.5 -110 (2u)

Pitt back to fully healthy basically without a starting QB. David Lynch gets the nod and this total dropped 3 points. 2 teams outside the top 177 in points allowed. Toledo 26th in yards per play. I expect them to score. This is a classic buy the bad news with the power 5 QB out vs smaller program. Pitt will still bully these guys at the line but Toledo will hang around. Points!

9pm Bowling Green / Arkansas St UNDER 53.5 -110 (2u)

Never seen a game scream over like this one, yet there’s buy back on this under. Arkansas St defense is so so so bad. They’ve given up over 450 yards on average this year. BG defense is awesome but they’ve gotten exploited on the ground game for big runs and Ark St has a two headed monster at RB. This total has been ticking up since this opened but now starting to get too high. I think Arkansas St hangs around here and steps up defensively somehow. This is my “makes no sense play but will for sure hit” winner of the night.