ProfessorSides

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What to expect

Plays per day 10+
Written analysis Moderate
Bankroll management 1 unit = 1.00% of bankroll
Specialties Projection Models, Simulation Sheets, +EV Value Plays

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(more than 7 days old)

Tue 4/30 MLB Parlay of the Day

ProfessorSides Published 1 week ago

Forgot to add this to the update post…

Phillies/Twins (+176)

If you’re playing them -1, I’d do this at half unit. Pretty solid payout here so no need to go too heavy.

Wed 5/1 MLB Projections

ProfessorSides Published 1 week ago

It’s gonna be May

(I had to)

Rays -144 (A grade: -130) at Brewers +144 (A grade: +168) Total: 7.7
Cardinals -100 (A grade: +112) at Tigers +100 (A grade: +113) Total: 9.1
Twins -209 (A grade: -190) at White Sox +209 (A grade: +261) Total: 9.8
Royals +130 (A grade: +150) at Blue Jays -130 (A grade: -117) Total: 8.4
Pirates -107 (A grade: +105) at Athletics +107 (A grade: +121) Total: 8.4
Braves -181 (A grade: -163) at Mariners +181 (A grade: +218) Total: 7.5
Phillies -161 (A grade: -146) at Angels +161 (A grade: +191) Total: 8.2
Reds +139 (A grade: +162) at Padres -139 (A grade: -125) Total: 7.8
Yankees +153 (A grade: +180) at Orioles -153 (A grade: -138) Total: 8.6
Rockies +148 (A grade: +173) at Marlins -148 (A grade: -133) Total: 8.2
Cubs +107 (A grade: +122) at Mets -107 (A grade: +105) Total: 7.3
Giants +157 (A grade: +185) at Red Sox -157 (A grade: -142) Total: 9
Nationals +169 (A grade: +202) at Rangers -169 (A grade: -153) Total: 9.4
Guardians +143 (A grade: +167) at Astros -143 (A grade: -129) Total: 9
Dodgers -122 (A grade: -109) at Diamondbacks +122 (A grade: +139) Total: 8.5

Screenshot 2024-04-30 at 10.54.45 AM.png

1:10pm ET: Rays at Brewers
- First pitch: 66 degrees, roof open
- Approx end: 67 degrees, roof open
- The park adjusts the runs by -6% and the weather adjusts it another -3%
- Rays (Offense rating: 103 (vs RHP: 97), RPs: 101 (top RPs: 96)) SP: RHP Zach Eflin (6 GS, 35.1 IP, 4.08 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 3.84 park neutral projection, Rating: 78)
- Brewers (Offense rating: 90 (vs RHP: 88), RPs: 106 (top RPs: 102)) SP: RHP Colin Rea (5 GS, 27.2 IP, 3.25 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.83 park neutral projection, Rating: 115)
- SideLine: Rays have a 59% win probability (-144) … B grade price: -139 or better… A grade price: -130 or better
- Rays -1.5 wins 45% of the time (+121) … B grade price: +126 … A grade price: +138
- Rays +1.5 wins 77% of the time (-332) … B grade price: -320 … A grade price: -298
- Rays win (pushes removed) the first five innings 57% of the time (-134) … B grade price: -126 … A grade price: -121
- Rays -0.5 wins 48% of the time (+108) … B grade price: +112 … A grade price: +122
- Rays +0.5 wins 64% of the time (-179) … B grade price: -173 … A grade price: -162
- SideLine: Brewers have a 41% win probability (+144) … B grade price: +151 or better… A grade price: +168 or better
- Brewers -1.5 wins 23% of the time (+332) … B grade price: +376 … A grade price: +500
- Brewers +1.5 wins 55% of the time (-121) … B grade price: -116 … A grade price: -108
- Brewers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 43% of the time (+134) … B grade price: +143 … A grade price: +155
- Brewers -0.5 wins 36% of the time (+179) … B grade price: +190 … A grade price: +216
- Brewers +0.5 wins 52% of the time (-108) … B grade price: -104 … A grade price: +104
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.7 (F5: 3.9)

