GregWaddell

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Greg's Daily Picks
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What to expect

Plays per day 5 - 9
Written analysis Moderate
Bankroll management 1 unit = 1.00% of bankroll
Specialties Spread, Parlays, Player Props

Recent plays

(more than 7 days old)

National Championship Plays

GregWaddell Published 1 month ago

ELITE 8 RECORDS:
- Public Daily Picks Videos: N/A
- Dub Club Full Card Picks: 2-1 (+0.8U)

SEASON RECORDS:
- Public Daily Picks Videos: 174-162-6 (-5.47U)
- Dub Club Full Card Picks: 361-389-7 (+67.21U)

Very much on the right side of things in the Final Four. The parlay just missed but wasn’t far off.

WINS:
UConn -11.5 vs. Alabama (-112)
Purdue -9 vs. NC State (-110)

LOSS:
PARLAY: Purdue -14.5 & UConn -17 (+860)

National Championship Plays:
Purdue +7 vs. UConn (-115)
Purdue ML (+245)

Here’s my read: These teams are much closer to equals than it appears. Purdue has been so dominant outside of Big Ten opponents. Edey should win the battle with Clingan. They just need a good Braden Smith game…and he can’t possibly play as bad as he did in the F4 again. Purdue’s been shooting the ball better in the tournament than UConn and I think that can continue. I had Purdue beating UConn in my bracket before the NCAAT and I haven’t seen anything from either side that makes me want to change that.

UConn’s 11-0 run in the NCAAT the last two years has been incredible…but they have not played a team higher than a 3-seed in those games. Purdue is legitimate - they are not getting blown out. I would have capped this game at UConn -3.5. The value is too good not to bet both Purdue to cover and Purdue to win.

Thanks for following along this season! I’ll send an update once I’m home from Phoenix.

FINAL FOUR CARD

GregWaddell Published 1 month ago

ELITE 8 RECORDS:
- Public Daily Picks Videos: N/A
- Dub Club Full Card Picks: 3-4 (+0.27U)

SEASON RECORDS:
- Public Daily Picks Videos: 174-162-6 (-5.47U)
- Dub Club Full Card Picks: 359-388-7 (+66.41U)

NC State ML saved the Elite 8 card. Started 0-4, finished 3-0. To the Final Four!

WINS:
Purdue -3 vs. Tennessee (-110)
NC State +7 vs. Duke (-110)
NC State ML (+245)

LOSSES:
Illinois +8.5 vs. UConn (-112)
Illinois ML (+340)
Clemson +3.5 vs. Alabama (-112)
Clemson ML (+140)

FINAL FOUR PLAYS:
UConn -11.5 vs. Alabama (-112)
Purdue -9 vs. NC State (-110)
PARLAY: Purdue -14.5 & UConn -17 (+860)

Pretty simple overview from me here, folks. I think both the elite teams roll here. UConn is so absurdly good, all they do is blow teams out in the NCAAT. Bama has been fortunate to get here and will need to shoot the absolute lights out to hang. After a couple games of making shots…I think tonight goes the other way and the UConn avalanche happens again.

On the other side, let’s keep it simple. NC State is 26 spots lower than Wisconsin on KenPom and 27 spots lower than Michigan State. That’s a gift. DJ Burns is awesome and he is nearly a full foot shorter than Edey. Just a horrid matchup for him. If the Boilermakers play their A game they win by 25+.

Parlaying the alt lines here to get some great return. I really think we’re headed toward two blowout slaughters in the semis, before a CLASSIC in the title game.

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Three consecutive seasons of +30U in CBB ATS picks.

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