1:10pm ET: Cardinals at Tigers
- First pitch: 74 degrees, wind across to LF at 16 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 77 degrees, wind across to LF at 18 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by -2% and the weather adjusts it another 2%
- Cardinals (Offense rating: 104 (vs RHP: 104), RPs: 83 (top RPs: 76)) SP: RHP Miles Mikolas (6 GS, 32.0 IP, 5.91 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 4.75 park neutral projection, Rating: 108)
- Tigers (Offense rating: 90 (vs RHP: 91), RPs: 99 (top RPs: 107)) SP: RHP Kenta Maeda (5 GS, 22.2 IP, 5.96 ERA, 6.73 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, 4.59 park neutral projection, Rating: 108)
- SideLine: Cardinals have a 50% win probability (-100) … B grade price: +104 or better… A grade price: +112 or better
- Cardinals -1.5 wins 38% of the time (+162) … B grade price: +171 … A grade price: +192
- Cardinals +1.5 wins 67% of the time (-203) … B grade price: -196 … A grade price: -184
- Cardinals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 47% of the time (+113) … B grade price: +120 … A grade price: +128
- Cardinals -0.5 wins 40% of the time (+153) … B grade price: +161 … A grade price: +180
- Cardinals +0.5 wins 56% of the time (-125) … B grade price: -120 … A grade price: -112
- SideLine: Tigers have a 50% win probability (+100) … B grade price: +104 or better… A grade price: +113 or better
- Tigers -1.5 wins 33% of the time (+203) … B grade price: +218 … A grade price: +252
- Tigers +1.5 wins 62% of the time (-162) … B grade price: -157 … A grade price: -146
- Tigers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 53% of the time (-113) … B grade price: -106 … A grade price: -101
- Tigers -0.5 wins 44% of the time (+125) … B grade price: +131 … A grade price: +143
- Tigers +0.5 wins 60% of the time (-153) … B grade price: -148 … A grade price: -138
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.1 (F5: 4.9)

2:10pm ET: Twins at White Sox
- First pitch: 73 degrees, wind out to CF at 15 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 75 degrees, wind out to CF at 11 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by 0% and the weather adjusts it another 7%
- Twins (Offense rating: 107 (vs RHP: 109), RPs: 82 (top RPs: 105)) SP: RHP Bailey Ober (5 GS, 25.2 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 4.18 park neutral projection, Rating: 91)
- White Sox (Offense rating: 74 (vs RHP: 74), RPs: 130 (top RPs: 141)) SP: RHP Chris Flexen (4 GS, 24.2 IP, 5.11 ERA, 5.43 FIP, 5.48 xFIP, 5.2 park neutral projection, Rating: 127)
- SideLine: Twins have a 68% win probability (-209) … B grade price: -202 or better… A grade price: -190 or better
- Twins -1.5 wins 57% of the time (-132) … B grade price: -127 … A grade price: -119
- Twins +1.5 wins 84% of the time (-539) … B grade price: -515 … A grade price: -473
- Twins win (pushes removed) the first five innings 62% of the time (-163) … B grade price: -153 … A grade price: -147
- Twins -0.5 wins 52% of the time (-108) … B grade price: -104 … A grade price: +103
- Twins +0.5 wins 68% of the time (-213) … B grade price: -206 … A grade price: -193
- SideLine: White Sox have a 32% win probability (+209) … B grade price: +225 or better… A grade price: +261 or better
- White Sox -1.5 wins 16% of the time (+539) … B grade price: +702 … A grade price: +1544
- White Sox +1.5 wins 43% of the time (+132) … B grade price: +138 … A grade price: +152
- White Sox win (pushes removed) the first five innings 38% of the time (+163) … B grade price: +173 … A grade price: +193
- White Sox -0.5 wins 32% of the time (+213) … B grade price: +229 … A grade price: +266
- White Sox +0.5 wins 48% of the time (+108) … B grade price: +113 … A grade price: +123
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.8 (F5: 5.2)

3:07pm ET: Royals at Blue Jays
- First pitch: 50 degrees, roof closed
- Approx end: 49 degrees, roof closed
- The park adjusts the runs by -4% and the weather adjusts it another 0%
- Royals (Offense rating: 87 (vs RHP: 88), RPs: 105 (top RPs: 108)) SP: RHP Seth Lugo (6 GS, 38.0 IP, 1.66 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 4.21 park neutral projection, Rating: 91)
- Blue Jays (Offense rating: 110 (vs RHP: 107), RPs: 99 (top RPs: 109)) SP: RHP Chris Bassitt (6 GS, 30.1 IP, 5.64 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, 4.47 park neutral projection, Rating: 99)
- SideLine: Royals have a 43% win probability (+130) … B grade price: +136 or better… A grade price: +150 or better
- Royals -1.5 wins 31% of the time (+224) … B grade price: +241 … A grade price: +284
- Royals +1.5 wins 61% of the time (-157) … B grade price: -152 … A grade price: -142
- Royals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 45% of the time (+120) … B grade price: +127 … A grade price: +137
- Royals -0.5 wins 38% of the time (+162) … B grade price: +171 … A grade price: +192
- Royals +0.5 wins 54% of the time (-118) … B grade price: -114 … A grade price: -106
- SideLine: Blue Jays have a 57% win probability (-130) … B grade price: -126 or better… A grade price: -117 or better
- Blue Jays -1.5 wins 39% of the time (+157) … B grade price: +166 … A grade price: +186
- Blue Jays +1.5 wins 69% of the time (-224) … B grade price: -216 … A grade price: -202
- Blue Jays win (pushes removed) the first five innings 55% of the time (-120) … B grade price: -113 … A grade price: -107
- Blue Jays -0.5 wins 46% of the time (+118) … B grade price: +124 … A grade price: +135
- Blue Jays +0.5 wins 62% of the time (-162) … B grade price: -156 … A grade price: -146
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.4 (F5: 4.3)

3:37pm ET: Pirates at Athletics
- First pitch: 69 degrees, wind across to RF at 12 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 69 degrees, wind out to RF at 13 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by -8% and the weather adjusts it another 3%
- Pirates (Offense rating: 97 (vs RHP: 95), RPs: 95 (top RPs: 99)) SP: RHP Quinn Priester (2 GS, 10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 5.96 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 4.48 park neutral projection, Rating: 104)
- Athletics (Offense rating: 86 (vs RHP: 89), RPs: 110 (top RPs: 99)) SP: RHP Ross Stripling (6 GS, 34.1 IP, 4.98 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 4.61 park neutral projection, Rating: 108)
- SideLine: Pirates have a 52% win probability (-107) … B grade price: -103 or better… A grade price: +105 or better
- Pirates -1.5 wins 39% of the time (+156) … B grade price: +165 … A grade price: +184
- Pirates +1.5 wins 69% of the time (-225) … B grade price: -217 … A grade price: -203
- Pirates win (pushes removed) the first five innings 50% of the time (+101) … B grade price: +107 … A grade price: +114
- Pirates -0.5 wins 42% of the time (+139) … B grade price: +146 … A grade price: +161
- Pirates +0.5 wins 58% of the time (-137) … B grade price: -132 … A grade price: -123
- SideLine: Athletics have a 48% win probability (+107) … B grade price: +112 or better… A grade price: +121 or better
- Athletics -1.5 wins 31% of the time (+225) … B grade price: +243 … A grade price: +285
- Athletics +1.5 wins 61% of the time (-156) … B grade price: -151 … A grade price: -141
- Athletics win (pushes removed) the first five innings 50% of the time (-101) … B grade price: +105 … A grade price: +112
- Athletics -0.5 wins 42% of the time (+137) … B grade price: +144 … A grade price: +159
- Athletics +0.5 wins 58% of the time (-139) … B grade price: -134 … A grade price: -125
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.4 (F5: 4.4)

3:40pm ET: Braves at Mariners
- First pitch: 52 degrees, wind out to RF at 7 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 54 degrees, wind out to RF at 8 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by -16% and the weather adjusts it another 0%
- Braves (Offense rating: 127 (vs RHP: 126), RPs: 64 (top RPs: 74)) SP: LHP Chris Sale (5 GS, 31.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.03 xFIP, 3.79 park neutral projection, Rating: 78)
- Mariners (Offense rating: 103 (vs LHP: 106), RPs: 103 (top RPs: 92)) SP: RHP Emerson Hancock (5 GS, 26.2 IP, 5.06 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 4.87 park neutral projection, Rating: 116)
- SideLine: Braves have a 64% win probability (-181) … B grade price: -175 or better… A grade price: -163 or better
- Braves -1.5 wins 50% of the time (-101) … B grade price: +103 … A grade price: +112
- Braves +1.5 wins 82% of the time (-460) … B grade price: -441 … A grade price: -408
- Braves win (pushes removed) the first five innings 60% of the time (-152) … B grade price: -143 … A grade price: -137
- Braves -0.5 wins 51% of the time (-103) … B grade price: +101 … A grade price: +110
- Braves +0.5 wins 67% of the time (-200) … B grade price: -193 … A grade price: -181
- SideLine: Mariners have a 36% win probability (+181) … B grade price: +192 or better… A grade price: +218 or better
- Mariners -1.5 wins 18% of the time (+460) … B grade price: +564 … A grade price: +956
- Mariners +1.5 wins 50% of the time (+101) … B grade price: +105 … A grade price: +114
- Mariners win (pushes removed) the first five innings 40% of the time (+152) … B grade price: +162 … A grade price: +178
- Mariners -0.5 wins 33% of the time (+200) … B grade price: +214 … A grade price: +246
- Mariners +0.5 wins 49% of the time (+103) … B grade price: +107 … A grade price: +116
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.5 (F5: 4)

4:07pm ET: Phillies at Angels
- First pitch: 68 degrees, wind out to RC at 9 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 68 degrees, wind out to RC at 9 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by 0% and the weather adjusts it another 0%
- Phillies (Offense rating: 94 (vs LHP: 96), RPs: 86 (top RPs: 78)) SP: RHP Zack Wheeler (6 GS, 37.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 2.79 xFIP, 3.47 park neutral projection, Rating: 63)
- Angels (Offense rating: 105 (vs RHP: 103), RPs: 140 (top RPs: 134)) SP: LHP Patrick Sandoval (6 GS, 27.0 IP, 6.33 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 4.1 xFIP, 4.44 park neutral projection, Rating: 100)
- SideLine: Phillies have a 62% win probability (-161) … B grade price: -156 or better… A grade price: -146 or better
- Phillies -1.5 wins 49% of the time (+105) … B grade price: +110 … A grade price: +119
- Phillies +1.5 wins 79% of the time (-380) … B grade price: -366 … A grade price: -340
- Phillies win (pushes removed) the first five innings 56% of the time (-129) … B grade price: -121 … A grade price: -116
- Phillies -0.5 wins 47% of the time (+111) … B grade price: +116 … A grade price: +127
- Phillies +0.5 wins 63% of the time (-172) … B grade price: -167 … A grade price: -156
- SideLine: Angels have a 38% win probability (+161) … B grade price: +170 or better… A grade price: +191 or better
- Angels -1.5 wins 21% of the time (+380) … B grade price: +443 … A grade price: +634
- Angels +1.5 wins 51% of the time (-105) … B grade price: -101 … A grade price: +107
- Angels win (pushes removed) the first five innings 44% of the time (+129) … B grade price: +137 … A grade price: +148
- Angels -0.5 wins 37% of the time (+172) … B grade price: +183 … A grade price: +206
- Angels +0.5 wins 53% of the time (-111) … B grade price: -107 … A grade price: +101
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.2 (F5: 4)

4:10pm ET: Reds at Padres
- First pitch: 63 degrees, wind out to RC at 9 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 62 degrees, wind out to RC at 8 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by -10% and the weather adjusts it another 0%
- Reds (Offense rating: 82 (vs RHP: 82), RPs: 112 (top RPs: 106)) SP: RHP Graham Ashcraft (5 GS, 28.2 IP, 4.4 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, 4.38 park neutral projection, Rating: 97)
- Padres (Offense rating: 105 (vs RHP: 104), RPs: 110 (top RPs: 104)) SP: RHP Joe Musgrove (7 GS, 35.0 IP, 6.94 ERA, 6.59 FIP, 4.97 xFIP, 4.49 park neutral projection, Rating: 101)
- SideLine: Reds have a 42% win probability (+139) … B grade price: +146 or better… A grade price: +162 or better
- Reds -1.5 wins 29% of the time (+247) … B grade price: +269 … A grade price: +323
- Reds +1.5 wins 60% of the time (-151) … B grade price: -146 … A grade price: -136
- Reds win (pushes removed) the first five innings 44% of the time (+128) … B grade price: +136 … A grade price: +147
- Reds -0.5 wins 37% of the time (+172) … B grade price: +182 … A grade price: +205
- Reds +0.5 wins 53% of the time (-112) … B grade price: -108 … A grade price: +100
- SideLine: Padres have a 58% win probability (-139) … B grade price: -134 or better… A grade price: -125 or better
- Padres -1.5 wins 40% of the time (+151) … B grade price: +159 … A grade price: +177
- Padres +1.5 wins 71% of the time (-247) … B grade price: -238 … A grade price: -223
- Padres win (pushes removed) the first five innings 56% of the time (-128) … B grade price: -121 … A grade price: -115
- Padres -0.5 wins 47% of the time (+112) … B grade price: +117 … A grade price: +127
- Padres +0.5 wins 63% of the time (-172) … B grade price: -166 … A grade price: -155
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.8 (F5: 4.1)

6:35pm ET: Yankees at Orioles
- First pitch: 80 degrees, wind across to RF at 7 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 73 degrees, wind out to RF at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by -4% and the weather adjusts it another 0%
- Yankees (Offense rating: 123 (vs RHP: 123), RPs: 105 (top RPs: 93)) SP: RHP Luis Gil (5 GS, 24.2 IP, 4.01 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 4.37 park neutral projection, Rating: 101)
- Orioles (Offense rating: 118 (vs RHP: 123), RPs: 96 (top RPs: 108)) SP: RHP Corbin Burnes (6 GS, 35.1 IP, 2.55 ERA, 3.7 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.72 park neutral projection, Rating: 72)
- SideLine: Yankees have a 40% win probability (+153) … B grade price: +161 or better… A grade price: +180 or better
- Yankees -1.5 wins 27% of the time (+267) … B grade price: +294 … A grade price: +361
- Yankees +1.5 wins 57% of the time (-133) … B grade price: -128 … A grade price: -120
- Yankees win (pushes removed) the first five innings 40% of the time (+152) … B grade price: +162 … A grade price: +178
- Yankees -0.5 wins 33% of the time (+200) … B grade price: +214 … A grade price: +247
- Yankees +0.5 wins 49% of the time (+103) … B grade price: +107 … A grade price: +116
- SideLine: Orioles have a 60% win probability (-153) … B grade price: -148 or better… A grade price: -138 or better
- Orioles -1.5 wins 43% of the time (+133) … B grade price: +140 … A grade price: +154
- Orioles +1.5 wins 73% of the time (-267) … B grade price: -258 … A grade price: -242
- Orioles win (pushes removed) the first five innings 60% of the time (-152) … B grade price: -143 … A grade price: -137
- Orioles -0.5 wins 51% of the time (-103) … B grade price: +101 … A grade price: +110
- Orioles +0.5 wins 67% of the time (-200) … B grade price: -193 … A grade price: -181
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.6 (F5: 4.4)

6:40pm ET: Rockies at Marlins
- First pitch: Dome
- Approx end: Dome
- The park adjusts the runs by -2% and the weather adjusts it another 0%
- Rockies (Offense rating: 68 (vs LHP: 75), RPs: 105 (top RPs: 110)) SP: RHP Dakota Hudson (5 GS, 24.2 IP, 6.57 ERA, 5.27 FIP, 5.05 xFIP, 4.83 park neutral projection, Rating: 115)
- Marlins (Offense rating: 76 (vs RHP: 78), RPs: 110 (top RPs: 100)) SP: LHP Braxton Garrett (Rating: 97)
- SideLine: Rockies have a 40% win probability (+148) … B grade price: +156 or better… A grade price: +173 or better
- Rockies -1.5 wins 28% of the time (+261) … B grade price: +286 … A grade price: +349
- Rockies +1.5 wins 58% of the time (-140) … B grade price: -135 … A grade price: -126
- Rockies win (pushes removed) the first five innings 41% of the time (+142) … B grade price: +151 … A grade price: +165
- Rockies -0.5 wins 35% of the time (+188) … B grade price: +201 … A grade price: +229
- Rockies +0.5 wins 51% of the time (-103) … B grade price: +101 … A grade price: +109
- SideLine: Marlins have a 60% win probability (-148) … B grade price: -143 or better… A grade price: -133 or better
- Marlins -1.5 wins 42% of the time (+140) … B grade price: +147 … A grade price: +162
- Marlins +1.5 wins 72% of the time (-261) … B grade price: -252 … A grade price: -236
- Marlins win (pushes removed) the first five innings 59% of the time (-142) … B grade price: -133 … A grade price: -128
- Marlins -0.5 wins 49% of the time (+103) … B grade price: +107 … A grade price: +116
- Marlins +0.5 wins 65% of the time (-188) … B grade price: -182 … A grade price: -170
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.2 (F5: 4.3)

7:10pm ET: Cubs at Mets
- First pitch: 54 degrees, wind out to LF at 9 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 51 degrees, wind across to LF at 8 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by -8% and the weather adjusts it another -5%
- Cubs (Offense rating: 96 (vs RHP: 96), RPs: 114 (top RPs: 116)) SP: LHP Shota Imanaga (5 GS, 27.2 IP, 0.98 ERA, 2.4 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, 3.97 park neutral projection, Rating: 83)
- Mets (Offense rating: 101 (vs LHP: 99), RPs: 91 (top RPs: 93)) SP: RHP Jose Butto (4 GS, 22.0 IP, 2.86 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.33 park neutral projection, Rating: 98)
- SideLine: Cubs have a 48% win probability (+107) … B grade price: +112 or better… A grade price: +122 or better
- Cubs -1.5 wins 35% of the time (+190) … B grade price: +202 … A grade price: +231
- Cubs +1.5 wins 67% of the time (-202) … B grade price: -195 … A grade price: -183
- Cubs win (pushes removed) the first five innings 50% of the time (-100) … B grade price: +106 … A grade price: +112
- Cubs -0.5 wins 42% of the time (+138) … B grade price: +145 … A grade price: +160
- Cubs +0.5 wins 58% of the time (-139) … B grade price: -134 … A grade price: -125
- SideLine: Mets have a 52% win probability (-107) … B grade price: -103 or better… A grade price: +105 or better
- Mets -1.5 wins 33% of the time (+202) … B grade price: +217 … A grade price: +250
- Mets +1.5 wins 65% of the time (-190) … B grade price: -183 … A grade price: -172
- Mets win (pushes removed) the first five innings 50% of the time (+100) … B grade price: +107 … A grade price: +113
- Mets -0.5 wins 42% of the time (+139) … B grade price: +146 … A grade price: +161
- Mets +0.5 wins 58% of the time (-138) … B grade price: -133 … A grade price: -124
- SideLine Projected Total: 7.3 (F5: 3.7)

7:10pm ET: Giants at Red Sox
- First pitch: 45 degrees, wind in from RC at 6 mph, 0% chance of rain
- Approx end: 45 degrees, wind in from RC at 5 mph, 0% chance of rain
- The park adjusts the runs by 16% and the weather adjusts it another -11%
- Giants (Offense rating: 105 (vs RHP: 106), RPs: 94 (top RPs: 86)) SP: RHP Daulton Jefferies (1 GS, 2.0 IP, 22.5 ERA, 15.16 FIP, 5.66 xFIP, 5.06 park neutral projection, Rating: 129)
- Red Sox (Offense rating: 96 (vs RHP: 97), RPs: 85 (top RPs: 92)) SP: RHP Kutter Crawford (6 GS, 33.1 IP, 1.35 ERA, 2.2 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 3.94 park neutral projection, Rating: 85)
- SideLine: Giants have a 39% win probability (+157) … B grade price: +166 or better… A grade price: +185 or better
- Giants -1.5 wins 27% of the time (+271) … B grade price: +299 … A grade price: +368
- Giants +1.5 wins 56% of the time (-127) … B grade price: -122 … A grade price: -114
- Giants win (pushes removed) the first five innings 38% of the time (+162) … B grade price: +173 … A grade price: +192
- Giants -0.5 wins 32% of the time (+212) … B grade price: +228 … A grade price: +265
- Giants +0.5 wins 48% of the time (+108) … B grade price: +113 … A grade price: +123
- SideLine: Red Sox have a 61% win probability (-157) … B grade price: -152 or better… A grade price: -142 or better
- Red Sox -1.5 wins 44% of the time (+127) … B grade price: +133 … A grade price: +146
- Red Sox +1.5 wins 73% of the time (-271) … B grade price: -262 … A grade price: -245
- Red Sox win (pushes removed) the first five innings 62% of the time (-162) … B grade price: -152 … A grade price: -146
- Red Sox -0.5 wins 52% of the time (-108) … B grade price: -104 … A grade price: +104
- Red Sox +0.5 wins 68% of the time (-212) … B grade price: -205 … A grade price: -192
- SideLine Projected Total: 9 (F5: 4.8)

8:05pm ET: Nationals at Rangers
- First pitch: 77 degrees, roof open
- Approx end: 75 degrees, roof open
- The park adjusts the runs by 6% and the weather adjusts it another 1%
- Nationals (Offense rating: 80 (vs LHP: 75), RPs: 111 (top RPs: 106)) SP: RHP Trevor Williams (5 GS, 26.2 IP, 2.7 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 4.1 xFIP, 4.55 park neutral projection, Rating: 106)
- Rangers (Offense rating: 107 (vs RHP: 108), RPs: 84 (top RPs: 98)) SP: LHP Andrew Heaney (5 GS, 23.0 IP, 6.26 ERA, 5.64 FIP, 5 xFIP, 4.57 park neutral projection, Rating: 107)
- SideLine: Nationals have a 37% win probability (+169) … B grade price: +180 or better… A grade price: +202 or better
- Nationals -1.5 wins 25% of the time (+294) … B grade price: +327 … A grade price: +414
- Nationals +1.5 wins 54% of the time (-116) … B grade price: -112 … A grade price: -104
- Nationals win (pushes removed) the first five innings 41% of the time (+145) … B grade price: +155 … A grade price: +169
- Nationals -0.5 wins 34% of the time (+192) … B grade price: +205 … A grade price: +235
- Nationals +0.5 wins 50% of the time (-101) … B grade price: +103 … A grade price: +112
- SideLine: Rangers have a 63% win probability (-169) … B grade price: -164 or better… A grade price: -153 or better
- Rangers -1.5 wins 46% of the time (+116) … B grade price: +121 … A grade price: +132
- Rangers +1.5 wins 75% of the time (-294) … B grade price: -284 … A grade price: -265
- Rangers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 59% of the time (-145) … B grade price: -136 … A grade price: -131
- Rangers -0.5 wins 50% of the time (+101) … B grade price: +105 … A grade price: +114
- Rangers +0.5 wins 66% of the time (-192) … B grade price: -186 … A grade price: -174
- SideLine Projected Total: 9.4 (F5: 5)

8:10pm ET: Guardians at Astros
- First pitch: 75 degrees, roof open
- Approx end: 74 degrees, roof open
- The park adjusts the runs by 0% and the weather adjusts it another 1%
- Guardians (Offense rating: 101 (vs RHP: 105), RPs: 79 (top RPs: 79)) SP: RHP Triston McKenzie (5 GS, 22.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 6.07 xFIP, 4.51 park neutral projection, Rating: 102)
- Astros (Offense rating: 126 (vs RHP: 123), RPs: 96 (top RPs: 87)) SP: RHP Justin Verlander (2 GS, 10.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 4.2 park neutral projection, Rating: 89)
- SideLine: Guardians have a 41% win probability (+143) … B grade price: +150 or better… A grade price: +167 or better
- Guardians -1.5 wins 29% of the time (+244) … B grade price: +265 … A grade price: +318
- Guardians +1.5 wins 58% of the time (-139) … B grade price: -134 … A grade price: -125
- Guardians win (pushes removed) the first five innings 42% of the time (+139) … B grade price: +148 … A grade price: +162
- Guardians -0.5 wins 35% of the time (+185) … B grade price: +197 … A grade price: +225
- Guardians +0.5 wins 51% of the time (-104) … B grade price: -100 … A grade price: +108
- SideLine: Astros have a 59% win probability (-143) … B grade price: -138 or better… A grade price: -129 or better
- Astros -1.5 wins 42% of the time (+139) … B grade price: +146 … A grade price: +162
- Astros +1.5 wins 71% of the time (-244) … B grade price: -236 … A grade price: -220
- Astros win (pushes removed) the first five innings 58% of the time (-139) … B grade price: -131 … A grade price: -126
- Astros -0.5 wins 49% of the time (+104) … B grade price: +109 … A grade price: +118
- Astros +0.5 wins 65% of the time (-185) … B grade price: -179 … A grade price: -167
- SideLine Projected Total: 9 (F5: 4.8)

9:40pm ET: Dodgers at Diamondbacks
- First pitch: 82 degrees, roof closed
- Approx end: 74 degrees, roof closed
- The park adjusts the runs by 0% and the weather adjusts it another 0%
- Dodgers (Offense rating: 132 (vs RHP: 134), RPs: 93 (top RPs: 88)) SP: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 GS, 28.0 IP, 3.54 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 2.62 xFIP, 3.78 park neutral projection, Rating: 77)
- Diamondbacks (Offense rating: 106 (vs RHP: 105), RPs: 113 (top RPs: 114)) SP: RHP Zac Gallen (6 GS, 32.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 3.87 park neutral projection, Rating: 78)
- SideLine: Dodgers have a 55% win probability (-122) … B grade price: -117 or better… A grade price: -109 or better
- Dodgers -1.5 wins 42% of the time (+137) … B grade price: +143 … A grade price: +158
- Dodgers +1.5 wins 72% of the time (-261) … B grade price: -252 … A grade price: -236
- Dodgers win (pushes removed) the first five innings 51% of the time (-105) … B grade price: +101 … A grade price: +107
- Dodgers -0.5 wins 43% of the time (+132) … B grade price: +138 … A grade price: +152
- Dodgers +0.5 wins 59% of the time (-144) … B grade price: -140 … A grade price: -130
- SideLine: Diamondbacks have a 45% win probability (+122) … B grade price: +127 or better… A grade price: +139 or better
- Diamondbacks -1.5 wins 28% of the time (+261) … B grade price: +286 … A grade price: +349
- Diamondbacks +1.5 wins 58% of the time (-137) … B grade price: -132 … A grade price: -123
- Diamondbacks win (pushes removed) the first five innings 49% of the time (+105) … B grade price: +112 … A grade price: +119
- Diamondbacks -0.5 wins 41% of the time (+144) … B grade price: +152 … A grade price: +169
- Diamondbacks +0.5 wins 57% of the time (-132) … B grade price: -127 … A grade price: -119
- SideLine Projected Total: 8.5 (F5: 4.2)

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About me

I’m a PhD statistician who has built mathematical models to predict MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB and NHL. The models provided totals, team totals, and thresholds for ML picks to be +EV and top plays, the latter deriving from my expertise of probability. I believe our picks have an edge because most people don’t understand probability very well! For more explanations visit www.pickswiththeprofessor.com/new.

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My performance

23-24 CBB: 6% ROI on Play of the Day [n=258]
2023 CFB: 5% ROI on A grade sides [n=259]
2023 NFL: 22% ROI on A grade sides [n=91]
2023 MLB: 1% ROI on the POTD [n=200]
22-23 CBB: 9% ROI on A grade ML plays [n=185] in March (debut of ML model)
2022 CFB: 1% ROI picking every spread from Week 8 on [n=375]
2022 MLB: 4% ROI on A grade sides [n=647]

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